What to Know

  • Bitcoin traded around $77,890 on Thursday morning, up 0.76% since midnight UTC but still down 2.89% over the past week.
  • The dollar index slipped 0.32% to 99.259, helping lift crypto, metals and equity futures.
  • Gold rose 0.97% to around $4,434, silver gained 0.88% to $65.94, Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 0.20%, and S&P 500 futures added 0.15%.
  • Spot bitcoin ETFs posted $9.3 million in net outflows, marking a second straight day of selling after Tuesday’s $239 million outflow.
  • PONS climbed 30.85% over 24 hours to 50 cents and was up 318.72% over the week.
  • ARB rose 16.77% over 24 hours to 13 cents, extending its rally into a third consecutive session as Robinhood Chain revenue remained a key market narrative.
  • Arbitrum open interest increased nearly 10% to 1.58 billion ARB, the highest on record.
  • Crypto futures sentiment shifted toward neutral, with the 24-hour long-short taker volume ratio moving into balance.
  • Bitcoin and ether implied volatility stayed calm, while higher-strike bitcoin calls at $82,000 and $84,000 remained active in options trading.

Bitcoin Stabilizes After Wednesday’s Pullback

Bitcoin recovered part of its recent decline on Thursday morning, trading around $77,890 after rising 0.76% since midnight UTC. The move helped the largest cryptocurrency claw back some ground lost during Wednesday’s selloff, though the broader short-term picture remained restrained, with bitcoin still down 2.89% over the past week.

The rebound arrived as macro conditions turned more supportive for risk assets. A softer dollar helped lift a wide range of markets, including crypto, metals and U.S. equity futures. The dollar index fell 0.32% to 99.259, easing pressure on assets that often benefit when the U.S. currency weakens. For crypto traders, the shift offered a modest relief signal after recent selling pressure, although bitcoin’s weekly loss showed that conviction had not fully returned.

Precious metals also advanced alongside digital assets. Gold added 0.97% to around $4,434, while silver gained 0.88% to $65.94 following dips in both markets on Wednesday. Equity futures also firmed, with Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.20% and S&P 500 futures higher by 0.15%. The synchronized move across markets suggested that dollar weakness, rather than a crypto-only catalyst, was a major factor behind Thursday’s early improvement.

ETF Outflows Keep a Cautious Tone Around Bitcoin

Despite bitcoin’s intraday recovery, spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds continued to show modest selling pressure. The products recorded $9.3 million in net outflows, marking a second consecutive day of net selling. That figure was far smaller than Tuesday’s $239 million outflow, but it still signaled that institutional demand remained uneven as bitcoin attempted to stabilize.

ETF flows have become a closely watched barometer for bitcoin sentiment because they offer a window into regulated spot demand. A small outflow does not necessarily indicate broad bearishness, especially when compared with the larger selling recorded earlier in the week. Still, consecutive daily withdrawals can weigh on market psychology, particularly when price action is already struggling to regain lost weekly momentum.

For now, bitcoin’s setup appears more constructive than it did during the prior session, but not decisively bullish. Market participants are watching whether the softer dollar can continue to cushion the market and whether ETF demand improves after back-to-back days of net selling. Without a stronger inflow backdrop, bitcoin’s recovery may remain vulnerable to renewed selling if macro conditions turn less favorable.

Robinhood Chain Narrative Powers PONS and ARB

The strongest action in crypto came from tokens tied to the Robinhood Chain revenue theme. PONS led the altcoin market on Thursday, rising 30.85% over 24 hours to 50 cents. The token’s weekly performance was even more striking, with PONS up 318.72% over the week as traders continued to focus on its connection to Robinhood Chain economics.

PONS has drawn attention because the launchpad is the largest revenue generator on Robinhood Chain and routes around 80% of protocol revenue into buying back and burning its own token. That mechanism gives the token a more direct value accrual structure than many assets trading around the same theme. In market terms, buyback-and-burn models can be attractive to traders because they may reduce circulating supply over time while tying token demand to protocol activity. The degree to which that translates into sustainable price support still depends on revenue durability and broader market appetite.

Arbitrum also extended its run, rising 16.77% over 24 hours to 13 cents. The move marked ARB’s third consecutive session of gains and pushed its market capitalization past $916 million. Trading activity remained elevated, with daily volume at $486 million, more than nine times last week’s daily total when volume averaged around $50 million per day. The sharp increase in volume showed that the ARB move was not occurring in isolation, but was being accompanied by a significant expansion in market participation.

Derivatives Data Shows ARB Momentum, But LIT Looks Different

Derivatives positioning reinforced the strength behind ARB. Open interest in Arbitrum increased nearly 10% to 1.58 billion ARB, the highest level on record. Rising open interest alongside rising price often suggests that new capital is entering the market rather than existing traders simply closing positions. For technical traders, that can be a supportive signal, although it also means positioning can become crowded if the rally extends too quickly.

The broader derivatives profile for ARB remained constructive, with the 24-hour open interest-adjusted cumulative volume delta and annualized perpetual funding rates both positive. Positive cumulative volume delta suggests more aggressive buying than selling, while positive funding tends to show that long positioning is willing to pay to maintain exposure. Together, those measures indicated that bullish traders remained active in ARB futures.

LIT, however, presented a more complicated picture. The Lighter DEX token was among the strongest performers of the past 24 hours, with spot price trading at a record $2.85 in derivatives commentary, while token market snapshots also showed LIT catching a bid and rising 3.13% to $3.92. The key issue was participation in futures. Open interest continued to drop even as price rose, suggesting the advance may have been driven largely by spot demand or could be vulnerable if the absence of a derivatives bid becomes more important.

Crypto Futures Sentiment Moves Back Toward Balance

Across crypto futures, sentiment moved into a more neutral position. The 24-hour long-short taker volume ratio stood in balance, a shift from the bearish tone seen a day earlier. Cumulative open interest remained in stasis near $136 billion, while trading volume declined 7% to $187 billion. The data pointed to a market that was stabilizing rather than aggressively adding leverage across the board.

Bitcoin and ether futures positioning remained light, with open interest hovering near recently reached multi-week lows. That lighter positioning can reduce the risk of forced liquidation cascades, but it may also show that traders are waiting for stronger confirmation before committing aggressively to directional bets. In the near term, that leaves spot price action and macro signals especially important.

Even so, bulls appeared to be leading price action in futures tied to major tokens, including bitcoin and ether. Positive 24-hour open interest-adjusted cumulative volume deltas indicated that more long positions were being executed through market orders rather than passive limit orders. For traders expecting further upside, that is generally seen as a constructive signal because it reflects active demand rather than passive accumulation alone.

Options Market Remains Calm but Leans Bullish for Bitcoin

Volatility signals were relatively calm. Bitcoin’s and ether’s 30-day implied volatility indices remained subdued, suggesting limited fear in the options market. Lower implied volatility can indicate that traders are not aggressively bidding for protection, which may support spot markets if broader conditions remain stable.

Bitcoin options flow still showed a bullish tilt. On Deribit-listed contracts, higher-strike calls at $82,000 and $84,000 continued to rank among the most active over the 24-hour period. Call options at strikes above spot prices are often associated with expectations for further upside, although they may also be used in more complex hedging or spread strategies.

At the same time, bitcoin’s seven-day skew, which measures the pricing difference between calls and puts, pulled back from recent highs. That moderation suggests bullishness was still present, but less one-sided than before. Ether options flow was more mixed, indicating that traders were less aligned on the near-term direction for the second-largest cryptocurrency.

UNI Slides While XMR, PUMP and TAO Trade Higher

Not every major token participated in the rally. Uniswap reversed sharply, falling 8.62% over 24 hours to $5.75 and ranking as the day’s biggest large-cap loser. The drop came after UNI had been one of the stronger DeFi performers during the broader rally. Even with Thursday’s pullback, the token still held a 29.11% gain over the past week, underscoring how quickly short-term leadership can rotate in crypto markets.

Privacy coin monero extended its strong run, rising 4.30% since midnight to around $515. Pump.fun also moved higher, gaining 4.96% to $0.004296, while LIT increased 3.13% to $3.92. Bittensor gained 2.33% since midnight to $222.31, though it remained below the $247 level seen a week ago.

TRX futures positioning also became less stretched. The token’s annualized perpetual funding rate hovered around negative 23%, compared with negative 80% earlier in the week. The overall bias remained bearish, but the easing in short positioning reduced the risk of a sudden short squeeze that can occur when bearish bets become overcrowded.

Market Outlook Hinges on Dollar Direction and Follow-Through

The near-term crypto outlook remains tied to whether Thursday’s recovery can attract follow-through. Bitcoin’s bounce was helped by a weaker dollar and broader risk-on tone, but ETF outflows and light futures positioning showed that traders had not fully returned to aggressive risk taking. For bitcoin, reclaiming momentum may require stronger spot demand, more durable ETF inflows, or continued macro support.

Altcoins remain more fragmented. PONS and ARB are benefiting from a concentrated Robinhood Chain revenue narrative, and ARB’s record open interest suggests that derivatives traders are actively involved. LIT’s move appears less confirmed by futures activity, while UNI’s reversal highlights the risk of sharp rotations after large weekly gains. For market participants, the session reinforced a familiar crypto pattern: macro liquidity can lift the overall tide, but token-specific catalysts continue to determine where the strongest moves occur.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Why did bitcoin rise on Thursday morning?

Bitcoin rose as the dollar weakened and broader risk assets improved. The cryptocurrency traded around $77,890, up 0.76% since midnight UTC, while metals and U.S. equity futures also moved higher.

Is bitcoin still down for the week?

Yes. Even after recovering part of Wednesday’s decline, bitcoin remained down 2.89% over the past week, showing that the rebound had not fully reversed recent weakness.

What happened with spot bitcoin ETFs?

Spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $9.3 million in net outflows, marking a second consecutive day of net selling. The outflow was much smaller than Tuesday’s $239 million, but it still kept a cautious tone around institutional demand.

Why is PONS rallying?

PONS is rallying as traders focus on its role as the largest revenue generator on Robinhood Chain. The protocol routes around 80% of its revenue into buying back and burning its own token, which has attracted attention from market participants.

How strong was ARB’s move?

ARB rose 16.77% over 24 hours to 13 cents, extending gains for a third consecutive session. Its market capitalization moved past $916 million, and daily trading volume reached $486 million.

What does record ARB open interest mean?

ARB open interest increased nearly 10% to 1.58 billion ARB, the highest on record. Rising open interest alongside price gains can suggest new capital is entering the trade, although it can also raise the risk of crowded positioning.

Are crypto derivatives traders bullish or bearish?

Overall futures sentiment moved toward neutral, with the 24-hour long-short taker volume ratio in balance. However, positive volume delta readings in major token futures suggested bulls were still leading parts of the market.

Why did UNI fall while other altcoins rose?

UNI fell 8.62% over 24 hours to $5.75 after previously ranking among the stronger DeFi performers. Despite the pullback, it still held a 29.11% gain over the past week.

What are bitcoin options traders watching?

Bitcoin options traders remained active in higher-strike calls at $82,000 and $84,000, indicating a bullish tilt. However, bitcoin’s seven-day skew pulled back from recent highs, suggesting that bullish demand was less extreme than before.

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