What to Know

  • U.S. stock futures fell Monday morning after the U.S. confirmed strikes on Iran’s Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend.
  • Iranian state media said Tehran retaliated with attacks on U.S. bases in Jordan, reviving concerns about Middle East supply risk.
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were down 111 points, or 0.21%, at 53,473, while S&P 500 futures slipped 22.25 points, or 0.29%, to 7,699.75.
  • Nasdaq-100 futures lost 76.00 points, or 0.26%, to 29,415.75 as technology shares faced renewed pressure from rising yields.
  • WTI crude traded above $86 per barrel, up more than 3%, while Brent moved above $91, also up more than 3%.
  • Energy stocks gained, with Halliburton, Chevron, Valero, Occidental Petroleum and Exxon Mobil all higher in premarket trading.
  • The 10-year Treasury yield rose more than 3 basis points to 4.754%, its highest level since January 2025.
  • PG&E sank 16% after California lawmakers blocked a proposal to limit wildfire-liability damages against utilities.
  • Friday’s August employment report is the next major data point likely to influence the rate outlook and equity sentiment.

Futures Weaken as Oil Risk Returns

U.S. equity futures opened the week under pressure as a sharp rise in crude oil prices forced investors to reassess geopolitical risk, inflation expectations and the resilience of technology-heavy benchmarks. The move followed U.S. confirmation of strikes on Iran’s Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, a location closely watched by energy traders because of its proximity to one of the world’s most sensitive oil shipping corridors.

Iranian state media said Tehran responded with attacks on U.S. bases in Jordan. The developments marked the first publicly acknowledged U.S. strike on Iranian positions since late July, adding a fresh geopolitical shock to a market already balancing elevated bond yields and stretched technology leadership. For index traders, the immediate issue is not only whether the conflict escalates, but whether crude prices stay firm enough to complicate the interest-rate outlook.

At the opening, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were lower by 111 points, or 0.21%, at 53,473. S&P 500 Index futures fell 22.25 points, or 0.29%, to 7,699.75. Nasdaq-100 Index futures declined 76.00 points, or 0.26%, to 29,415.75. The losses were measured rather than disorderly, but the tone showed a market less willing to extend recent gains while oil and yields moved higher together.

Energy Shares Rally, but Broader Indices Lag

The clearest pocket of strength was energy. WTI crude traded above $86 per barrel Monday morning, gaining more than 3%, while Brent moved above $91 and also rose more than 3%. That shift reversed part of last week’s action, when crude lost more than 4% as traders removed war premium from prices. Monday’s trading showed that the premium can return quickly when the Strait of Hormuz is back at the center of headlines.

Energy equities responded accordingly. Halliburton rose more than 2.5% in premarket trading, while Chevron added 2%. Valero and Occidental Petroleum were both higher by about 2%, and Exxon Mobil gained more than 1.5%. Chevron’s advance also gave the Dow direct exposure to the oil move, but that was not enough to pull the broader indices higher.

The split between energy and the rest of the market is important. Higher oil prices can lift producers, refiners and oilfield-service names, but they may also raise concerns about input costs, inflation persistence and consumer pressure. That makes the oil rally a mixed signal for equities. In Monday’s setup, traders appeared willing to reward energy exposure while reducing risk elsewhere, particularly in areas more sensitive to bond yields.

S&P 500 Futures Hold Near a Key Former High

September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures were trading just above the former record high at 7,693.75. Technical traders are watching whether that level can act as new support after previously serving as a major ceiling. Holding above it would suggest buyers are attempting to turn the old top into a new bottom, a constructive signal for those looking for the broader uptrend to stabilize.

The next important support area sits at the main bottom of 7,657.75. A move through that level would reaffirm the downtrend that began on August 18, when sellers took out 7,724.25. On the upside, the new secondary lower top is 7,782.50. A trade through that point would shift the trend back to up and could encourage technical traders to rebuild long exposure.

If sellers push futures below 7,657.75, attention would likely move to the 50-day moving average at 7,603.14 and an intermediate 50% level at 7,581.25. Those levels matter because they give market participants reference points for whether Monday’s weakness is a short-term reaction to geopolitical news or the beginning of a deeper technical reset.

Nasdaq-100 Tests Its 50-Day Moving Average

The Nasdaq-100 entered the session in a more delicate position, with September E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures straddling the 50-day moving average at 29,411.40. For many chart watchers, reaction to that indicator could define the tone for the week. A sustained move above the 50-day moving average would suggest buyers are defending a widely followed trend measure despite the pressure from oil and yields.

If buyers regain control, the Nasdaq-100 could attempt a labored rally into resistance at 29,610.75, 29,645.00, 29,809.75 and the minor swing top at 29,811.50. The word labored matters because the backdrop is not clean. Higher long-term yields can weigh on growth-oriented shares by reducing the present value of future earnings, and the technology sector has been one of the strongest areas of the market during August.

A sustained move under 29,411.40 would signal that sellers have the upper hand. In that case, futures could extend toward the intermediate 50% level at 29,150.75, followed by the main bottom at 28,946.75. Those are the downside reference points traders are likely to monitor if bond yields remain elevated and crude continues to price in geopolitical risk.

Treasury Yields Keep Pressure on Growth Stocks

The rise in Treasury yields added another layer of pressure. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed more than 3 basis points to 4.754%, its highest level since January 2025. The 30-year yield gained more than 4 basis points to 5.255%, while the 2-year yield was little changed near 4.34%. The pattern showed renewed stress at the long end of the curve, which is often where equity valuation concerns become most visible.

The Treasury Department had tried earlier in the month to calm the bond market through larger debt repurchases, but that relief did not hold. Comments from Warsh on Friday also kept rate anxiety alive after he said better summer inflation readings did not prove that the underlying trend had improved. Barclays economist Jonathan Millar said a September rate increase was more likely than not after the speech, and the firm also expects a December hike.

For equities, this creates a difficult mix. Oil strength can revive inflation concern, long-end yields can pressure valuations, and major labor data still lies ahead. Friday’s August employment report is therefore more than a routine macro release. It is the next major test for whether investors continue to price in tighter policy risk or find reasons to stabilize growth-sensitive shares.

August Strength Faces a New Test

The latest futures weakness comes after a strong August for major U.S. benchmarks. The Dow is up 2.1% for the month and is on track for a fifth straight monthly gain. The S&P 500 is up about 3%, while the Nasdaq Composite is higher by roughly 4%. Both the Dow and S&P 500 reached record highs earlier in August, underlining how quickly sentiment can shift when external shocks arrive near elevated levels.

Technology leadership had been especially strong. The S&P 500 technology sector gained nearly 6% during the month. Nvidia added more than 8%, Microsoft rose 10%, and Micron climbed 13%. That momentum now faces a tougher environment if yields remain high and investors become more selective about paying for growth.

Global markets offered a mixed lead into Monday’s U.S. session. Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped 0.14%, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.18%. South Korea’s Kospi gained 0.46% after reversing an earlier loss. Mainland China’s CSI 300 rose 0.35%, and Hong Kong finished flat. Europe was mixed, with energy shares supported by higher crude prices, while U.K. markets were closed for a public holiday.

Corporate Movers Add to the Session’s Volatility

Single-stock news also shaped early trading. PG&E dropped 16% after California lawmakers blocked a proposal to limit wildfire-liability damages against utilities. The move put renewed focus on the risk profile of utilities exposed to wildfire-related claims and regulatory uncertainty.

Pinterest fell more than 3% after disclosing that Chief Financial Officer Julia Brau Donnelly will leave at the end of October. Aon lost 1.8% after announcing a $17 billion deal to buy USI Insurance Services from KKR. In contrast, GameStop gained 4% after preliminary second-quarter results showed higher operating income despite lower sales, while Deere added 1% after Baird upgraded the stock on expectations for stronger farm-equipment demand.

What Traders Are Watching Next

For the broader market, Monday’s close around key levels may carry more weight than the opening reaction. The S&P 500 futures level at 7,693.75 is the immediate line in focus, with 7,657.75 underneath as the main bottom. For the Nasdaq-100, the 50-day moving average at 29,411.40 is the key pivot. A close above or below these areas could shape expectations for the rest of the week.

Until Friday’s jobs report arrives, the market is likely to remain sensitive to two forces: the Middle East premium in oil and the repricing of long-term Treasury yields. If crude holds its gains and yields continue to rise, technology and broad index futures may struggle to regain momentum. If oil stabilizes and bond yields ease, buyers may attempt to defend the recent August advance.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Why did U.S. stock futures fall Monday?

U.S. stock futures fell as strikes involving Iran’s Larak Island lifted crude oil prices and revived concerns over Middle East supply risk. Higher Treasury yields also pressured sentiment, especially for technology shares.

How much were S&P 500 futures down?

S&P 500 Index futures were down 22.25 points, or 0.29%, at 7,699.75 during the Monday morning move described by FXCOINZ market coverage.

What level matters most for S&P 500 futures?

Technical traders are watching 7,693.75, the former record high, as a key near-term level. Holding above it could suggest support, while a break of 7,657.75 would reaffirm the recent downtrend.

Why is the Nasdaq-100 under pressure?

The Nasdaq-100 is facing pressure from rising long-term Treasury yields and caution ahead of the August employment report. Futures are also straddling the 50-day moving average at 29,411.40, making that level important for short-term direction.

What happened to oil prices?

WTI crude traded above $86 per barrel and rose more than 3%, while Brent moved above $91 and also gained more than 3%. Traders added war premium back into oil after the latest Middle East developments.

Which energy stocks gained?

Halliburton rose more than 2.5% in premarket trading, Chevron added 2%, Valero and Occidental Petroleum were both higher by about 2%, and Exxon Mobil gained more than 1.5%.

Why are Treasury yields important for stocks?

Higher Treasury yields can make equity valuations harder to justify, particularly for growth and technology shares. The 10-year yield rose more than 3 basis points to 4.754%, its highest level since January 2025.

What is the next major market catalyst?

Friday’s August employment report is the next major data point for markets. It could influence expectations around the rate outlook and help determine whether equity weakness deepens or stabilizes.

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