What to Know

  • EUR/USD extended its downward trend and fell to 1.1430, the lowest level since July 29.
  • The pair is down 2.40% from its highest level in August, when it reached 1.1710.
  • Market participants are focused on upcoming flash manufacturing and services PMI data from the US and the European Union.
  • Eurozone manufacturing PMI is expected at 52.6, while services PMI is expected at 51.7.
  • US manufacturing PMI is expected at 53.6, down from 53.9, while services PMI is expected at 55.8 from 56.5.
  • Federal Reserve rate-hike expectations are supporting the US dollar, after the cash rate was brought to between 3.75% and 4%.
  • Inflation has remained above the 2% target for over 5 years, keeping another potential rate hike in focus.
  • Brent and WTI crude oil have dropped below the important support level of $100, adding another macro driver for currency traders to monitor.
  • The Average Directional Index has risen to 29.17, its highest level since September 10, signaling firm trend momentum.
  • Technical traders see 1.1353 as the next bearish target, while a move above 1.1500 would challenge the negative setup.

EUR/USD Extends Its Slide Ahead of PMI Releases

EUR/USD remained under pressure on September 23, 2026, as the pair continued the downward trend that began in August. The move lower carried the exchange rate to 1.1430, marking its weakest level since July 29 and underscoring the strength of the US dollar rally. The pair has now fallen 2.40% from its August high of 1.1710, leaving traders focused on whether upcoming economic data will reinforce the bearish tone or trigger a short-term rebound.

The immediate focus is on flash manufacturing and services PMI numbers from the United States and the European Union. These data points are closely watched because they offer an early read on business activity across major sectors of the economy. For currency markets, PMI releases can influence expectations around growth, inflation pressure, and central bank policy. A stronger-than-expected reading in the United States could support the dollar further, while stronger Eurozone figures could offer the euro some relief.

Economists expect the Eurozone manufacturing PMI to rise to 52.6 and the services PMI to rise to 51.7. A PMI reading above 50 signals expansion, which means both sectors are expected to remain in growth territory. Even so, traders will be watching not only whether the figures remain above that threshold, but also whether the pace of expansion appears strong enough to shift sentiment toward the euro.

In the United States, the flash manufacturing PMI is expected at 53.6, slightly below the prior 53.9 reading. The services PMI is expected at 55.8, compared with the previous 56.5. Both figures are still expected to remain comfortably above 50, which could keep the US economic backdrop comparatively resilient. For EUR/USD, that matters because stronger US data can increase confidence that the Federal Reserve has room to keep policy restrictive.

Fed Rate Expectations Keep the Dollar Supported

The latest EUR/USD weakness has coincided with rising optimism among market participants that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates at least one more time this year. The central bank has already delivered its first rate hike of the year, lifting the cash rate to between 3.75% and 4%. That move has reinforced the rate advantage supporting the dollar, especially as inflation remains a policy concern.

Consumer and producer inflation have remained above the 2% target for over 5 years, a backdrop that gives policymakers less room to pivot quickly toward easier financial conditions. While markets can shift rapidly around fresh inflation or labor-market data, the current narrative still leaves room for another potential increase if officials remain concerned that price pressures are not returning to target fast enough.

For the euro, the challenge is that the dollar tends to benefit when investors believe US rates may stay higher or rise further. Higher rates can make dollar-denominated assets more attractive, particularly when growth data also remains firm. That relationship does not guarantee a one-way move, but it helps explain why EUR/USD has struggled to sustain rebounds while the Federal Reserve remains in focus.

Some traders are also monitoring the effect of falling crude oil prices. Brent and West Texas Intermediate have dropped below the important support level of $100. The decline extended as US representatives Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff met with Iranian officials in New York. Oil-price developments can influence inflation expectations, trade balances, and broader risk sentiment, all of which can feed into currency-market positioning.

Technical Picture Favors the Bears Below 1.1500

The technical picture remains negative for EUR/USD. The daily chart shows a sustained downward trend in recent months, with the pair sliding from 1.1710 in August to 1.1430 this week. That decline has taken EUR/USD below the 50-day moving average and the Supertrend indicator, both of which are commonly watched by trend-following traders.

The Average Directional Index has climbed to 29.17, its highest level since September 10. A rising ADX does not identify direction by itself, but it does measure trend strength. In the current setup, the increase reinforces the view that downward momentum remains active, particularly because price action is also breaking below widely followed technical references.

Market participants using a bearish framework are watching 1.1353 as the next potential target. That level is significant because it represents the lowest level reached in July this year. If sellers remain in control and upcoming PMI data do not shift the macro narrative, the path of least resistance may continue pointing lower toward that area.

In that bearish scenario, some technical traders would consider selling EUR/USD with a take-profit target at 1.1353 and a stop-loss at 1.1500. The timeline associated with that setup is 1-2 days, which frames it as a short-term signal rather than a long-range currency forecast. The key idea is that the pair remains vulnerable while trading below the psychological 1.1500 level.

The bullish counterview is more conditional. Traders looking for a rebound may consider buying EUR/USD with a take-profit target at 1.1500 and a stop-loss at 1.1353. That scenario depends on whether the pair can stabilize near current levels and attract dip-buying, potentially helped by stronger Eurozone data, softer US data, or a shift in expectations around Federal Reserve policy.

Why the 1.1500 Level Matters

The 1.1500 level has become the central line in the current EUR/USD setup. It is described as a psychological level, which means it may attract attention because round numbers often become reference points for traders. These levels can influence order placement, sentiment, and short-term risk management, especially when they align with broader technical signals.

As long as EUR/USD remains below 1.1500, bearish traders are likely to argue that sellers retain control. A recovery above that level would not automatically create a major uptrend, but it would weaken the immediate downside case and challenge the idea that the pair is heading directly toward 1.1353. For that reason, 1.1500 functions as both a potential stop-loss area for bearish positioning and a near-term upside objective for bullish traders.

The current setup highlights the interaction between macro catalysts and technical structure. PMI data can provide the spark, but trend indicators and key levels determine how traders interpret the move. If economic data reinforce dollar strength, the existing downtrend could extend. If data undercut the dollar or boost confidence in the euro, EUR/USD may attempt to recover toward 1.1500.

FXCOINZ Market View

FXCOINZ market coverage shows EUR/USD sitting at an important short-term junction. The broader structure remains bearish after the break below the 50-day moving average and the Supertrend indicator, while the ADX reading at 29.17 suggests that the trend has meaningful strength. That combination favors caution for euro bulls unless price action improves.

Still, the next move may depend heavily on the PMI releases. Currency traders often respond sharply when business-activity data diverge from expectations, particularly when central bank policy is already a dominant theme. With US manufacturing and services readings still expected to remain above 50, the dollar may continue to draw support if the data confirm resilience.

The euro needs a clearer positive catalyst to reverse the current tone. Stronger Eurozone PMIs could help, but the pair would likely need to regain and hold the 1.1500 area to weaken the bearish structure. Until then, 1.1353 remains the downside level in focus for chart watchers tracking continuation of the August decline.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Why is EUR/USD falling?

EUR/USD is falling as the US dollar rally continues, supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates at least one more time this year. The pair has also broken below key technical indicators, reinforcing the bearish tone.

What level is EUR/USD trading near?

EUR/USD slipped to 1.1430, its lowest level since July 29. The move leaves the pair down 2.40% from its August high of 1.1710.

What is the bearish target for EUR/USD?

Technical traders are watching 1.1353 as the next bearish target. That level is important because it was the lowest level reached in July this year.

What would invalidate the bearish EUR/USD setup?

The bearish setup would be challenged if EUR/USD moves above the psychological 1.1500 level. A sustained move above that area could weaken the immediate downside view.

Which PMI data matter for EUR/USD?

Traders are focused on flash manufacturing and services PMI data from the United States and the European Union. Eurozone manufacturing PMI is expected at 52.6 and services PMI at 51.7, while US manufacturing PMI is expected at 53.6 and services PMI at 55.8.

Why does a PMI reading above 50 matter?

A PMI reading above 50 signals that the sector is expanding. This matters for currency markets because stronger activity can influence growth expectations, inflation outlooks, and central bank policy pricing.

How does Federal Reserve policy affect EUR/USD?

Federal Reserve policy affects EUR/USD because higher US interest rates can support the dollar. The cash rate has been brought to between 3.75% and 4%, and another possible hike remains in focus because inflation has stayed above the 2% target for over 5 years.

What role are oil prices playing?

Brent and WTI crude oil have dropped below the important support level of $100. Oil-price moves can influence inflation expectations and broader market sentiment, which can indirectly affect EUR/USD trading.

Is the EUR/USD signal short term?

Yes. The cited bearish and bullish trade frameworks use a 1-2 day timeline, making them short-term trading scenarios rather than long-term forecasts.