What to Know

  • Solana was down approximately 1.79% near $117 as of Oct. 8 after testing a major weekly resistance zone.
  • The $115 to $125 region previously acted as support through much of 2025 before breaking down in early 2026.
  • That same zone now acts as resistance, and SOL is attempting to reclaim it on the weekly chart.
  • The resistance area overlaps with the 100 week exponential moving average near $118.33, adding weight to the rejection risk.
  • A failed breakout could send SOL toward an ascending support trendline approaching the $95 to $100 region.
  • That potential move would represent a decline of roughly 13% to 17% from current levels.
  • The downside target also aligns with the 20 week exponential moving average near $97.91.
  • The weekly relative strength index has climbed to around 60, showing improved bullish momentum while still leaving room for a pullback.
  • A decisive weekly close above $125 would weaken the bearish setup and suggest buyers have absorbed overhead selling pressure.
  • Some chart watchers compare the current structure with a bullish 2023 fractal that preceded a rally toward $100 and later toward $250.
  • If SOL rebounds from support and breaks above $125, market participants may look for a longer term advance toward $248.

Solana Tests a Former Support Zone Turned Resistance

Solana is back at a technically important area, and the next weekly close could help determine whether the latest recovery attempt has enough strength to continue. As of Oct. 8, SOL traded near $117 after falling approximately 1.79%, with price action pressing into the $115 to $125 region. That band is attracting close attention because it previously functioned as a support area through much of 2025 before giving way in early 2026.

In technical analysis, a former support zone often becomes resistance after price breaks below it. Traders who bought near that area may look to exit positions when price returns, while short sellers may view the retest as an opportunity to position for renewed downside. That dynamic appears to be shaping the latest Solana setup, with SOL attempting to reclaim an area that now represents a key battleground between buyers and sellers.

The importance of the zone is reinforced by the location of the 100 week exponential moving average, which sits near $118.33. Long horizon moving averages are widely monitored because they smooth price action and can help define the broader trend. When a horizontal resistance area and a major moving average converge, technical traders often treat the zone as more meaningful than either signal on its own.

Why a Pullback Toward $95 to $100 Remains in Play

If SOL fails to break through the $115 to $125 resistance band, the chart leaves room for a retreat toward its ascending support trendline. That trendline is currently approaching the $95 to $100 region, a zone that could become the next major test for buyers. From current levels, such a move would imply a potential decline of roughly 13% to 17%.

The $95 to $100 area carries added relevance because it also aligns with the 20 week exponential moving average near $97.91. Shorter than the 100 week measure, the 20 week exponential moving average is often used to track intermediate trend support. When price pulls back toward this type of dynamic level during an uptrend attempt, buyers may step in if they believe the broader structure remains constructive.

For now, the potential downside target is not necessarily a signal that Solana is entering a sustained bearish reversal. Instead, it represents the level where market participants may look for evidence that buyers are still defending the higher low structure. If the $95 to $100 area holds, SOL could preserve the pattern that has supported its broader recovery attempt. If it fails, the technical picture would become more vulnerable.

Momentum Has Improved, but Resistance Still Matters

The weekly relative strength index has climbed to around 60, suggesting that bullish momentum has improved. An RSI reading near that area can reflect healthy demand without necessarily signaling an overheated market. Still, momentum indicators do not eliminate resistance risk, especially when price is challenging a zone that carries historical importance.

This is why traders are focused less on the indicator alone and more on how SOL behaves at the $115 to $125 band. A temporary move into resistance may not be enough to shift the outlook. A decisive weekly close above $125 would be more meaningful because it would show that buyers have absorbed available selling pressure and regained control of a level that previously rejected price.

Until that happens, the resistance zone remains the central obstacle. Solana can show improving momentum and still pull back if supply at overhead levels proves too strong. That is a common feature of trend repair phases, where price often needs multiple attempts before reclaiming a major breakdown area.

The Bullish Fractal That Keeps Long Term Buyers Interested

Despite the near term risk, Solana’s broader weekly structure still has a bullish comparison that some chart watchers are monitoring. The current setup resembles a pattern that appeared in 2023, when SOL repeatedly tested resistance around $25 to $28 while forming higher lows along an ascending support trendline.

That earlier resistance zone had also acted as support before breaking down, making the structure similar to the current $115 to $125 region. After several months of consolidation, SOL eventually reclaimed that resistance and rallied toward $100 by early 2024. The advance later extended toward $250, turning what had looked like heavy overhead supply into a launch point for a much larger move.

Market participants now see a comparable framework developing in 2026. SOL is again forming higher lows beneath a former support zone that has become resistance. If the pattern continues to echo the earlier structure, a pullback toward the rising trendline could form another higher low rather than mark the start of a deeper bearish phase.

Fractals are not guarantees. They are visual comparisons that help traders evaluate whether market behavior is repeating in a recognizable way. The value of the current Solana fractal depends on confirmation. Without a rebound from support and a weekly breakout above $125, the comparison remains only a potential roadmap rather than a confirmed bullish reversal.

What Would Confirm a Stronger Solana Recovery?

The clearest bullish signal would be a decisive weekly close above $125. That move would place SOL above the top of the current resistance band and weaken the argument for an immediate rejection. It would also suggest that sellers defending the former support area are losing influence.

If SOL first pulls back into the $95 to $100 region and then rebounds, traders would likely watch for a renewed attack on $125. A rebound from that support would preserve the higher low pattern, while a breakout above resistance would strengthen the case for a larger recovery. Under the bullish fractal scenario, some chart watchers would then look toward $248 as a longer term target, which is approximately 116% above current prices.

However, the bullish path requires SOL to defend its ascending trendline. A sustained breakdown below that structure would invalidate the constructive setup and increase the risk of a deeper correction. In that case, the comparison with the 2023 pattern would lose credibility, and traders would likely reassess the trend from a more defensive perspective.

Market Outlook for SOL

Solana’s current chart presents a mixed but clearly defined setup. The near term risk is that SOL rejects from the $115 to $125 resistance zone and slips toward $95 to $100. That area is important because it combines an ascending trendline with the 20 week exponential moving average near $97.91, making it a likely focus for buyers seeking to defend the trend.

At the same time, the broader structure has not fully broken down. The weekly RSI near 60 points to improved momentum, and the higher low pattern keeps the bullish fractal alive. The problem for bulls is that momentum must translate into a successful reclaim of resistance. Until SOL closes decisively above $125 on the weekly chart, the market remains vulnerable to a retest of lower support.

For FXCOINZ readers, the key levels are straightforward. The $115 to $125 zone is the immediate resistance area. The $95 to $100 region is the main downside support zone. A weekly close above $125 would improve the bullish case, while a sustained break below the rising trendline would undermine it. Between those levels, Solana is likely to remain a technically driven market where weekly closes matter more than intraday noise.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Why is Solana facing rejection risk?

Solana is testing the $115 to $125 region, which acted as support through much of 2025 before breaking down in early 2026. That same area is now resistance and also overlaps with the 100 week exponential moving average near $118.33.

What is the near term downside target for SOL?

If SOL fails to break above resistance, technical traders are watching the $95 to $100 region. That area lines up with the ascending support trendline and the 20 week exponential moving average near $97.91.

How large could the Solana pullback be?

A move from current levels toward the $95 to $100 support area would represent a potential decline of roughly 13% to 17%, based on the levels currently being monitored by market participants.

What level would weaken the bearish outlook?

A decisive weekly close above $125 would weaken the bearish case. Such a move would suggest buyers have absorbed selling pressure at the former support zone and reclaimed an important technical level.

Does the RSI support a bullish Solana view?

The weekly relative strength index has climbed to around 60, showing improved bullish momentum. However, that does not rule out a near term pullback while SOL is testing overhead resistance.

What is the 2023 fractal comparison?

Some chart watchers compare the current structure with Solana’s 2023 setup, when SOL tested resistance around $25 to $28 while forming higher lows. After reclaiming resistance, SOL rallied toward $100 by early 2024 and later toward $250.

Could SOL still rally toward $248?

A longer term move toward $248 remains a possibility under the bullish fractal scenario, but it would require SOL to defend support, rebound, and achieve a weekly breakout above $125.

What would invalidate the bullish structure?

A sustained breakdown below the ascending support trendline would invalidate the bullish structure and increase the risk of a deeper correction, weakening the case for a fractal based recovery.