What to Know

  • Solana has held above $100 despite heavy selling pressure across much of last week.
  • Multiple attempts from Wednesday to Sunday to push SOL below $100 were met with strong buying.
  • SOL gained 0.8% during today’s session ahead of the New York opening bell, while trading volumes rose 48% after a busy weekend.
  • Solana-linked exchange-traded funds have recorded a 10-day streak of net outflows.
  • Nearly $55 million has been withdrawn from Solana ETFs in October, after these vehicles brought in $272 million a month earlier.
  • The Alpenglow upgrade is scheduled to go live on October 21 on Epoch 1064.
  • Alpenglow is designed to cut transaction settlement times from about 12.8 seconds, or around 13 seconds, to 150ms.
  • Technical traders are watching $114 as a key level that SOL needs to overcome to challenge $120 and potentially open a path toward $150.
  • The Relative Strength Index has dropped below 40, keeping momentum tilted to the bearish side until a stronger reversal signal develops.

Solana Holds a Critical Support Zone

Solana is entering a decisive stretch with its price still anchored above the $100 area, a level that has become the central battleground between dip buyers and sellers. After a period of broad pressure across the market, SOL’s ability to remain above that threshold has drawn attention from technical traders looking for signs that selling momentum may be losing force.

The price action from Wednesday to Sunday was particularly important. During that window, SOL faced several attempts to break below $100, yet each move was met with strong demand. That repeated defense has reinforced the technical relevance of the zone and suggests that some market participants continue to view the area as an attractive accumulation region rather than a breakdown point.

The latest session added a modest but notable sign of stabilization. SOL posted a 0.8% gain ahead of the opening bell in New York, while trading volumes increased by 48% following an active weekend. Rising volume around a key support level can signal growing participation, though it does not automatically confirm a lasting reversal. For now, the message from the market is that buyers are present, but they still need to prove they can push through nearby resistance.

Alpenglow Upgrade Becomes the Main Catalyst

The major project-specific event on the calendar is the Alpenglow upgrade, which is scheduled for mainnet activation on October 21 on Epoch 1064. The upgrade has already been tested on Solana’s testnet and devnet, with results described as satisfying so far. For a blockchain whose reputation is closely tied to speed, throughput and user experience, the market is watching closely to see whether the launch can strengthen confidence in the network’s technical roadmap.

The most important change expected from Alpenglow is a sharp reduction in transaction settlement times. The upgrade is designed to bring settlement down from 12.8 seconds, or roughly 13 seconds, to 150ms. That is a major technical adjustment and could become a powerful narrative if users, developers and investors interpret the change as a meaningful improvement in Solana’s performance profile.

Blockchain upgrades often matter for token prices because they can alter sentiment even before their full practical impact is measured. Traders may position ahead of an event if they believe it can attract attention, improve network utility or create fear of missing out. In Solana’s case, the strong buying seen near $100 may reflect a view among some chart watchers that the market is already positioning for a successful Alpenglow rollout.

That said, upgrade-driven rallies are never guaranteed. Market participants still need to weigh the broader tone in digital assets, risk appetite and whether the implementation proceeds smoothly. A clean activation could support sentiment, while any disappointment could weaken the bullish case, especially if SOL fails to reclaim key resistance levels soon after the event.

ETF Outflows Add a Caution Signal

While spot-market buyers have defended $100, Solana-linked exchange-traded funds are sending a more cautious message. These vehicles have registered a 10-day streak of net outflows, with nearly $55 million withdrawn in October. That marks a change from the prior trend, especially after Solana ETFs brought in $272 million a month earlier.

The reversal in ETF flows matters because fund demand can provide a useful window into institutional and allocation-driven sentiment. A sustained period of inflows can help reinforce bullish momentum, while outflows may suggest investors are reducing exposure or waiting for clearer signals. In this case, the outflows do not erase the buying interest seen at $100, but they do show that not every part of the market is leaning aggressively bullish.

This mixed backdrop makes the coming sessions more important. If the Alpenglow upgrade lands successfully and SOL breaks above nearby resistance, ETF outflows may become less influential in the short term. However, if price stalls below resistance while outflows continue, sellers may regain confidence and test whether the $100 support area can hold again.

Key Levels: $107, $108, $114 and $120

For technical traders, the immediate challenge is the sell wall that SOL has recently encountered around $107 to $108. A convincing push through that band would be an early sign that demand is expanding beyond passive buying at support. Until then, the market may remain vulnerable to choppy trading between support and resistance.

The larger level to watch is $114. SOL needs to overcome that barrier to begin reversing and invalidating its bearish price structure. A move above $114 would not only improve the chart but could also encourage momentum traders to look for a retest of the first target at $120. That sequence is important because a market that cannot reclaim nearby resistance often struggles to sustain a broader recovery, even when a major catalyst is approaching.

If SOL can clear $114 and then build strength toward $120, the argument for a larger move toward $150 becomes more credible. Some market participants believe a successful Alpenglow implementation could provide enough of a tailwind to lift SOL toward that level in the coming weeks. However, that scenario depends on confirmation from price action, not just the upgrade narrative.

Momentum Still Needs to Improve

The Relative Strength Index shows that momentum remains on the bearish side, with the oscillator dropping below 40. That reading suggests that sellers still have influence and that the market has not yet delivered a clear momentum reversal. For a stronger bullish signal, traders would want to see the indicator recover above its signal line while price also pushes through resistance.

This is where the current setup becomes nuanced. The defense of $100 is constructive, volume has improved, and a major upgrade is approaching. At the same time, ETF outflows and weak momentum readings argue against assuming that a breakout is already underway. In other words, SOL is positioned near a potential turning point, but confirmation remains essential.

A data-light calendar may give the market some breathing room to retest important zones without being overwhelmed by a heavy stream of macroeconomic catalysts. That could help Solana trade more directly on project-specific developments and technical levels. Still, broader crypto conditions can shift quickly, and traders should remain alert to sudden changes in risk appetite.

Can SOL Reach $150?

The path to $150 starts with the same area that has dominated recent trading: $100. As long as buyers continue to defend that level, the possibility of a recovery remains alive. The next step is a move through $107 to $108, followed by a more meaningful test of $114. If SOL clears $114, then $120 becomes the first upside target, and a stronger continuation could bring $150 into focus.

The bullish case rests on a combination of technical support, rising activity, and the Alpenglow catalyst. Faster settlement times could sharpen Solana’s competitive narrative, especially if the upgrade is implemented smoothly and market participants respond positively. In that environment, fear of missing out could contribute to a stronger recovery.

The bearish case is also clear. If SOL fails to break through resistance and momentum remains weak, the recent buying at $100 may only delay another downside test. ETF outflows add to that caution, showing that some investors have been reducing exposure even as spot traders defend support. A clean move below $100 would weaken the current setup and force traders to reassess the near-term outlook.

For now, Solana is at a technically important crossroads. The market has defended a major support zone just as one of the network’s most watched upgrades approaches. Whether that combination is enough to send SOL toward $150 will depend on confirmation above resistance, improving momentum, and the market’s reaction to Alpenglow after activation.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Why is the $100 level important for Solana?

The $100 level has become important because SOL faced multiple attempts to break below it from Wednesday to Sunday, and each attempt was met with strong buying. That repeated defense has made the area a key support zone for technical traders.

What is the Alpenglow upgrade?

Alpenglow is a Solana technical upgrade scheduled for mainnet activation on October 21 on Epoch 1064. Its most important expected change is a reduction in transaction settlement times from 12.8 seconds, or around 13 seconds, to 150ms.

Could Alpenglow push SOL toward $150?

Some market participants believe a successful Alpenglow implementation could improve sentiment enough to support a rally toward $150 in the coming weeks. That outcome remains conditional on SOL breaking through key resistance levels and momentum improving.

What levels does SOL need to break for a bullish reversal?

SOL first needs to push through the recent sell wall around $107 to $108. A move above $114 would be more significant because it could invalidate the bearish price structure and open the way toward the first target at $120.

What does the RSI say about Solana’s momentum?

The Relative Strength Index has dropped below 40, which shows that momentum remains on the bearish side. Traders would want to see the indicator rise above its signal line to confirm that price action is beginning to reverse.

Are Solana ETFs supporting the bullish case?

Solana-linked exchange-traded funds are not currently supporting the bullish case. They have recorded a 10-day streak of net outflows, with nearly $55 million withdrawn in October after bringing in $272 million a month earlier.

How did SOL trade in the latest session?

SOL gained 0.8% during today’s session ahead of the New York opening bell. Trading volumes also rose 48% after a busy weekend, showing increased participation around the current price zone.

What would weaken the current Solana setup?

A failure to reclaim resistance near $107 to $108 and $114 would weaken the recovery attempt. A break below $100 would be more concerning because it would undermine the support zone that buyers have defended repeatedly.

Is the Solana outlook bullish or bearish right now?

The outlook is mixed but potentially constructive. Buyers have defended $100 and the Alpenglow upgrade could act as a catalyst, but ETF outflows and a Relative Strength Index below 40 show that confirmation is still needed before the bullish case becomes stronger.