What to Know
- Crude climbed on Wednesday after Yemen’s Iran aligned Houthis said they had hit Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery with a ballistic missile.
- Saudi authorities had not confirmed the claimed strike on the 550,000 barrel a day facility.
- Brent rose 1.3% to $115.36 early Wednesday, recovering part of the nearly $2 decline recorded on Tuesday.
- WTI was trading near $101.33 on the daily chart after holding the $99.61 breakout zone, with $103.94 and $107.38 watched as resistance.
- Industry data from the American Petroleum Institute pointed to a roughly 2.03mn barrel decline in US crude stocks in the week to October 23.
- Analysts in a Reuters poll had expected a small build of about 15,000 barrels.
- December natural gas futures were near $3.02 per mmBtu on Tuesday, above the expiring November contract at $2.662.
- Henry Hub spot gas fell to $2.52, its lowest level since November 2024, as mild weather expectations weighed on demand.
- Meteorologists expected mostly milder than normal weather through November 11, keeping heating demand subdued.
- Natural gas was trading near $3.06 per MMBtu on the daily chart, with $3.12 and $3.22 viewed as resistance and $3.00 and $2.80 as support.
Crude Rebounds as Middle East Risk Returns to the Foreground
Oil prices moved higher as traders reassessed supply risk following a claimed missile strike on Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery, the kingdom’s largest refinery. Yemen’s Iran aligned Houthis said they had hit the site with a ballistic missile, while Saudi authorities had not confirmed the strike on the 550,000 barrel a day facility. The claim was enough to revive concern that regional tensions could threaten energy infrastructure and maritime flows at a time when the market is already sensitive to headline risk from the Gulf.
Brent rose 1.3% to $115.36 early Wednesday, regaining part of the nearly $2 it lost on Tuesday. The earlier pullback had followed signs of diplomacy in Tehran, which briefly eased supply fears. However, the renewed focus on Ras Tanura reminded traders that negotiations have not removed the risk of disruption. In oil markets, even unconfirmed threats to major refining or export assets can affect pricing because traders price not only current barrels but also the possibility that future supply could be interrupted.
Diplomacy Has Not Removed the Risk Premium
The latest move in crude came alongside high level regional diplomacy. Iran’s Security Council chief Mohsen Rezaei met Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei after talks with Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan. State media said Khamenei stressed maintaining Iran’s conditions for ending the war, suggesting that negotiations have not yet bridged the divide. For energy traders, that leaves a meaningful geopolitical premium embedded in crude.
SEB’s Bjarne Schieldrop said there is “a significant risk premium in crude oil prices,” referring to the extra amount traders may pay because of the possibility of a US or Israeli strike on Iran in the coming weeks. Gelber and Associates also said continued Houthi attacks and the expanding military presence in the Gulf are keeping supply risks in place. FXCOINZ market coverage views this as a classic risk premium environment, where prices can move sharply on headlines even before there is confirmation of physical supply loss.
WTI Supported by Inventory Draw and Technical Breakout
WTI also drew support from US inventory signals. The American Petroleum Institute estimated that US crude stocks fell by about 2.03mn barrels in the week to October 23. That contrasted with analyst expectations in a Reuters poll for a small build of about 15,000 barrels. A drawdown of that scale can reinforce the view that the market remains tighter than expected, particularly when geopolitical risk is already elevated.
Distillate stocks, which include diesel and heating oil, rose 380,000 barrels. Even so, EIA data last week showed distillate inventories about 9% below the five year average. That matters because low distillate stocks can keep parts of the refined products market sensitive to cold weather, industrial demand, refinery operations, and shipping needs. The official EIA figures are due Wednesday, the same day as the Fed’s decision, giving traders another set of catalysts to assess.
On the chart, WTI was trading near $101.33. The market broke above the $99.61 zone, reached $103.94, and then pulled back while holding that breakout area. Prices also remain above a rising trendline that has guided the market higher since July. Technical traders often treat a successful retest of a former resistance zone as a sign that buyers are defending the move.
Support for WTI is seen at $99.61, followed by $95.33. Resistance is located at $103.94 and then $107.38. RSI is about 64 and slightly above its signal line, keeping momentum positive without pushing into an overbought reading. Some chart watchers retain a bullish lean while WTI holds $99.61. A close above $103.94 would place $107.38 in focus, while a drop below $99.61 would point attention back toward $95.33.
Brent Holds a Range as Buyers Defend Support
January Brent futures were trading near $111.00 on the 4 hour chart. Since touching $112.20 on October 24, Brent has moved sideways between $109.17 and $112.20. That channel has held since late September, creating a defined short term range for technical traders. A range of this kind can reflect a market that is balancing strong geopolitical support against caution after a sharp rally.
The first Brent resistance level is $112.20, followed by $114.37. On the downside, $109.17 is the first support, with $106.02 below it. RSI is near 60, which is positive but not stretched. The market therefore retains a slight bullish lean while Brent holds above $109.17. A close above $112.20 would open a potential move toward $114.37, while a break below $109.17 would shift attention toward $106.02.
For physical oil markets, Brent remains especially sensitive to developments around seaborne flows, refinery risk, and Gulf security. The Ras Tanura claim is important because the facility sits at the center of the Saudi energy system. Even without confirmation, the possibility of repeated attacks can influence hedging behavior, freight expectations, and the willingness of market participants to carry short exposure in crude.
Natural Gas Rolls to December as Weather Keeps Demand Weak
Natural gas remains under a different set of pressures. The November gas contract expires on Wednesday, making December the benchmark. December futures were near $3.02 per mmBtu on Tuesday, well above November’s $2.662. That gap means the apparent lift in the quoted benchmark reflects the contract roll rather than a sudden shift in near term fundamentals.
Henry Hub spot gas fell to $2.52, its lowest level since November 2024. The central problem for gas buyers remains the weather outlook. Meteorologists expected mostly milder than normal weather through November 11, according to LSEG, keeping heating demand low. In the natural gas market, mild weather can quickly reduce consumption expectations because residential and commercial heating demand is a major seasonal driver.
Exports are providing some support. LNG feedgas, which is the gas delivered to export terminals to be cooled into liquid for shipping, topped 20 Bcf per day this month, according to NGI. At the same time, daily output has recovered to about 113.5 Bcf per day, according to LSEG. NGI expects Thursday’s EIA storage report to show a 68 Bcf injection. That combination of solid supply, mild demand, and ongoing export support leaves the market caught between bearish weather and stronger structural LNG demand.
Natural Gas Technicals Show Selling Pressure Easing
Natural gas was trading near $3.06 per MMBtu on the daily chart, now tracking the December contract. December bounced from $2.80 on Monday and returned above $3.00. However, a long falling trendline connecting lower highs has capped rallies since February, including this month’s $3.64 peak. Until that broader downtrend is convincingly broken, technical traders may be cautious about calling a lasting recovery.
The first resistance level for natural gas is $3.12, followed by $3.22. Both levels are Fibonacci areas that measure how much of the previous decline has been retraced. Support sits at $3.00 and then $2.80. RSI has climbed to about 40 from near oversold territory, which suggests selling pressure is easing but does not yet show strong bullish momentum. Some chart watchers keep a slight bearish lean below $3.12. A close above that level would open $3.22, while a drop below $3.00 would point back toward $2.80.
Market Outlook
Oil and natural gas are being driven by very different catalysts. Crude is responding to geopolitical risk, inventory signals, and the possibility that Middle East tensions could affect supply. Natural gas is being restrained by mild weather expectations, strong output, and the technical reality of the contract roll. That divergence means traders are likely to treat the energy complex as two separate stories rather than one unified trend.
For WTI, the $99.61 level remains central to the near term outlook. Holding above it keeps the breakout structure intact, while a move through $103.94 would suggest buyers are prepared to challenge higher resistance. For Brent, $109.17 and $112.20 define the immediate range. For natural gas, $3.12 is the key upside level, while $3.00 is the first line of support. FXCOINZ will continue to monitor whether geopolitical risk can keep crude elevated and whether mild weather continues to cap gas demand into November.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Why did crude oil prices rise?
Crude rose after Yemen’s Houthis claimed they had struck Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery with a ballistic missile, reviving concern about supply risk in the Gulf. Brent also recovered part of the nearly $2 it lost on Tuesday.
Was the Ras Tanura strike confirmed?
Saudi authorities had not confirmed the claimed strike on the 550,000 barrel a day Ras Tanura facility. Markets still reacted because even unconfirmed threats to major energy infrastructure can add a risk premium to oil prices.
What is the key level for WTI?
WTI is holding the $99.61 breakout zone. Technical traders are watching $103.94 as the next resistance level, with $107.38 above it. A move below $99.61 would shift focus toward $95.33.
What levels matter for Brent?
January Brent futures are trading in a range between $109.17 and $112.20. A close above $112.20 would put $114.37 in focus, while a break below $109.17 would point toward $106.02.
What did US inventory data show?
The American Petroleum Institute estimated that US crude stocks fell by about 2.03mn barrels in the week to October 23. Analysts in a Reuters poll had expected a small build of about 15,000 barrels.
Why is natural gas under pressure?
Natural gas is being pressured by expectations for mostly milder than normal weather through November 11. Mild conditions tend to reduce heating demand, which can weigh on gas prices during the seasonal transition.
Why did December natural gas look higher than November?
The November gas contract expires on Wednesday, so December becomes the benchmark. December futures were near $3.02 per mmBtu on Tuesday, compared with November at $2.662, meaning the higher quote reflects the contract roll.
What are the key natural gas technical levels?
Natural gas faces resistance at $3.12 and $3.22. Support sits at $3.00 and $2.80. Some chart watchers keep a slight bearish lean below $3.12, while a close above it would improve the near term outlook.