Aramco

Gold, oil and the USD Index are entering a decisive stretch as technical signals, month-end behavior and Federal Reserve messaging converge. Energy traders are also weighing severe Strait of Hormuz disruption risks against a recent oil pullback tied to a bombing pause and negotiations.

Gold, oil and the USD Index are moving through a tense stretch where technical signals are clashing with headline-driven narratives. Market participants are watching the Federal Reserve, Strait of Hormuz developments and month-end dollar behavior for signs of the next major turn.

WTI and Brent begin the week with traders focused on whether supply risk around Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb and Saudi export infrastructure can keep the crude rally alive. Alternative barrels are getting more expensive as refiners chase supplies outside the Middle East while diplomacy competes with continued military escalation.