Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: OPEC+ September Hike in Focus as WTI Tests Key Resistance

What to Know

• OPEC+ is expected to vote on an additional September production increase of 188,000 barrels per day.
• The planned September move would complete the roll-out of the 1.65 million barrels per day in voluntary production cuts announced in 2023.
• Market participants expect OPEC+ to pause additional output increases from October through December while broader cuts remain in place.
• Roughly 2 million barrels per day of broader production cuts could remain active as members negotiate quotas for 2027.
• Middle East tensions linked to Iran continue to cloud the supply outlook and may affect available spare capacity.
• U.S. commercial crude oil stockpiles rose by 2.0 million barrels during the week ended July 17, according to EIA data.
• U.S. refinery utilization rates stayed above 96%, pointing to resilient fuel demand during the summer driving season.
• Natural gas remains technically bearish below $2.756, with price trading near support and below key moving averages.
• WTI remains cautiously bearish below the $82.89 pivot, where moving-average resistance is clustered nearby.
• Brent remains bearish below $85.68, with major Fibonacci and moving-average barriers still overhead.

OPEC+ Policy Keeps Oil Traders on Alert

Oil markets remain tightly focused on the next OPEC+ policy step, with traders preparing for a meeting in early August that could shape the supply backdrop into September and beyond. The producer alliance is expected to approve another output increase of 188,000 barrels per day for September, a move that would complete the planned restoration tied to the 1.65 million barrels per day of voluntary cuts announced in 2023.

For crude traders, the expected increase is not just about the headline number. The broader issue is whether OPEC+ will continue restoring barrels later in the year or pause the process to preserve market balance. Current expectations suggest the alliance may signal a pause in additional output increases from October through December. If that happens, roughly 2 million barrels per day of broader production cuts would remain in place while member countries work through quota negotiations for 2027.

That policy path would create a more nuanced supply picture than a simple production increase might imply. A September hike could add barrels to the market, but a pause afterward would also suggest OPEC+ remains cautious about oversupplying a market still exposed to demand uncertainty, geopolitics and shifting inventory trends. For energy bulls, the pause element could help limit downside pressure. For bears, the September hike still represents additional supply at a time when crude prices face technical resistance.

Middle East Risks Complicate the Spare Capacity Outlook

Geopolitical risk remains another major influence across oil and liquefied natural gas markets. Middle East tensions connected to Iran continue to cloud the global supply outlook, even as OPEC+ prepares to gradually restore some production. Recent supply disruptions tied to regional tensions may reduce the amount of spare production capacity available to respond to future shortfalls.

Spare capacity matters because it acts as a buffer during unexpected disruptions. If available spare capacity is lower than anticipated, the market can become more sensitive to supply shocks, shipping risks or sudden changes in demand. That does not guarantee higher prices, but it can keep risk premiums embedded in crude and LNG-linked markets when traders perceive limited flexibility in the system.

The tension between planned production increases and geopolitical uncertainty helps explain why oil prices are not reacting to supply news in a purely bearish way. Additional OPEC+ production could weigh on sentiment, yet unresolved regional risk can offset part of that pressure. The result is a market that remains highly reactive around major technical levels, especially in WTI and Brent, where rallies are still meeting resistance.

Demand Signals Remain Mixed as Inventories Rise

On the demand side, the latest U.S. inventory data offered a mixed message. Commercial crude oil stockpiles increased by 2.0 million barrels during the week ended July 17, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. A stock build can suggest that supply exceeded demand over the period, though weekly inventory changes are often influenced by refinery operations, imports, exports and timing effects.

At the same time, U.S. refinery utilization rates remained above 96%, supporting the view that fuel demand has stayed healthy during the summer driving season. High refinery utilization typically indicates strong runs as refiners process crude into gasoline, diesel and other products. That can provide support to physical crude demand even when headline inventory figures show a build.

The EIA estimates that global liquids production will remain at 101.9 million barrels per day in 2026 before rising again in 2027. For market participants, that projection reinforces the importance of OPEC+ supply decisions, because the balance between production growth and consumption will determine whether inventories tighten or expand over time.

LNG Growth Supports Natural Gas Fundamentals, but Shipping Risks Persist

Natural gas fundamentals continue to draw support from the expansion of liquefied natural gas infrastructure, even as shipping concerns remain a source of uncertainty. The EIA noted that global LNG trade reached an all-time high in 2025, underscoring the growing role of LNG in connecting regional gas markets and meeting demand where pipeline access is limited.

Mexico has also entered the LNG export picture through shipments from the new Energia Costa Azul terminal. The facility added 0.4 billion cubic feet per day to global capacity and increased Mexico’s export capability by almost 3x. That expansion highlights the growing importance of North American LNG infrastructure in global energy trade.

Still, supply expectations remain sensitive to uncertainty around LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Concerns about that key shipping route can tighten expectations for global LNG availability and increase the importance of continued export growth from North America. For natural gas traders, the fundamental backdrop includes both longer-term demand support from LNG trade and shorter-term pressure from bearish price action.

Natural Gas Technical Outlook: Bears Hold Control Below $2.756

Natural gas remains under pressure after continuing to decline toward the $2.648 to $2.693 support area. Price is currently at $2.692, keeping it below the 50-EMA at $2.874 and the 100-EMA at $2.956. That positioning points to a strongly bearish short-term trend, with sellers still controlling the market below the main resistance zone.

The RSI has fallen to 28, placing natural gas in oversold territory. That may raise the possibility of a near-term correction, as oversold readings can signal that selling has become stretched. However, oversold conditions do not automatically mark a bottom. Technical traders often look for confirmation through a break above resistance or a failure by sellers to extend the decline.

Immediate resistance is seen at $2.756, followed by $2.816 and $2.897. Support levels are located at $2.648, $2.589 and $2.525. As long as natural gas remains below $2.756, the short-term outlook stays bearish. A break above that level could allow price to move toward $2.816, while a break below $2.648 could expose $2.589 and $2.525.

WTI Technical Outlook: $82.89 Pivot Holds the Key

WTI crude has rebounded from support at $77.96 and is now testing the $82.89 pivot. This level is especially important because the 50-EMA at $83.72 and the 100-EMA at $83.37 sit nearby, creating a cluster of resistance that may limit upside momentum unless buyers can deliver a decisive breakout.

The RSI is at 47, showing that momentum has improved but is not yet bullish. That reading reflects a market in transition rather than one with clear upside control. For technical traders, WTI needs to reclaim and hold above the $82.89 pivot before the rebound can carry stronger bullish implications.

Resistance levels are seen at $82.89, $84.00 and $86.21. Support levels are placed at $80.00, $77.96 and $75.21. WTI remains cautiously bearish below $82.89. A break above that pivot could open the door to $84.00 and $86.21, while failure to hold $80.00 could shift attention back toward $77.96.

Brent Technical Outlook: Recovery Stalls Below $85.68

Brent crude has bounced from support at $80.61 and is attempting to recover, but price remains below the 23.6% Fibonacci extension level at $85.68. That level now acts as immediate resistance and is a key threshold for assessing whether the rebound can develop into a broader recovery.

The 50-EMA at $88.32 and the 100-EMA at $88.37 remain above the current price, reinforcing the bearish structure. Although Brent’s RSI has risen to 43, suggesting that selling pressure is easing, the reading has not yet turned bullish. This keeps the market in a cautious posture, with buyers needing to clear nearby resistance before momentum improves meaningfully.

Resistance is seen at $85.68, $88.81 and $91.33. Support is located at $82.00, $80.61 and $77.75. Brent remains bearish below $85.68. A break above that level could support a move toward $88.81, while failure to maintain the recovery could bring $82.00 and $80.61 back into focus.

Energy Market Outlook

The broader energy outlook remains shaped by competing forces. OPEC+ is expected to add supply in September, yet a potential pause from October through December could prevent the market from viewing the policy path as aggressively bearish. Meanwhile, Middle East tensions and LNG shipping risks continue to preserve uncertainty around future supply availability.

From a technical perspective, natural gas, WTI and Brent all remain below important resistance levels. That leaves the near-term bias cautious until buyers reclaim key thresholds. For now, chart watchers are focused on $2.756 for natural gas, $82.89 for WTI and $85.68 for Brent. Breaks above those levels could improve sentiment, while failures at resistance would keep sellers in control.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

What is OPEC+ expected to do in September?

OPEC+ is expected to vote on an additional production increase of 188,000 barrels per day for September, completing the planned roll-out tied to the 1.65 million barrels per day of voluntary cuts announced in 2023.

Will OPEC+ keep raising output after September?

Market expectations suggest OPEC+ may pause additional output increases from October through December while roughly 2 million barrels per day of broader production cuts remain in place.

Why do Middle East tensions matter for oil prices?

Middle East tensions can affect supply expectations and spare capacity. If traders believe disruptions could limit available supply, crude prices may remain sensitive even when producers plan to add barrels.

What are the key WTI levels to watch?

WTI resistance is seen at $82.89, $84.00 and $86.21, while support is at $80.00, $77.96 and $75.21. The $82.89 pivot is the main level to reclaim for a stronger rebound.

Is WTI bullish or bearish right now?

WTI remains cautiously bearish below $82.89. Momentum has improved with RSI at 47, but technical traders are waiting for a break above resistance before calling the setup bullish.

What are the key Brent levels to watch?

Brent resistance is located at $85.68, $88.81 and $91.33. Support is seen at $82.00, $80.61 and $77.75, with $85.68 acting as the immediate resistance level.

Why is natural gas still under pressure?

Natural gas is trading below its 50-EMA at $2.874 and 100-EMA at $2.956, keeping the trend bearish. Price also remains below the key $2.756 resistance level.

Could natural gas rebound soon?

A rebound is possible because RSI has fallen to 28, which is an oversold reading. However, natural gas would need to break above $2.756 to improve the short-term technical outlook.

How does LNG affect natural gas fundamentals?

LNG expansion supports natural gas fundamentals by increasing global trade and export capacity. Global LNG trade reached an all-time high in 2025, and Mexico’s Energia Costa Azul terminal added 0.4 billion cubic feet per day of capacity.

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