Forward Guidance

The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark fed funds rate range unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, extending its pause for a sixth consecutive meeting. Bitcoin rose above $64,400 after the decision, while stock indexes trimmed losses and gold advanced as investors turned to Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference for policy signals.

Bitcoin enters the July 29, 2026 Federal Reserve decision facing an unusually unsettled macro backdrop. Traders are watching whether policymakers deliver a surprise rate increase, lean hawkish, or downplay inflation risks despite rising oil prices and firming bond yields.

Citadel is preparing for a surprise Federal Reserve rate hike on Wednesday even as much of the market expects no change. The contrarian call has sharpened focus on Treasury yields, bitcoin’s pullback and the Fed’s use of forward guidance.