What to Know

  • XRP was trading near $1.29 on Sept. 16 after slipping below the lower boundary of a daily symmetrical triangle.
  • The breakdown area sits around $1.33 to $1.35, suggesting sellers have gained short-term control.
  • The triangle’s measured downside target is near $1.10 to $1.12, roughly 14% below current prices.
  • XRP is trying to hold its 50-day exponential moving average near $1.28, with the 100-day exponential moving average around $1.25 providing nearby support.
  • A decisive daily close beneath the $1.25 to $1.28 zone would strengthen the bearish case.
  • The daily relative strength index has fallen toward 45, below the neutral 50 level, signaling weaker buying pressure.
  • A broader bull flag scenario remains possible if XRP reverses higher and breaks above $1.38 to $1.40.
  • A confirmed bull flag breakout could bring the measured target near $1.97 back into focus.

XRP Reaches a Critical Technical Crossroads

XRP is entering a pivotal stretch as short-term bearish pressure collides with a broader bullish continuation setup. The token was trading near $1.29 on Sept. 16 after moving below the lower trendline of a symmetrical triangle that had formed on the daily chart. That breakdown has shifted attention to whether sellers can extend momentum toward the measured downside objective near $1.10 to $1.12, or whether buyers can quickly reclaim lost ground and preserve the larger bull flag structure.

The immediate market focus is the $1.25 to $1.28 support band. This area includes the 50-day exponential moving average near $1.28 and the 100-day exponential moving average around $1.25. For technical traders, that zone now functions as a line between short-term damage and a deeper breakdown. If XRP holds this area, the market may continue to treat the move below the triangle as a false break or an incomplete bearish signal. If the token closes decisively below it on the daily chart, the risk of a further slide toward the triangle target would increase.

Symmetrical Triangle Breakdown Puts Sellers in Focus

The bearish case begins with the symmetrical triangle that developed after XRP’s sharp August rally. The structure formed as price compressed between descending resistance and rising support, a pattern that often reflects a period of indecision. As the range tightened, traders watched for a directional move that could define the next phase of momentum. XRP’s break below the lower boundary around $1.33 to $1.35 has therefore raised concern that sellers are taking control of the near-term trend.

Symmetrical triangles can break in either direction, but once price moves outside the structure, chart watchers often use the height of the pattern to estimate a measured target. In this case, the downside target sits near $1.10 to $1.12. That would represent roughly a 14% decline from current prices. The target is not a guarantee, but it gives market participants a technical reference point if bearish follow-through builds.

The quality of the breakdown matters. A brief move under support followed by rapid recovery would weaken the bearish interpretation. A decisive daily close below the support cluster would make the setup more convincing. This is why the $1.25 to $1.28 region is being treated as the immediate battleground. The longer XRP trades below the former triangle boundary without recovering, the more pressure builds on the moving-average support zone underneath.

Moving Averages Define the Immediate Support Zone

XRP’s 50-day exponential moving average near $1.28 is the first major support line now in view. This moving average is often used by traders to judge whether a market is maintaining medium-term momentum. Price action around it can influence sentiment because it helps separate routine pullbacks from more meaningful trend deterioration. XRP’s attempt to hold this level is therefore an important test of whether buyers remain active after the triangle break.

The 100-day exponential moving average, currently around $1.25, adds another layer of support immediately below. Together, the 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages create a support band rather than a single price point. Markets often probe such areas before deciding direction, so volatility around this zone would not be surprising. What matters most is whether XRP can avoid a decisive daily close beneath the band.

If the token falls below $1.25 to $1.28 and fails to reclaim it, technical traders may see the move as confirmation that the triangle breakdown is gaining strength. In that scenario, attention would likely shift more firmly toward $1.10 to $1.12. On the other hand, if XRP stabilizes around the moving averages and begins to recover, bearish pressure could fade and the broader bullish pattern may remain viable.

RSI Signals Fading Buying Pressure

Momentum readings are also leaning cautious. XRP’s daily relative strength index has fallen toward 45, moving below the neutral 50 level. The relative strength index is widely used to assess whether buying or selling pressure is gaining influence. A reading below 50 does not automatically mean a market must continue lower, but it does suggest that bullish momentum has weakened compared with earlier phases of the move.

For XRP, the RSI decline reinforces the importance of the current support test. If price remains under pressure while momentum stays below the neutral line, sellers may become more confident. If the RSI stabilizes and price reclaims nearby resistance, the bearish signal would become less compelling. Momentum indicators are most useful when read alongside price structure, and at present both are pointing to a market that needs a clear bullish response to avoid deeper downside.

Bull Flag Scenario Still Leaves a Path Toward $1.97

Despite the short-term breakdown risk, XRP’s broader structure has not fully abandoned the bullish case. Since August, price action can still be interpreted by some chart watchers as a bull flag. This type of pattern usually appears after a sharp advance, followed by a downward or sideways consolidation phase. If buyers eventually force a breakout above the flag, the pattern is often viewed as a continuation signal.

In XRP’s case, the potential flagpole began with a rally from roughly $1.00 to $1.55. The subsequent decline within a descending consolidation structure may represent the flag portion of the setup. For that interpretation to gain traction, XRP would need to reverse higher and break decisively above the upper trendline around $1.38 to $1.40. Without that move, the bull flag remains only a potential setup rather than a confirmed signal.

If XRP clears $1.38 to $1.40 with conviction, technical traders could refocus on the measured bull flag target near $1.97. That outcome would imply more than a 50% advance from current levels. However, the path would not be free of resistance. XRP would first need to reclaim the cluster around its 20-day and 200-day exponential moving averages near $1.35, then push beyond the August swing high around $1.55.

Resistance Levels Buyers Need to Reclaim

The first challenge for XRP bulls is regaining the zone near $1.35, where the 20-day and 200-day exponential moving averages are clustered. That area overlaps with the lower side of the former triangle breakdown region around $1.33 to $1.35, making it technically important. A move back above this zone would show that buyers are attempting to invalidate the bearish breakdown.

After that, the $1.38 to $1.40 region becomes the key breakout area for the bull flag scenario. A decisive push through that band would suggest XRP has escaped the descending consolidation and could resume the broader upward structure. Technical traders would then watch the August swing high around $1.55 as the next major checkpoint before the larger $1.97 target could become more relevant.

Until those levels are reclaimed, XRP remains vulnerable to selling pressure. The market does not need to collapse immediately for the bearish case to remain alive. Simply failing to recover above former support and moving-average resistance could keep sentiment cautious. That is why the current structure presents a clear split: bulls need recovery and confirmation, while bears need a daily close below the immediate support band.

Outlook: $1.25 to $1.28 Is the Deciding Zone

The XRP forecast now turns on a narrow but important support area. Holding $1.25 to $1.28 would keep the broader bull flag possibility intact and give buyers a chance to attempt a recovery toward $1.35, then $1.38 to $1.40. Losing that support on a decisive daily close would strengthen the triangle breakdown and increase the probability of a move toward $1.10 to $1.12.

For now, XRP is neither fully bearish nor clearly bullish. The short-term structure has weakened, momentum has cooled, and sellers have scored a technical win with the break below the symmetrical triangle. At the same time, the larger continuation pattern has not been completely invalidated as long as the moving-average support zone holds. FXCOINZ will continue to monitor whether XRP can defend this area or whether the market shifts toward the lower measured target.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Why is XRP at an important technical point?

XRP is testing a key support zone after falling below the lower trendline of a daily symmetrical triangle. The $1.25 to $1.28 area is important because it contains the 50-day exponential moving average near $1.28 and the 100-day exponential moving average around $1.25.

What is the bearish target for XRP?

The measured downside target from the symmetrical triangle sits near $1.10 to $1.12. This level is roughly 14% below current prices and would become more relevant if XRP closes decisively below the $1.25 to $1.28 support zone.

What level must XRP hold to avoid a deeper decline?

Technical traders are watching the $1.25 to $1.28 area as the immediate support battleground. Holding this zone could help preserve the broader bullish setup, while a confirmed daily close beneath it would strengthen the bearish breakdown case.

What does the RSI say about XRP momentum?

XRP’s daily relative strength index has fallen toward 45, below the neutral 50 level. This suggests buying pressure has faded, although it does not by itself guarantee that XRP will continue lower.

What is the bullish case for XRP?

The bullish case is based on a potential bull flag that developed after XRP rallied from roughly $1.00 to $1.55. If XRP reverses higher and breaks above $1.38 to $1.40, the measured target near $1.97 could come back into focus.

What resistance levels matter most for XRP?

XRP first needs to reclaim the moving-average cluster near $1.35. After that, the $1.38 to $1.40 region is the key breakout area, followed by the August swing high around $1.55.

Is the $1.97 XRP target confirmed?

No. The $1.97 target depends on XRP confirming the bull flag with a decisive breakout above $1.38 to $1.40. Until that happens, the target remains a technical scenario rather than a confirmed outcome.

Can XRP still recover after the triangle breakdown?

Yes, XRP can still recover if buyers defend the $1.25 to $1.28 support area and push price back above nearby resistance. A strong recovery would reduce the impact of the triangle breakdown and keep the broader bullish structure alive.