What to Know
- Bitcoin’s rally is showing signs of cooling even as CryptoQuant’s Bull Score has reached 90 out of 100.
- BTC recently slipped from an eight-month high near $87,400 to just above $83,300 during Wednesday Asian morning hours.
- Spot demand has contracted by roughly 170,000 BTC over the past 30 days, suggesting fewer buyers are absorbing available supply.
- Growth in speculative futures demand fell from about 164,000 BTC on Sept. 14 to 16,000 BTC on Sept. 29, a 90% drop in 15 days.
- Recent Bitcoin buyers are holding average unrealized gains of 33%, the widest since December 2024.
- Bitcoin holders locked in gains on 25,700 BTC on Sept. 22, the largest single day of profit-taking this year.
- Altcoin deposits to exchanges reached 76,000 over seven days, the most since October 2025, from 51,000 separate addresses.
- Traders are watching a key U.S. inflation reading for signals on interest rates, the dollar, and broader appetite for risk assets such as crypto.
Bitcoin’s Rally Meets a Demand Test
Bitcoin’s latest advance is entering a more complicated phase, with bullish trend indicators still elevated while the demand profile beneath the move begins to soften. BTC rose 0.4% to just above $83,300 during Wednesday Asian morning hours, but that level remained below the recent eight-month high near $87,400. The pullback is not large enough on its own to invalidate the broader advance, yet it is notable because it comes as several onchain and derivatives measures point to fading buyer intensity.
The standout signal is CryptoQuant’s Bull Score, which has climbed to 90 out of 100. The gauge combines onchain and market indicators into one reading, and a score close to the top of its range indicates that many trend components are still aligned with a bullish backdrop. The move higher in the score followed Bitcoin’s break above its 365-day moving average last week, a threshold CryptoQuant treats as confirmation of a bull market.
For bullish traders, that kind of reading can reinforce confidence that Bitcoin remains in a constructive longer-term structure. For more cautious market participants, however, a score so close to its ceiling can also serve as a warning that the move may be crowded or mature in the short term. A strong trend reading does not guarantee uninterrupted gains, especially when the underlying demand that powered the breakout starts to fade.
Spot Demand Shrinks by Roughly 170,000 BTC
The most important cooling sign is the contraction in spot demand. CryptoQuant estimates that spot demand has shrunk by about 170,000 BTC over the past 30 days. That suggests the market is absorbing fewer coins than are becoming available, reducing the strength of the immediate bid under Bitcoin.
CryptoQuant measures apparent demand by comparing newly mined Bitcoin with changes in the pile of coins that have not moved for a year or more. When coins are being absorbed and long-held supply is not expanding in a way that overwhelms new issuance, demand appears healthier. When the gauge contracts, it indicates that buyers are not taking up available supply with the same force.
This does not necessarily mean the bull trend has ended. Bitcoin rallies often pause, reset, or rotate through periods of weaker demand before making another attempt higher. Still, shrinking spot demand matters because spot buying is generally viewed as a sturdier foundation than leveraged speculation. If fewer long-term or cash buyers are stepping in, price advances can become more dependent on futures positioning and shorter-term momentum flows.
Futures Momentum Drops Sharply
Derivatives activity is also sending a cautionary signal. Growth in speculative futures demand dropped from about 164,000 BTC on Sept. 14 to 16,000 BTC on Sept. 29. That represents a 90% drop in 15 days and points to a rapid slowdown in leveraged appetite.
Futures demand can help fuel fast rallies when traders add exposure aggressively, but it can also disappear quickly when momentum slows or volatility increases. A sharp decline in futures demand growth suggests that speculative traders are becoming less willing to chase the market higher at current levels. That can make it harder for Bitcoin to extend gains without renewed spot accumulation or a fresh macro catalyst.
Market participants are therefore watching whether the retreat in futures appetite becomes a temporary reset or the start of a broader unwind. A cooling derivatives market can be healthy if it reduces excess leverage and prevents overheating. But if it occurs alongside contracting spot demand, the near-term balance of risks becomes more two-sided.
Profit-Taking Rises as Buyers Sit on Gains
Profit-taking is another key pressure point. Recent Bitcoin buyers are holding average unrealized gains of 33%, the widest since December 2024. When a large group of recent entrants is sitting on sizable paper profits, the incentive to lock in gains can increase, especially if momentum begins to slow.
That dynamic has already appeared in realized activity. Bitcoin holders locked in gains on 25,700 BTC on Sept. 22, marking the largest single day of profit-taking this year. Selling into strength is a normal feature of bull markets, but heavy profit-taking can cap rallies if fresh demand is not strong enough to absorb the supply.
Technical traders often view this type of setup as a test of conviction. If buyers quickly absorb profit-taking and Bitcoin stabilizes above important trend levels, the market may rebuild momentum. If supply continues to appear on rebounds, the rally can lose force even while broader trend indicators remain supportive.
Altcoin Exchange Deposits Add to Supply Concerns
The cooling signs are not limited to Bitcoin. Altcoin holders have also been moving coins onto exchanges. CryptoQuant counted 76,000 altcoin deposits to exchanges over seven days, the most since October 2025, from 51,000 separate addresses.
Exchange deposits are closely watched because coins sitting on trading venues can be sold quickly. Not every deposit leads to immediate selling, and some transfers may reflect market-making, collateral management, or portfolio rebalancing. Even so, a sharp increase in deposits raises the amount of supply that can potentially hit the market during a bounce.
Major tokens showed modest strength during the session. SOL and ZEC led among large-cap names, each rising nearly 2%, with SOL around $119 and ZEC just above $1,400. XRP gained about 1% to just under $1.50, while ether, BNB, and TRX each added less than 1%. The broad move higher suggests risk appetite has not vanished, but the exchange-deposit data shows that many holders may be preparing to act if prices offer favorable exits.
Macro Backdrop Keeps Traders on Alert
Bitcoin’s small gain came as broader Asian markets rebounded. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.9%, with 10 of its 11 industry groups higher, while bonds steadied after a difficult selloff. SoftBank Group jumped more than 6% after Bloomberg reported that OpenAI is seeking at least $30 billion in fresh funding at a $1.4 trillion valuation. Equity-index futures also pointed to gains in Europe and on Wall Street.
That macro backdrop matters for crypto because Bitcoin continues to trade as a risk-sensitive asset during periods when interest-rate expectations are shifting. Traders are waiting on a key U.S. inflation reading later in the day for clues on where interest rates may go next. A high inflation print tends to raise the perceived odds of tighter policy, which can lift the dollar and weigh on risk assets such as Bitcoin. A softer print can tilt expectations toward easier policy and support demand for crypto.
The immediate challenge for Bitcoin is that macro support may need to arrive at a time when onchain demand is cooling. If inflation data improves risk sentiment, Bitcoin could find another bid. If the data strengthens the case for higher rates or a firmer dollar, the lack of fresh spot demand could become a more visible headwind.
What the Bull Score Really Signals
A Bull Score of 90 out of 100 is not a bearish reading. It signals that Bitcoin’s broader market structure remains strong across a range of trend and onchain indicators. However, the warning for bulls is that strong trend scores can coexist with short-term exhaustion.
The recent break above the 365-day moving average remains an important structural milestone. Many chart watchers use long-term moving averages to separate bullish regimes from bearish ones. Once price reclaims such a trend marker, momentum traders often become more constructive. Yet the quality of the follow-through depends on whether new buyers continue to enter the market.
At present, the data suggests that the breakout has not yet been matched by expanding demand. Spot demand is contracting, futures demand growth has slowed sharply, and profit-taking has increased. That combination does not guarantee a reversal, but it does mean the market may need a reset, a consolidation phase, or a new catalyst before Bitcoin can challenge its recent high again.
Near-Term Outlook for Bitcoin
The near-term outlook for Bitcoin is balanced between a still-bullish trend framework and weakening demand conditions. Bulls can point to the elevated Bull Score, the recent move above the 365-day moving average, and the fact that BTC remains far above levels associated with weaker market phases. Bears and cautious traders can point to the decline from near $87,400, the contraction in spot demand, the sharp drop in futures demand growth, and the rise in profit-taking.
For the rally to regain momentum, market participants will likely want to see fresh spot demand return, exchange supply absorbed, and derivatives activity stabilize without creating excessive leverage. Without those conditions, rebounds may remain vulnerable to selling from holders who are already in profit.
Bitcoin’s broader bull case has not disappeared, but the market is no longer moving with the same demand impulse that drove the recent eight-month high. The next phase may depend less on whether trend indicators are bullish and more on whether real buyers return in enough size to absorb profit-taking and available supply.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Why is Bitcoin’s Bull Score important?
Bitcoin’s Bull Score is important because it combines several onchain and market indicators into a single reading. A score of 90 out of 100 suggests that many broader trend signals remain bullish, but it does not rule out short-term cooling or profit-taking.
Does a Bull Score of 90 mean Bitcoin will keep rising?
No. A Bull Score of 90 indicates a strong trend backdrop, but it does not guarantee further gains. Bitcoin can still pull back or consolidate if spot demand weakens, futures demand slows, or holders take profits.
How much has Bitcoin spot demand contracted?
CryptoQuant estimates that Bitcoin spot demand has contracted by roughly 170,000 BTC over the past 30 days. That means the market is absorbing fewer coins than it was during the stronger phase of the rally.
What happened to Bitcoin futures demand?
Growth in speculative futures demand fell from about 164,000 BTC on Sept. 14 to 16,000 BTC on Sept. 29. That was a 90% drop in 15 days, showing that leveraged demand has cooled sharply.
Why does profit-taking matter for BTC?
Profit-taking matters because it adds sell-side supply to the market. Recent Bitcoin buyers have average unrealized gains of 33%, and holders locked in gains on 25,700 BTC on Sept. 22, making fresh demand important for absorbing that supply.
What price levels are traders watching?
Traders are focused on Bitcoin’s pullback from the eight-month high near $87,400 and its position just above $83,300 during Wednesday Asian morning hours. They are also watching the broader significance of the recent break above the 365-day moving average.
Are altcoins showing similar warning signs?
Altcoin exchange deposits have risen, with 76,000 deposits over seven days from 51,000 separate addresses, the most since October 2025. Since coins on exchanges can be sold quickly, this raises attention around potential supply during market rebounds.
How could U.S. inflation data affect Bitcoin?
A higher inflation reading can raise expectations for tighter interest-rate policy, support the dollar, and weigh on risk assets such as Bitcoin. A softer reading can improve risk appetite and may support crypto demand.
Is Bitcoin still in a bull market?
Bitcoin’s elevated Bull Score and move above the 365-day moving average point to a constructive broader trend. However, the contraction in spot demand, weaker futures growth, and rising profit-taking suggest the rally may need renewed demand to extend.