What to Know

  • Crude oil slipped on Monday as Iranian and Qatari officials held a third straight day of talks aimed at ending the war, while OPEC+ kept December production targets unchanged.
  • Traders are watching Tuesday’s US midterm elections and the November 29 OPEC+ meeting for signals that could shift the oil market’s risk premium.
  • WTI is trading near $100.53 after breaking below the bottom of a rising channel that had guided prices higher since early October.
  • WTI’s immediate support is the $99.61 zone, followed by $95.41, while resistance sits near $101.60, $103.94 and $107.38.
  • Brent is trading near $110.02 and testing the $109.17 channel floor, with a close below that level exposing $106.02.
  • Brent resistance is seen near $111.30, then $112.20 and $114.37, while a move above $112.20 would favor buyers.
  • December natural gas is trading near $2.93/MMBtu and pressing a falling trendline while the $2.80 floor continues to hold.
  • A close above $3.00 would confirm a natural gas trendline break, while a drop below $2.80 would open the $2.71 area.
  • US oil rigs rose by two to 462, while gas rigs fell by two to 130, leaving the total rig count at 603 for a third straight week.
  • Last week’s 80 Bcf natural gas storage build ended a 10-week run of below-average injections, while mild forecasts continue to limit heating demand.

Crude Pulls Back as Diplomacy Cools Immediate Risk Premium

Crude oil moved lower on Monday as markets weighed an extended diplomatic track involving Iranian and Qatari officials against a backdrop of still-elevated geopolitical risk. The talks reached a third straight day, and the weekend passed without a major military clash, encouraging some traders to reduce exposure after a strong October finish in Brent. The move lower does not necessarily mark a decisive shift in the broader oil narrative, but it does show that prices remain sensitive to headlines that affect the perceived probability of supply disruption.

Brent had ended October at a six-month high, leaving the market vulnerable to profit-taking. In that context, Monday’s decline looked more like a technical and positioning adjustment than a full reversal in sentiment. Traders had priced in a higher risk premium during the prior advance, and any indication that diplomacy is being given more time can temporarily reduce the urgency to hold aggressive long positions.

Still, the security risk has not disappeared. The US ordered non-emergency staff to leave Saudi Arabia on October 21, and last week brought Houthi strikes on Saudi refineries. Those developments keep the market alert to the possibility that political rhetoric or military activity could quickly bring buyers back into crude. Some market participants have warned that Brent could approach $120 if Iran-related rhetoric intensifies after the US vote, but for now the market is treating the latest diplomatic tone as a reason to pause.

OPEC+ Holds Steady, but the Next Decision Looks More Complicated

OPEC+ offered no surprise over the weekend. Seven core members, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman, kept December production targets unchanged, maintaining the level set in September. Their combined targets stand at about 31mn bpd, but the headline figure may overstate the group’s practical ability to influence near-term flows because most members are already producing well below target due to the war.

That makes the current quota more of a ceiling than a binding production guide. When members are not near their target levels, keeping those targets unchanged is the easier policy choice. The harder decision may come later if market conditions shift, prices remain volatile, or geopolitical disruptions continue to interfere with output and exports.

Saudi Arabia still lifted crude exports in October from September despite the Houthi attacks, according to ship-tracking data cited by two of three firms. That detail matters because it suggests that at least some supply channels remained resilient despite security pressure. For oil traders, the core question is whether current export trends can persist if regional tensions escalate again.

WTI Technical Outlook: $99.61 Becomes the Line to Watch

WTI is trading near $100.53 on the 4-hour chart after being rejected near $104.50. The market has slipped below the bottom of a rising channel formed by two parallel lines that had guided prices higher since early October. A channel break does not automatically confirm a bearish reversal, but it does show that upside momentum has weakened and that buyers now need to reassert control quickly.

The $99.61 zone is the immediate support area. If WTI holds above that level, the short-term bias can remain neutral as traders assess whether the channel break becomes a false breakdown or the start of a deeper pullback. A close below $99.61 would open the door to $95.41, making that lower level the next key downside objective for technical traders.

On the upside, the former channel floor near $101.60 has turned into an initial resistance area. Above that, $103.94 is the more important level because a move through it would restore the uptrend. The next resistance is $107.38. The relative strength index has dropped to about 43 and is below its signal line, showing that recent selling pressure has gained influence. That reading supports a neutral-to-cautious stance while the market sits between nearby support and resistance.

Brent Technical Outlook: Channel Floor Under Pressure

January Brent futures are trading near $110.02 on the 2-hour chart after being rejected near $114.37. Prices have fallen back toward the $109.17 zone, a support area that has held since late October and now aligns with the bottom of the rising channel. This makes $109.17 a high-value technical level for both short-term traders and broader market watchers.

If Brent closes below $109.17, the move would break the channel and expose $106.02 as the next support area. Such a development would suggest that the October strength is undergoing a more serious correction. Until that happens, however, the market can still be viewed as consolidating near an important floor rather than confirming a full bearish breakdown.

Resistance begins near the midline at $111.30. A move beyond that area would shift attention to $112.20, and a break above $112.20 would favor buyers. The next level above is $114.37, where Brent previously faced rejection. The relative strength index has fallen to about 40 and remains below its signal line, indicating that sellers currently have the upper hand. Even so, the outlook remains neutral while $109.17 holds.

Natural Gas Outlook: Buyers Test the Falling Trendline

December natural gas is trading near $2.93/MMBtu on the 2-hour chart. Buyers defended the $2.80 zone for a second time last week, and prices are now pushing into a falling trendline that has connected lower highs since mid-October. This creates a straightforward technical setup: the market is trying to decide whether a base is forming or whether the broader downtrend will resume.

The first resistance is $3.00, followed by $3.12. A close above $3.00 would confirm a break of the falling trendline and give buyers a stronger short-term argument. Without that close, the market remains vulnerable to another rejection near resistance. On the downside, $2.80 is the key support level. A drop below $2.80 would open $2.71 and suggest that sellers have regained control.

The relative strength index has climbed to about 50 and is above its signal line, showing that selling pressure is easing. This does not yet confirm a bullish reversal, but it does indicate that the bearish momentum has cooled. Natural gas remains neutral between $2.80 and $3.00, with the next directional signal likely to come from a confirmed break on either side of that range.

US Drilling Data Highlights a Split Between Oil and Gas

The latest US drilling figures underline the difference between oil and gas market incentives. US oil rigs rose by two to 462, the highest since early October, while gas rigs fell by two to 130, the lowest since early September. The total rig count stayed at 603 for a third straight week and stood 57 above the year-ago level.

The message is clear: drillers are responding to relative price signals. Oil above $100 attracts rigs, while gas below $3 discourages gas-focused activity. This does not instantly change supply, because drilling decisions affect production with a lag, but it offers an important view into how producers are allocating capital in response to current market conditions.

For natural gas, fundamentals remain restrained by weather and storage. Last week’s 80 Bcf storage build ended a 10-week run of below-average injections. At the same time, persistently mild forecasts continue to limit heating demand heading into November. That combination helps explain why natural gas has struggled to sustain upside momentum despite signs that selling pressure is easing on the chart.

Market Outlook: Event Risk Keeps Traders Cautious

The near-term outlook for crude oil and natural gas remains event-driven. Oil traders are balancing diplomatic progress, security threats, OPEC+ discipline and technical levels that have become increasingly important after recent gains. Natural gas traders are weighing a potential technical breakout against mild weather and a fresh storage build.

For WTI, the $99.61 level is the pivot. Holding above it would keep the market neutral and preserve the possibility of a rebound toward resistance. Closing below it would place $95.41 in focus. For Brent, $109.17 is the key line. A close below that area would weaken the structure and open $106.02, while a move above $112.20 would shift control back toward buyers. For natural gas, the range between $2.80 and $3.00 remains decisive, with $3.12 and $2.71 marking the next follow-through levels.

Until one of these markets breaks cleanly from its current range, traders may continue to treat rallies and dips with caution. The technical signals are mixed, and the fundamental backdrop contains both bearish and bullish forces. That keeps the overall tone neutral, with a bias toward quick reactions when prices approach the key support and resistance zones.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Why did crude oil fall on Monday?

Crude oil slipped as Iranian and Qatari officials continued talks for a third straight day and the weekend passed without a major military clash. After Brent ended October at a six-month high, some traders also appeared to take profit.

What is the key WTI support level now?

The key WTI support level is $99.61. A close below that area would open the way toward $95.41, while a move above $103.94 would help restore the uptrend.

Where is Brent support and resistance?

Brent support is at $109.17, followed by $106.02. Resistance is near $111.30, then $112.20 and $114.37, with a move above $112.20 favoring buyers.

What would confirm a natural gas breakout?

A close above $3.00 would confirm a break of the falling trendline in December natural gas. If prices fail there and drop below $2.80, the next downside area would be $2.71.

What did OPEC+ decide on production targets?

Seven core OPEC+ members kept December production targets unchanged, maintaining the level set in September. Their combined targets stand at about 31mn bpd, though most members are producing well below those targets.

US oil rigs rose by two to 462, while gas rigs fell by two to 130. The total rig count held at 603 for a third straight week, suggesting drillers are favoring oil while natural gas prices remain under pressure.

Why is natural gas struggling below $3.00?

Natural gas is facing resistance near $3.00 as mild forecasts limit heating demand and last week’s 80 Bcf storage build ended a 10-week run of below-average injections.

What events are traders watching next?

Traders are watching Tuesday’s US midterm elections and the November 29 OPEC+ meeting. Both could influence risk sentiment, policy expectations and commodity price direction.