What to Know
- XRP has fallen by 7% in the past 7 days, underperforming most of the top 10 tokens except Hyperliquid.
- The token was rejected again after attempting to move above the pivotal $1.32 level.
- Negative momentum accelerated on Thursday as broader market sentiment weakened after the Democrats’ big win in the U.S. mid-term elections.
- The recent rejection of the Clarity Act in Congress has added pressure to crypto sentiment.
- Market confidence has also been hit by the recent $6.3 billion hack suffered by Binance.
- On-chain data from Santiment shows XRP exchange inflows, measured by the 30-day moving average, have climbed to the highest level since September 26.
- Technical traders are watching $1.14 as the next bearish target, with $1.04 seen as a possible deeper downside level if weakness continues.
- The 4-hour RSI has moved below 30, a zone that previously coincided with continued downside rather than an immediate bottom.
- XRP has still seen project-specific progress, including approval of a national bank charter in the United States and accelerating adoption of Ripple USD.
XRP Rejection at $1.32 Revives Downside Pressure
XRP is back under pressure after failing to clear the $1.32 area, a level that has become a major short-term battleground for bulls and bears. The latest rejection has reinforced the view among technical traders that supply remains heavy near that zone, especially after sellers quickly pushed the token lower following the failed breakout attempt.
The move has been sharp enough to place XRP among the weaker large-cap crypto assets over the past 7 days. With a 7% decline during that period, XRP has lagged most tokens in the top 10, with Hyperliquid being the notable exception. That relative weakness matters because crypto markets often rotate quickly toward assets showing strength, while tokens struggling at resistance can face heavier selling as traders reduce exposure.
The rejection also comes at a sensitive moment for the broader digital asset market. Risk appetite has cooled, and crypto traders are reassessing whether the current bull market can continue smoothly in the face of political, regulatory, and exchange-security headwinds. For XRP, that has created a difficult backdrop in which positive project-level developments are being overshadowed by short-term fear.
Political and Market Headwinds Weigh on Sentiment
Negative momentum appeared to intensify on Thursday as market participants digested the impact of the Democrats’ big win in the U.S. mid-term elections. The result has been interpreted by some crypto investors as a tougher backdrop for digital asset legislation, particularly because the party has often been viewed as less supportive of broad crypto adoption in the United States.
The pressure became more visible after the Clarity Act was shot down in Congress. For many in the industry, that represented a setback for one of the most important legislative efforts aimed at bringing clearer rules to the digital asset market. Without regulatory clarity, institutional adoption can become more complicated, and traders often respond by applying a higher risk discount to crypto assets.
At the same time, the recent $6.3 billion hack suffered by Binance has added another layer of caution. Large security incidents tend to hit market confidence even when the direct impact is concentrated around one platform, because they remind investors of custody, liquidity, and counterparty risks across the broader crypto ecosystem. For XRP, this weaker macro-crypto mood has made it harder for bullish catalysts to gain traction.
Project Progress Is Being Overlooked
Despite the bearish short-term price action, XRP’s underlying narrative has not been entirely negative. The project has made notable progress, including the approval of XRP’s national bank charter in the United States. That development is significant because it points to deeper integration with regulated financial infrastructure, a theme that has long been central to XRP’s investment case.
Adoption of Ripple USD, also known as RLUSD, has also been accelerating. Stablecoin adoption can strengthen a payments network by improving settlement options, liquidity pathways, and institutional usability. In addition, Ripple has secured key licenses to operate as a digital payments provider in major jurisdictions, supporting the view that the company continues to build regulatory and operational reach.
Still, markets do not always reward fundamental progress immediately. During periods of heavy risk reduction, traders often focus first on liquidity, momentum, and headline risk. That appears to be happening now, with XRP’s project-specific positives being discounted while broader crypto sentiment remains fragile.
Exchange Inflows Signal Potential Selling Pressure
On-chain data is adding to the caution. Santiment data shows that the 30-day moving average for XRP exchange inflows has spiked to the highest level seen since September 26, when the current downtrend began. Rising exchange inflows are often watched closely because tokens sent to exchanges may be prepared for sale, used as collateral, or positioned for active trading.
Exchange inflows do not guarantee immediate selling. Some investors move assets for reasons that have nothing to do with liquidation, including portfolio rebalancing or exchange-based services. However, when rising inflows appear alongside falling prices and weak momentum, traders often interpret the pattern as a warning that additional supply could hit the market.
That risk is especially important for XRP now because the token has already broken below key short-term support. If sellers continue to dominate order books, attempts at recovery may be sold quickly, creating a pattern of lower highs and lower lows. In that environment, even bullish news can struggle to shift the market’s direction until positioning becomes less crowded on the bearish side.
The 4-Hour Chart Points to Fragile Momentum
The 4-hour chart has become the focal point for short-term traders. XRP’s failed push near $1.32 was followed by a large bearish engulfing candle, a pattern that technical traders often associate with a shift in control from buyers to sellers. The candle reinforced the idea that a sell wall remained active around that level and that buyers lacked the strength to absorb supply.
After that rejection, XRP moved quickly toward $1.20, a support area that has now been broken. Losing $1.20 has increased attention on the next downside target at $1.14. If that area holds, some chart watchers believe XRP could stage a technical bounce back toward $1.20. Such a move would not be unusual after a steep drop, especially if short-term sellers take profit and late bears become exposed to a squeeze.
However, a bounce from $1.14 would not necessarily confirm a durable recovery. In weak trends, broken support can become resistance, and rallies can serve mainly to reset momentum before another leg lower. That is why traders are likely to focus not only on whether XRP bounces, but also on how it behaves if it retests the $1.20 area from below.
RSI Below 30 Raises the Risk of Further Weakness
The 4-hour RSI has moved below 30, placing XRP in an oversold momentum zone. In some market conditions, oversold readings can precede a rebound because selling becomes stretched. But historical behavior in XRP suggests caution. In the past two instances when the 4-hour RSI fell below 30, the move did not mark the immediate end of the bearish phase.
Instead, those previous signals suggested that sellers were still in control, with XRP continuing to make lower lows for at least a week more before forming a short-term floor. If a similar pattern develops again, the current weakness could extend beyond the first oversold reading, leaving the token vulnerable to another leg lower.
That is why $1.04 is being watched as a deeper downside level. If XRP reaches that area, some traders may view the conditions for a more credible recovery as stronger than they are now. The reasoning is that a deeper reset could flush out weak hands, reduce leverage, and bring the price closer to an area where risk-reward becomes more attractive for buyers willing to absorb volatility.
Short-Term Outlook Remains Cautious
The near-term outlook for XRP remains cautious while the token trades under pressure and exchange inflows stay elevated. A recovery attempt is possible, particularly if the price stabilizes near $1.14 and momentum begins to improve. But until XRP reclaims lost support and reduces the risk of another lower low, bearish traders are likely to remain active.
The broader crypto market backdrop is also important. Legislative uncertainty, political concerns, and exchange-security headlines are all weighing on risk appetite. Those factors can make technical support levels more vulnerable because traders may be less willing to step in aggressively during periods of negative sentiment.
For longer-term XRP watchers, the key tension is clear. The project continues to make progress on licensing, payments infrastructure, and RLUSD adoption, but price action is currently being driven by short-term positioning and macro-crypto fear. Until that imbalance changes, XRP may remain exposed to downside tests even if its broader fundamental story remains intact.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Why is XRP falling right now?
XRP is falling after another rejection near $1.32, weaker crypto sentiment, and rising exchange inflows that suggest some investors may be preparing to sell or actively trade their holdings.
How much has XRP dropped recently?
XRP has dropped by 7% in the past 7 days, making it one of the weaker performers among the top 10 tokens during that period, except for Hyperliquid.
Why is the $1.32 level important for XRP?
The $1.32 level has acted as a pivotal resistance area. XRP’s failure to break above it triggered renewed selling pressure and confirmed that sellers remain active around that zone.
What does rising XRP exchange inflow mean?
Rising exchange inflow means more XRP is being moved onto trading platforms. While this does not guarantee selling, it can indicate that investors are positioning for transactions that may increase market supply.
What is the next key downside target for XRP?
Technical traders are watching $1.14 as the next bearish target. If selling continues and that level fails to hold, attention may shift toward $1.04.
Could XRP bounce from current levels?
A bounce is possible if XRP stabilizes near $1.14, with some traders watching for a move back toward $1.20. However, such a rebound could be temporary if broader momentum remains bearish.
Why does the 4-hour RSI matter?
The 4-hour RSI helps traders assess short-term momentum. XRP’s RSI moving below 30 shows oversold conditions, but previous similar readings were followed by further downside before a short-term floor formed.
Are XRP’s fundamentals still improving?
XRP has seen positive project-level developments, including approval of a national bank charter in the United States, accelerating RLUSD adoption, and key licenses for Ripple as a digital payments provider.
Is XRP’s bull market over?
Current weakness does not necessarily confirm the end of the broader bull market. The move may reflect short-term volatility, bearish positioning, and market-wide caution, though the correction may not be finished yet.
