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The S&P 500 and Nasdaq, when priced in bitcoin, have moved above their 200-week moving averages for the first time since 2012. The shift is prompting market participants to reassess whether bitcoin’s era of extreme outperformance versus equities is maturing into a slower, more institutional phase.

Bitcoin’s four-year halving pattern continues to shape market expectations, but past cycle data shows each major peak has delivered a smaller multiple than the last. With the next cycle peak expected in 2029, some market participants say calls for $300,000 to $500,000 may require a sharp break from the trend of maturing returns.