What to Know

  • BTC/USD traded around 65,702 on Thursday morning, slightly below this week’s high of 67,000.
  • Some technical traders are watching a bullish setup that targets 70,000 with a stop-loss at 61,000 over a 1-2 day timeline.
  • A bearish scenario would target 61,000 with a stop-loss at 70,000 if support fails.
  • Bitcoin came under pressure as US-Iran tensions intensified and investors turned more cautious.
  • Brent and WTI rose to $95 and $88, respectively, reaching their highest levels since June 16 as energy-market risk increased.
  • Market pricing now points to nearly 70% odds that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates by the end of the year.
  • Spot Bitcoin ETFs added over $1 billion in assets in the last seven days, while net inflows for the month stand above $700 million.
  • Bitcoin ETFs previously saw redemptions worth close to $7 billion in May and June.
  • Bitcoin remains above its 50-day moving average, with 64,000 viewed as a key invalidation area for the bullish case.
  • The Percentage Price Oscillator has strengthened, with its two lines rising and crossing the neutral line.

Bitcoin pauses after a strong rebound

Bitcoin’s latest advance has slowed as traders weigh stronger exchange-traded fund demand against a less supportive macro backdrop. BTC/USD was trading at 65,702 on Thursday morning, sitting slightly below this week’s high of 67,000. The move reflects a market that has recovered sharply from its earlier-month low but is now struggling to extend momentum while geopolitical risk, oil prices, and rate expectations dominate the broader risk conversation.

The immediate technical debate is relatively clear. Some market participants continue to frame the short-term setup as constructive while Bitcoin holds above its major support zones. In that bullish view, buyers would look for continuation toward 70,000, while risk would be managed with a stop-loss at 61,000. The relevant timeline for that scenario is 1-2 days, underscoring that this is a short-term trade framework rather than a long-duration investment thesis.

The alternative view is that the rally has already lost enough momentum to expose Bitcoin to a deeper pullback. In that bearish setup, traders would sell BTC/USD and aim for 61,000, with a stop-loss at 70,000. That structure places the current market between a well-defined upside target and a downside support zone, making the next reaction around the moving average area especially important.

Geopolitical tensions dampen risk appetite

Bitcoin came under pressure as geopolitical tensions intensified, with the US and Iran continuing their attacks. The cautious tone was not limited to digital assets. In Wall Street trading, the Dow Jones Index rose by just 40 points, while the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 indices retreated slightly. That mixed performance points to an environment where investors are not fully abandoning risk assets, but are also not aggressively adding exposure while uncertainty remains elevated.

The Middle East crisis has become especially important because of its impact on energy prices. Brent and West Texas Intermediate rose to $95 and $88, respectively, as crude benchmarks climbed to their highest levels since June 16. Market participants are concerned that these prices could continue rising if the conflict escalates further. Trump has warned that he will target key infrastructure projects near Tehran, adding another layer of uncertainty to the outlook for oil supply and inflation expectations.

For Bitcoin, the connection between oil and price action is indirect but meaningful. Higher crude prices can feed inflation concerns, which can influence central bank expectations. Bitcoin often trades as a risk asset during periods of macro stress, particularly when investors are focused on liquidity, interest rates, and the relative attractiveness of holding volatile assets. As a result, even though Bitcoin is not tied to oil supply fundamentals, energy-market shocks can still affect sentiment across crypto markets.

Fed expectations create a headwind for crypto

One of the clearest macro risks for Bitcoin is the shift in Federal Reserve expectations. As the US-Iran conflict continues and oil prices climb, investors now anticipate that the Federal Reserve may hike interest rates by the end of the year. The odds of a hike have jumped to nearly 70%, a notable development for traders who had been positioning around a more supportive policy backdrop.

Bitcoin and other altcoins normally underperform when the Federal Reserve is hiking rates. Higher rates can reduce appetite for speculative assets by increasing the return available on lower-risk instruments and tightening financial conditions. That dynamic can be especially important for crypto because much of the market’s strongest momentum often appears during periods when liquidity is improving and investors are willing to accept higher volatility.

The current setup therefore contains a tension. On one side, Bitcoin’s technical picture has improved since its earlier-month low. On the other, macro conditions are less straightforward because rising oil prices have revived inflation worries and increased the probability of a more hawkish central bank response. Until that conflict is resolved, BTC/USD may remain sensitive to headlines that alter expectations for energy prices and interest rates.

ETF inflows provide a major bullish counterweight

Despite the macro caution, Bitcoin has a strong support factor in the form of renewed ETF demand. Data shows that spot Bitcoin ETFs have added over $1 billion in assets in the last seven days. Including outflows, Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net inflows of over $700 million this month. That matters because these products previously faced redemptions worth close to $7 billion in May and June.

The shift from heavy redemptions to positive inflows suggests that some investors are once again accumulating Bitcoin through regulated market vehicles. ETF flows are closely watched because they can reveal institutional and adviser-driven demand that may not always be visible through crypto exchange activity alone. Sustained inflows can also help absorb selling pressure, particularly during periods when retail sentiment is uneven or macro news is unsettled.

Still, ETF demand does not guarantee a straight-line rally. If the macro backdrop worsens, inflows may slow or become less effective in supporting price. The key question for traders is whether ETF accumulation can offset the pressure from rising yields expectations, oil-driven inflation concerns, and defensive positioning across global markets. For now, the inflow data gives bulls a credible argument, but the market still needs price confirmation above nearby resistance.

Strategy’s stance and Washington policy hopes support sentiment

Bitcoin has also benefited from recent actions by Strategy, described as the biggest digital asset treasury company in the world. The company has not sold any coins in the last two weeks, easing concerns that its prior plans could add pressure to the market. Earlier this month, Bitcoin bottomed at 57,768 as Strategy revealed its plan to start selling Bitcoin. Since then, BTC/USD has staged a strong comeback and is now trading comfortably above the resistance at 65,000.

Policy expectations in Washington are another supportive factor for sentiment. There is a likelihood that the Senate will pass the CLARITY Act, a development that market participants are watching closely. Clearer rules for digital assets could help reduce regulatory uncertainty, although traders are likely to remain cautious until the legislative path becomes more certain. In crypto markets, policy optimism can be powerful, but it is often vulnerable to delays, revisions, and shifting political priorities.

Together, ETF inflows, Strategy’s recent decision not to sell, and optimism around possible legislative progress have helped stabilize Bitcoin after earlier weakness. These factors do not remove the risk of a pullback, but they explain why buyers have been willing to defend key levels despite a more complicated global market backdrop.

BTC/USD technical picture: 64,000 is the line to watch

The daily chart shows that Bitcoin has recovered decisively from its earlier-month low at 57,768. The pair is now above the 65,000 resistance area, which has shifted attention toward the next major upside target at 70,000. Bulls will want to see BTC/USD maintain its position above the 50-day moving average, which has provided substantial support during the recovery.

Momentum indicators have also improved. The two lines of the Percentage Price Oscillator have continued rising and have crossed the neutral line. That kind of movement can support a constructive short-term reading because it suggests that upside momentum has strengthened after the earlier rebound. However, momentum indicators are not guarantees, and traders typically look for confirmation through price action around support and resistance.

The key invalidation level for the bullish view is a drop below the 50-day moving average at 64,000. If Bitcoin falls under that area, the near-term structure would weaken and the bearish target at 61,000 could become more relevant. Conversely, if buyers defend 64,000 and push price back toward this week’s high of 67,000, the market may keep focusing on a move toward 70,000.

Outlook: bulls have support, but macro risk remains elevated

The near-term BTC/USD outlook is balanced between improving crypto-specific demand and a more difficult macro environment. ETF inflows, a rebound from 57,768, and sustained trade above the 50-day moving average keep the bullish case alive. At the same time, rising crude prices, nearly 70% odds of a Federal Reserve hike by the end of the year, and geopolitical uncertainty make it harder for traders to chase upside without confirmation.

For short-term traders, 64,000 and 61,000 are the most important downside markers, while 67,000 and 70,000 define the path higher. A clean hold above the moving average would preserve the constructive view, especially if ETF inflows remain positive. A break below that zone would suggest that the rally has stalled more seriously and that sellers are regaining control.

FXCOINZ views the setup as a market caught between accumulation and caution. Bitcoin has the technical foundation to extend higher, but the rally needs to prove it can withstand oil-driven inflation fears and the possibility of tighter monetary policy. Until then, BTC/USD remains a tactical market where disciplined risk management is just as important as directional conviction.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Why did Bitcoin’s rally stall near 67,000?

Bitcoin’s rally slowed as geopolitical tensions intensified and investors became more cautious. BTC/USD traded around 65,702 on Thursday morning, slightly below this week’s high of 67,000, while broader risk assets also showed mixed performance.

What is the bullish BTC/USD target?

Some technical traders are watching a bullish setup that targets 70,000. That view uses a stop-loss at 61,000 and is framed around a 1-2 day timeline.

What is the bearish BTC/USD scenario?

The bearish scenario is based on selling BTC/USD with a take-profit target at 61,000 and a stop-loss at 70,000. This view becomes more relevant if Bitcoin loses key technical support.

Why are oil prices important for Bitcoin right now?

Oil prices matter because higher energy costs can increase inflation concerns and influence Federal Reserve expectations. Brent and WTI rose to $95 and $88, respectively, as the US-Iran conflict continued.

How do Federal Reserve expectations affect Bitcoin?

Bitcoin and other altcoins often underperform when the Federal Reserve is hiking rates. Investors now see nearly 70% odds of a rate hike by the end of the year, which creates a potential headwind for crypto markets.

Are Bitcoin ETF flows supporting the market?

Yes. Spot Bitcoin ETFs added over $1 billion in assets in the last seven days, and net inflows for the month are above $700 million, after redemptions worth close to $7 billion in May and June.

What technical level could invalidate the bullish view?

A drop below the 50-day moving average at 64,000 would invalidate the bullish view. If that happens, traders may focus more closely on the 61,000 downside target.

What role has Strategy played in Bitcoin sentiment?

Strategy has helped sentiment because it has not sold any coins in the last two weeks. Earlier this month, Bitcoin bottomed at 57,768 after the company revealed its plan to start selling Bitcoin.

Could Bitcoin still reach 70,000?

Bitcoin could continue toward 70,000 if buyers defend support and momentum remains firm. However, that outlook is conditional on BTC/USD holding key levels and avoiding a stronger macro-driven selloff.

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