What to Know

  • Spot silver settled higher for a second consecutive session on Friday, although it finished below its intraday high.
  • The daily swing chart still shows the main trend as down, but the minor trend turned up on Thursday, shifting short term momentum to the upside.
  • Silver is trading above its 50 day moving average at $62.97, a level that supports the recent rebound.
  • A move through the swing bottom at $62.31 would signal a resumption of the downtrend.
  • A trade through the September 9 main top at $68.33 would turn the main trend up.
  • The intermediate range runs from $54.78 to $71.18, placing the key retracement support zone at $62.98 to $61.04.
  • The $62.98 area has been tested several times over the past six sessions, including the new swing bottom at $62.31 on September 16.
  • Two short term 50 percent levels are in focus at $65.32 and $66.75, derived from the $68.33 to $62.31 range and the $71.18 to $62.31 range.
  • On Friday, silver surged through both 50 percent levels to $67.34 before pulling back.
  • The dollar failed to extend Friday’s early high at 100.564, helping silver recover from morning pressure below $65.50.

Silver Momentum Improves as Dollar Advance Loses Force

Silver regained traction on Friday as the dollar’s early strength faded, allowing XAGUSD to recover from pressure that had pushed the metal below $65.50 earlier in the session. The move mattered because the broader daily trend remains down, yet the short term tone has improved enough to force traders to reassess whether the latest rebound is merely corrective or the start of a more durable challenge of upper resistance.

FXCOINZ market coverage shows that spot silver settled higher for a second session in a row, though the close came below the session high. That detail keeps the move constructive but not yet conclusive. Buyers proved they could force a recovery when the dollar stalled, but they still need to defend higher ground to confirm that momentum has shifted decisively in their favor.

The central technical development is the change in the minor trend. The main trend remains down on the daily swing chart, but the minor trend turned up on Thursday. That shift is important because it suggests short term momentum has moved away from sellers, even if the larger chart has not yet delivered a full trend reversal. For many technical traders, that combination defines a counter trend rally with the potential to expand if resistance gives way.

The 50 Day Moving Average Keeps Buyers Engaged

Silver’s close above the 50 day moving average at $62.97 is another supportive factor. Moving averages are widely watched because they can act as a dividing line between bearish pressure and improving demand. In this case, the metal’s ability to remain above $62.97 gives bulls a nearby reference point and keeps the rebound from looking like a simple intraday reaction.

The support area surrounding that moving average has already been tested repeatedly. The intermediate range runs from $54.78 to $71.18, creating a retracement zone at $62.98 to $61.04. The upper boundary at $62.98, which sits almost on top of the 50 day moving average at $62.97, has been tested several times over the past six sessions. That includes the new swing bottom at $62.31 on September 16.

Because the market has respected this region more than once, chart watchers are likely to treat it as the main downside battleground. Holding above it keeps the recovery argument alive. A decisive failure there would change the tone and suggest that the two day advance was driven more by short covering than by sustained new buying.

Why $66.75 Matters for the Next Silver Move

The immediate upside focus is $66.75. This level is one of the two short term 50 percent marks created by recent trading ranges. The first range spans $68.33 to $62.31 and produces a 50 percent level at $65.32. The second range spans $71.18 to $62.31 and produces a 50 percent level at $66.75. On Friday, silver moved through both levels and reached $67.34 before retreating.

That surge was notable because 50 percent retracement levels often attract both profit taking and fresh selling in a counter trend rally. Clearing them intraday showed that buyers had enough momentum to squeeze bearish positions and challenge the structure of the decline. However, the pullback from $67.34 also showed that the market has not yet secured control above the upper retracement level.

A sustained hold above $66.75 would strengthen the case for another test of $67.34 and then the more important $68.33 level. The $68.33 point is not just another resistance mark. It is the September 9 main top, and a trade through it would turn the main trend up on the daily swing chart. That is why this level is the key threshold for traders evaluating whether the post Fed selloff has been fully reversed.

Dollar Action Remains the Key Macro Driver

The dollar remains the most important external market for silver at the moment. The metal’s rebound on Friday developed as the dollar failed to extend its early high at 100.564. That failure gave silver bears less momentum to work with, even though the broader macro arguments supporting dollar strength had not completely disappeared.

Silver is sensitive to dollar direction because it is priced in dollars in global markets. When the dollar rises, silver can become more expensive for holders of other currencies, which may weigh on demand. When the dollar stalls or weakens, metals often find more room to recover, particularly if short sellers are already leaning heavily on the downside.

For that reason, traders are watching whether the dollar can sustain a push above 100.564. If it does, pressure could return quickly to silver and test whether buyers are willing to defend the ground gained during Friday’s reversal. If the dollar fails again to extend its rally, silver could have room to rebuild upside momentum toward $67.34 and then $68.33.

Downside Levels That Could Undermine the Rally

The first level to watch on the downside is $65.32. This was one of the short term 50 percent levels cleared during Friday’s advance. A break back below it would not necessarily end the rebound, but it would weaken momentum and suggest that buyers are losing control of the immediate range.

If $65.32 fails, attention would turn back to the support cluster near $62.98 to $62.97. That area combines the upper boundary of the intermediate retracement zone with the 50 day moving average. Because it has held multiple tests over six sessions, losing it would be a meaningful bearish signal. Traders would likely view that as evidence that the market was unable to convert short term momentum into a broader recovery.

Below that cluster, the next downside target zone sits at $61.04 to $60.83. A move into that area would significantly damage the bullish rebound case and could reclassify the recent advance as short covering that ran out of buyers. The most direct bearish confirmation, however, would come from a trade through $62.31, the swing bottom that would signal a resumption of the downtrend.

Silver Forecast: Upside Bias, But Confirmation Still Needed

The near term silver forecast leans cautiously higher while XAGUSD remains above $66.75 and the dollar fails to extend beyond 100.564. The minor trend has turned up, the metal is holding above the 50 day moving average at $62.97, and Friday’s rally showed that buyers can push through important midpoint resistance when macro pressure eases.

Still, the main trend has not yet turned up. That only happens on a trade through $68.33. Until then, the move remains a counter trend rally inside a larger bearish structure. This distinction matters because counter trend rallies can be sharp, especially when short sellers are forced to cover, but they require follow through to become trend changes.

For bullish traders, the cleanest path is a sustained hold above $66.75, a renewed push through $67.34, and then a challenge of $68.33. For bearish traders, the focus is a rejection below $66.75, a break under $65.32, and renewed pressure toward the $62.98 to $62.97 support cluster. Silver is therefore at a technical pivot point where the dollar’s next move and the market’s ability to defend regained levels may determine whether the rebound extends or fades.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Why did silver rebound on Friday?

Silver rebounded as the dollar failed to extend its early high at 100.564. That loss of dollar momentum helped XAGUSD recover from morning pressure below $65.50 and settle higher for a second consecutive session.

Is the main trend in silver bullish now?

No. The main trend remains down on the daily swing chart. It would turn up only if silver trades through the September 9 main top at $68.33.

What is the most important upside level for XAGUSD?

The most important upside level is $68.33 because a trade through that point would turn the main trend up. Before that, traders are watching whether silver can hold above $66.75 and retest $67.34.

Why is $66.75 important for silver?

The $66.75 level is a 50 percent level formed from the $71.18 to $62.31 range. A sustained hold above it would strengthen the case for a move toward $67.34 and $68.33.

What level would weaken silver momentum?

A break below $65.32 would weaken short term momentum. That level is another 50 percent mark, formed from the $68.33 to $62.31 range.

Where is key support for silver?

Key support is clustered around $62.98 to $62.97, combining the upper boundary of the intermediate retracement zone with the 50 day moving average. The broader retracement support zone extends to $61.04.

What would signal a resumption of the downtrend?

A trade through the swing bottom at $62.31 would signal a resumption of the downtrend. That would suggest sellers have regained control after the recent two day rebound.

How does the dollar affect silver prices?

Silver is priced in dollars, so dollar strength can pressure the metal by making it more expensive for holders of other currencies. When the dollar stalls, silver often has more room to recover, especially if bearish positions are crowded.

What should traders watch next?

Traders should watch whether the dollar can sustain a push above 100.564 and whether silver can hold above $66.75. Those two signals may shape whether XAGUSD extends toward $68.33 or slips back toward support.