Japanese Bond Yields

A coordinated U.S.-Japan move pushed the yen sharply higher after USD/JPY nearly reached 164, reviving memories of bitcoin’s August 2024 sell-off. Yet BTC’s recent relationship with USD/JPY suggests broad U.S. dollar strength, not a classic yen carry trade unwind, may be the more important pressure point.

The Bank of Japan may keep interest rates at 1% in July, but market participants are still watching for a possible move to 1.25% later this year. Yen weakness, rising producer prices and oil above $90 are keeping inflation risks firmly on the policy radar.