What to Know
- Solana has dropped 9% in the past 7 days after the latest United States midterm elections shifted the political backdrop for crypto markets.
- Market sentiment has weakened as Democratic control of the House of Representatives and the Senate is seen by some participants as a potential obstacle for crypto friendly legislation.
- Odds of a December rate hike rose to 99% after comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller supporting a 25 basis point increase at the next FOMC meeting.
- FedWatch data showed rate hike odds climbing from 84% the day before to 99%.
- More than $2.4 billion in crypto long positions have been wiped out in the past 7 days during the latest market decline.
- Solana ranked third for long liquidations over the past 24 hours, with nearly $7 million in long positions removed as SOL approached the $80 support area.
- Solana decentralized exchange volumes have declined for 6 consecutive weeks, pointing to softer usage across parts of the ecosystem.
- Weekly Solana DEX volume fell from a recent peak of $17.8 billion in mid September to $10.8 billion last week, a 39.3% retreat.
- Technical traders are watching whether SOL can hold above $80, as a downside break could expose $74 or lower.
- The 4 hour RSI has fallen to 25, a level associated with deeply oversold momentum conditions.
Solana Slides as Macro and Political Pressure Build
Solana is under renewed pressure as traders reassess risk across the crypto market. SOL has booked a 9% decline in the past 7 days, with selling pressure intensifying after the latest United States midterm elections and a fresh shift in rate expectations. The token is now hovering near a key support area around $80, a level that many technical traders see as decisive for the near term trend.
The political backdrop has become a bigger part of the Solana conversation because market participants are weighing how legislative momentum could affect the broader digital asset sector. With Democrats controlling both the House of Representatives and the Senate, some crypto investors expect limited progress on supportive legislation for the industry. That view has added to already cautious sentiment at a time when liquidity conditions remain a central concern for high beta assets.
Solana has often traded as one of the more sensitive large cap crypto assets during swings in risk appetite. When traders are comfortable taking on exposure, SOL can attract aggressive flows because of its active ecosystem, fast transaction design and history of sharp upside moves. When sentiment deteriorates, that same sensitivity can work in reverse, leaving the token vulnerable to rapid liquidations and technical breakdowns.
Rate Hike Odds Jump to 99% for December
The macro catalyst behind the latest risk off move comes from shifting expectations around Federal Reserve policy. Odds of a rate hike in December climbed to 99% after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller expressed support for another increase at the next FOMC meeting. Speaking at a conference hosted by the Bank of England, Waller said: “While I am hoping for an improvement over September, even if this occurs, I would still support a 25 basis point increase in the FOMC’s policy rate at our December meeting.”
Waller also left open the possibility of more aggressive action if inflation comes in substantially higher than expected. That message reinforced the idea that monetary policy could remain restrictive, which typically weighs on speculative assets. Higher policy rates can reduce the appeal of riskier investments because investors have more attractive returns available in lower risk instruments. For crypto markets, that can translate into weaker inflows, lower leverage tolerance and faster unwinds during periods of stress.
FedWatch data showed that the probability of a December rate hike moved from 84% the day before to 99%. Such a sharp repricing signals that traders believe Waller’s comments may reflect a broader view inside the Federal Reserve. For Solana, this matters because SOL is already testing a critical price area while broader market leverage is being forced out.
Liquidations Add to the Downside Pressure
The broader crypto market has seen a substantial long squeeze. In the past 7 days, more than $2.4 billion in long positions have been wiped out as the latest decline spread across digital assets. Long liquidations can accelerate downside moves because leveraged bullish positions are automatically closed when prices fall too far, creating additional selling pressure into an already weak market.
Solana has been among the tokens most affected by that pressure. SOL ranked third in terms of long liquidations over the past 24 hours, with nearly $7 million in long positions taken out as the token moved closer to the $80 support area. This positioning dynamic is important because it can make support tests more volatile. If forced selling remains elevated, the market may need a stronger demand response to defend the level.
At the same time, liquidation driven selloffs can sometimes create conditions for sharp rebounds if sellers become exhausted. That possibility is part of why traders are watching both price and momentum indicators closely. A washout near a known demand zone can produce a bounce, but whether that bounce becomes a durable recovery depends on follow through, volume and the broader market tone.
Solana On Chain Activity Shows Weakness
Beyond macro pressure, Solana’s own ecosystem data is sending a cautious signal. Decentralized exchange volumes on Solana have now recorded a 6 week streak of declining prints, suggesting lower usage of decentralized applications tied to trading activity. For a smart contract network, DEX volume is a key measure because it reflects how actively users are transacting within decentralized finance venues.
Solana weekly DEX volume has fallen from a recent peak of $17.8 billion in mid September to $10.8 billion last week. That marks a 39.3% retreat and points to a clear cooldown from the stronger activity seen when crypto prices were rallying toward cycle highs. Lower DEX activity does not necessarily mean the network’s long term thesis is broken, but it does indicate that demand for on chain trading has weakened during the current pullback.
This matters for SOL because network activity and token sentiment are closely connected. When users are active, liquidity is rising and decentralized applications are attracting volume, traders often become more willing to pay higher valuations for the underlying asset. When activity contracts, the market can become less forgiving, especially if macro conditions are also tightening.
Technical Setup: The $80 Level Is the Line to Watch
From a technical perspective, the $80 area has become the key near term battleground. Chart watchers are focused on whether SOL can bounce from this support zone or whether sellers will force a clean breakdown. A failure to hold above $80 could put the next downside target near $74, implying an additional 12% move lower from the key threshold discussed by traders.
The daily chart shows that price action could soon fill a fair value gap left during the August rally. Fair value gaps are zones that some technical traders monitor because they may contain unfilled demand or supply imbalances. In this case, the area may act as a potential demand zone if buyers step in aggressively. However, the presence of a fair value gap does not guarantee a reversal. It simply marks an area where order flow may become more active.
If SOL rebounds from the zone around $80, the first major question will be whether the move has enough strength to challenge resistance near $95. A recovery into that area would show that buyers are still willing to defend the broader structure. If the bounce is weak or stalls quickly, the market may interpret it as only a temporary pause inside a broader correction.
Momentum Looks Stretched but Still Bearish
Momentum readings have become deeply negative. The Relative Strength Index has dropped to 25, a level often associated with oversold conditions. For traders, an oversold RSI can be interpreted in two different ways. It may suggest that selling has become stretched and that a technical rebound is possible. It may also confirm that downside momentum is strong and that buyers have not yet regained control.
The last time this type of RSI reading occurred was in June 2026, when SOL hit its previous cycle low around $61. That comparison is notable because it shows how extreme the current momentum picture has become. Still, traders should be cautious about assuming that oversold conditions automatically create a bottom. In trending markets, assets can remain oversold longer than expected, especially when macro pressure and liquidations are reinforcing the decline.
For now, the technical outlook is conditional. A bounce from the $80 area could support a short term recovery attempt, particularly if liquidations cool and broader crypto sentiment stabilizes. But a decisive loss of that level would likely strengthen the bearish case and increase the probability of a move toward $74 or lower.
Is Solana’s Bull Run at Risk?
The question facing Solana traders is whether the current move is a prolonged correction or the beginning of a more serious trend shift. The answer will likely depend on how SOL behaves around $80 and whether ecosystem activity begins to stabilize. A strong defense of support, followed by a push back toward $95, would suggest that bulls still have room to regroup. A breakdown with rising selling pressure would raise the risk that the prior bullish structure has weakened materially.
Macro conditions remain central to the outlook. If rate hike expectations stay elevated and investors continue to reduce exposure to risk assets, Solana may struggle to attract the momentum needed for a sustained rebound. If the market digests the policy outlook and forced selling eases, deeply oversold conditions could help SOL stage a relief move.
FXCOINZ market coverage will continue to track the $80 support zone, the $74 downside area, the $95 resistance level and Solana DEX volumes as key signals. For now, the balance of evidence remains cautious: the price trend is weak, on chain trading activity has cooled, and macro pressure is still weighing on crypto appetite.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Why is Solana price under pressure?
Solana is under pressure because of a mix of weaker crypto sentiment, rising December rate hike odds, long liquidations and declining Solana DEX volumes. SOL has also fallen 9% in the past 7 days, which has increased attention on the $80 support area.
What is the key Solana support level right now?
The key level being watched by technical traders is $80. If SOL fails to stay above that area, chart watchers see a possible move toward $74 or lower in the near term.
How much could SOL fall if $80 breaks?
If SOL breaks below the $80 threshold and fails to recover quickly, the downside area being watched is $74 or lower. That would represent a potential 12% decline from the key support threshold.
Why do rate hike odds matter for Solana?
Higher rate hike odds can reduce investor appetite for risk assets, including crypto tokens such as Solana. December rate hike odds rose to 99% after comments supporting a 25 basis point increase at the next FOMC meeting.
What do Solana DEX volumes show?
Solana DEX volumes have declined for 6 consecutive weeks. Weekly volume dropped from $17.8 billion in mid September to $10.8 billion last week, a 39.3% retreat that points to softer decentralized trading activity on the network.
Is an oversold RSI bullish for SOL?
An RSI reading of 25 shows that momentum is deeply oversold, which can sometimes precede a technical bounce. However, it does not guarantee a recovery because strong downtrends can remain oversold while selling pressure continues.
What resistance level matters if Solana bounces?
If SOL rebounds from the $80 area, traders are watching resistance near $95. A move back toward that level would help show whether the market is recovering or only experiencing a short term relief bounce.
Is Solana’s bull run over?
It is too early to say that Solana’s bull run is over. The outcome depends on whether SOL can defend $80, whether it can recover toward $95, and whether broader macro and on chain conditions improve.