WTI and Brent Crude Oil Forecast: Bearish Momentum Builds Below Key Pivot Levels

What to Know

• December WTI crude oil futures are trading with a bearish near-term tone while below the short-term pivot at $95.82.
• Last week’s close at $90.34 left WTI on the weak side of that pivot, keeping sellers in control for now.
• A sustained break below $95.82 could expose the main bottom at $86.00, where a move through that level would shift the main trend to down.
• Further WTI downside could bring the $81.50 to $80.31 area into focus, followed by a support cluster around the 52-week moving average at $74.39 and the long-term 61.8% level at $74.49.
• From the high at $104.99, December WTI futures have fallen over $18.00 while still preserving the broader weekly uptrend.
• January Brent crude oil futures are leaning bearish while holding below the pivot at $103.76.
• The new minor Brent range runs from $114.29 to $93.22, with its 50% pivot at $103.76 controlling the near-term direction.
• Brent could open additional downside under last week’s low at $93.22, although layered retracement support may slow the decline.
• For Brent, the longer-term trend remains constructive while price stays above the 52-week moving average at $79.28, even as downside momentum has strengthened.

Crude Oil Technical Picture Weakens

Crude oil markets are entering the week with a cautious technical tone as both WTI and Brent remain pressured below important pivot levels. The central issue for traders is not whether the broader energy complex has fully broken down, but whether recent downside momentum is strong enough to challenge the larger uptrend structures that are still visible on the longer-term charts.

For December WTI crude oil futures, the key line in the sand is the short-term pivot at $95.82. Trading below that level keeps the market on the defensive and gives sellers the near-term advantage. With last week’s close at $90.34, WTI finished well under that marker, reinforcing a bearish tone into the new trading period.

January Brent crude oil futures are facing a similar setup. The new minor range is defined by $114.29 to $93.22, placing the 50% pivot at $103.76. That pivot is now controlling the near-term direction. As long as Brent remains below $103.76, technical traders are likely to view rallies with caution and may continue to treat the market as vulnerable to further selling pressure.

WTI Holds Uptrend, But Sellers Have the Edge

The WTI weekly swing chart still reflects an uptrend, but the shorter-term price action has turned decisively weaker. This tension is important because it means the market has not yet fully confirmed a larger bearish reversal, even though momentum has shifted against buyers. In practical terms, the market is testing whether the current selloff is a correction within a broader advance or the early stage of a deeper trend change.

A sustained move below $95.82 would continue to indicate that sellers have control. If pressure builds, the next major level is the main bottom at $86.00. A move through $86.00 would change the main trend to down, giving bearish traders a stronger technical argument and potentially inviting additional selling from momentum-focused participants.

If WTI breaks the main bottom, follow-through pressure could generate enough downside force to drive the market toward the key $81.50 to $80.31 area. That zone is important because it represents a region where some market participants may begin to look for value. In a market that has already fallen sharply from its recent high, the closer price gets to major retracement support, the greater the risk that late sellers encounter bottom-picking and short-covering.

If the $81.50 to $80.31 area fails to attract durable support, attention would shift to the next major support cluster. That cluster is formed by the 52-week moving average at $74.39 and the long-term 61.8% level at $74.49. The proximity of those two levels gives the zone added technical significance. A test of that area would represent a much deeper correction and could become a decisive battleground between longer-term buyers and sellers pressing for a broader trend reversal.

Retracement Zones Could Complicate the Downside

While the WTI setup is bearish below $95.82, the path lower may not be straightforward. A break through $86.00 would place the market in position to test 50% to 61.8% retracement zones at $85.99 to $81.50 and $80.31 to $74.49. These areas often attract attention because they can represent value for traders who believe the larger uptrend remains intact.

That creates a tactical challenge. Bearish traders may see the break under $86.00 as confirmation of a trend shift, but buyers may see the same decline as an opportunity to enter near major support. This is why support behavior inside the retracement zones will matter. If buyers step in aggressively and price begins to stabilize, downside momentum could fade. If those zones fail to hold, however, the bearish case would gain credibility.

The recent WTI decline has also been substantial in size. From the high at $104.99, December WTI futures have plunged over $18.00 while still maintaining the broader uptrend. That combination raises a key tactical question for traders: whether to sell into weakness near possible major support, wait for a retracement toward the pivot, or consider whether the decline itself has created a buying opportunity.

For many technical traders, the answer may depend on whether WTI can retrace toward $95.82. A return to that level would provide a clearer test of control. If sellers defend the pivot, the bearish structure remains intact. If buyers overcome $95.82, the near-term outlook would improve and the downside bias would need to be reassessed.

Brent Crude Faces Pressure Below $103.76

January Brent crude oil futures are also leaning bearish because of the sustained move under the $103.76 pivot. That level is the 50% point of the minor range from $114.29 to $93.22, making it an important reference point for short-term direction. While below it, Brent remains vulnerable to additional weakness.

The downside could open further if Brent moves under last week’s low at $93.22. A breach of that level would signal that sellers are extending the decline and could increase pressure on the market. However, the technical landscape suggests that any move lower may face obstacles. Layers of retracement support below current prices could attract dip buyers, especially if longer-term trend measures remain intact.

The key longer-term reference for Brent is the 52-week moving average at $79.28. As long as Brent remains on the strong side of that moving average, some chart watchers may continue to view the larger trend as bullish. That does not eliminate the risk of further downside, but it does frame the current move as a momentum shift rather than a confirmed longer-term breakdown.

In other words, Brent’s longer-term structure can remain constructive while near-term momentum points lower. This is a common market condition during corrective phases, particularly after a strong advance. Traders often respond by watching whether pullbacks hold above major moving averages or whether selling pressure becomes strong enough to force a deeper change in trend behavior.

Key Levels May Decide the Next Move

The crude oil outlook now hinges on how price behaves around the most important technical markers. For WTI, $95.82 is the pivot that separates bearish control from a possible recovery attempt. Below that level, the market remains exposed to $86.00, then $81.50 to $80.31, and potentially the deeper support cluster around $74.39 to $74.49.

For Brent, the equivalent near-term pivot is $103.76. Remaining below that level keeps pressure on the market, while a push above it would suggest that buyers are regaining influence. On the downside, $93.22 is the level that could open the door to further weakness, though layered support may slow the decline and produce choppy price action.

The broader message is that both contracts are under bearish near-term pressure, but neither setup is free of risk for sellers. Major support zones sit below the market, and crude oil often reacts sharply when prices reach areas that technical traders associate with value. That means downside continuation may require sustained selling pressure rather than a brief break of support.

Until buyers reclaim the relevant pivots, crude oil’s near-term bias remains tilted lower. Still, the presence of major retracement zones and long-term moving averages means traders may need to be prepared for volatility, short-covering, and possible countertrend rebounds if support begins to form.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Why is WTI crude oil viewed with a bearish near-term bias?

WTI is viewed with a bearish near-term bias because it is trading below the short-term pivot at $95.82. Last week’s close at $90.34 kept the market on the weak side of that level, suggesting sellers currently have control.

What level could change the main trend for WTI?

The main level to watch for WTI is $86.00. A move through that main bottom would change the main trend to down and could increase the risk of additional selling pressure.

Where is the next major WTI support area?

If selling pressure continues, WTI could move toward the $81.50 to $80.31 area. If that zone fails, the next major support cluster is near the 52-week moving average at $74.39 and the long-term 61.8% level at $74.49.

Why could WTI sellers face risk near support?

WTI sellers could face risk near support because retracement zones often attract dip buyers and short-covering. Areas such as $85.99 to $81.50 and $80.31 to $74.49 may be viewed by some traders as value zones if the broader trend is still respected.

What would improve the WTI outlook?

The WTI outlook would improve if buyers overcome the $95.82 pivot or if strong support forms inside one of the major retracement zones. Either development would suggest that selling momentum is weakening.

Why is Brent crude under pressure?

Brent is under pressure because it has sustained a move below the $103.76 pivot. That level is the 50% point of the minor range from $114.29 to $93.22 and is controlling the near-term direction.

What happens if Brent breaks below $93.22?

If Brent moves below last week’s low at $93.22, the trade could open further to the downside. However, layered retracement support may keep the decline from being smooth, as dip buyers could appear at multiple levels.

Is Brent’s longer-term trend still bullish?

Brent’s longer-term trend can still be viewed as bullish while the market holds above the 52-week moving average at $79.28. Even so, momentum has shifted lower, so near-term conditions remain cautious.

What are crude oil traders watching most closely now?

Crude oil traders are watching whether WTI can reclaim $95.82 and whether Brent can recover above $103.76. They are also watching whether breaks of lower support levels attract follow-through selling or trigger dip-buying and short-covering.