Bitcoin Holds Above $90K as Markets Brace for Volatility | Crypto Shift Daily Outlook

This is Crypto Shift Daily Outlook, your essential morning read for daily developments in the crypto world. Published every weekday before the markets open, it offers a fast, curated look at key overnight moves, upcoming catalysts, and the broader sentiment driving digital assets. If you track Bitcoin, altcoins, or crypto policy, this briefing helps you stay one step ahead.

What to Know

• Bitcoin is holding above $90,000 after touching oversold conditions, while major altcoins remain mostly flat and XRP trades slightly lower.
• Traders assign a roughly 30% chance that BTC will reclaim $100,000 by year-end, while there is a 50% chance it ends below $90,000.
• Rising volatility, a cautious derivatives market, and macro uncertainty continue to shape short-term price action.
• Nvidia earnings, FOMC minutes, and delayed payrolls data could trigger significant volatility across crypto and equities.
• Altcoin rotation is firming slowly, with ETH/BTC testing the upper boundary of a three-month descending channel.
• Liquidity conditions, funding rates, and ETF outflows point to persistent caution among institutional participants.

Bitcoin (BTC) continues to defend the $90,000 level despite elevated volatility, extreme fear sentiment, and traders positioning for wider swings into year-end. While bargain-hunting whales accumulate and oversold signals hint at relief potential, macro pressure, rising volatility indices, and cautious derivatives positioning are restricting upside. As the market prepares for major catalysts such as Nvidia earnings and Federal Reserve minutes, risk sentiment remains fragile and direction could shift rapidly.

Crypto Markets Hold Steady Above Crucial Levels as Traders Eye Year-End Scenarios

Bitcoin maintained stability above the $90,000 mark over the past 24 hours, an area that continues to act as a psychological anchor for traders assessing whether the most recent selloff has run its course. Technical indicators such as RSI flagged oversold conditions earlier in the week, and the modest stabilization since then has helped restore some confidence, even as broader sentiment remains deeply entrenched in the fear zone. Altcoins are mostly mixed, with small upside among SOL, ETH, BNB, and TRX, while XRP lags slightly after a modest pullback. More speculative tokens like CRO and HASH have shown comparatively stronger momentum, each recording gains of around 4% in early trading.

Whale accumulation has begun to reappear at lower levels, suggesting that longer-term buyers are stepping in cautiously. The dynamics resemble previous periods where deep fear readings preceded short, sharp reversals. Yet the broader backdrop remains heavily dependent on macro flows, with traders still assessing the probability of a Federal Reserve shift and gauging the durability of the U.S. economic slowdown. Treasury options are already reflecting expectations of a more dovish tilt, which would generally support risk assets, including crypto.

This period of hesitation is being echoed in derivatives markets. Options traders are split on Bitcoin’s year-end direction: the probability of BTC reclaiming $100,000 sits near 30%, while the probability of ending below $90,000 is close to 50%. Ether’s options pricing shows a 50% chance of slipping under $2,900 and only a slim 15% chance of climbing above $4,000 before year-end.

Derivatives Markets Show Cautious Positioning Despite Technical Stability

Options markets provide one of the clearest windows into sentiment, and current pricing shows traders remain cautious into the final weeks of the year. Activity on decentralized derivatives platforms indicates a 30% chance that bitcoin returns to $100,000 by December 31, a target that was widely expected earlier in the fall but has since become far more uncertain. Derivatives positioning also reflects increased demand for downside protection, with a 50% chance assigned to BTC finishing below $90,000. Ether shows similar caution, with options markets pricing a 50% probability of ETH slipping below $2,900 and only a 15% chance of a move above $4,000.

These distributions illustrate a market that is still bracing for volatility. Macro headwinds, geopolitical uncertainties, and the broader unwind from the summer rally continue to weigh on sentiment. At the same time, volatility gauges are rising quickly. The bitcoin implied volatility index has reached its highest level since the early-October crash, signaling expectations of larger price swings. Traditional markets are echoing this trend: the VIX has surged past 22%, a level rarely seen in recent months, suggesting heightened uncertainty across equities as well.

Major Catalysts Ahead: Nvidia Earnings and Federal Reserve Minutes

Attention now shifts to Nvidia’s highly anticipated quarterly earnings report, a critical event given the company’s role in the AI boom and its impact on both tech markets and broader investor sentiment. Nvidia results have repeatedly served as a barometer for risk appetite this year, with outsized influence over indices like the Nasdaq and S&P 500. A stronger-than-expected report could spark renewed optimism across both equities and digital assets, while a miss could fuel risk-off flows.

In addition to earnings, markets are awaiting the release of Federal Reserve meeting minutes, which may offer clearer signals on the pace of future policy adjustments. Traders are also preparing for the delayed U.S. payrolls report, which could influence interest rate expectations and liquidity conditions across global markets.

Altcoins and Technical Picture: ETH/BTC Tests Key Breakout Zone

Altcoin performance remains uneven, but the ETH/BTC ratio is positioned at a crucial technical level. The pair is testing the upper boundary of a descending channel that has contained price action for nearly three months. A confirmed breakout would signal relative strength in Ethereum, potentially triggering a rotation into ETH and related assets. For now, the structure remains unresolved, with traders watching closely for follow-through momentum.

On a market-wide level, liquidity remains thin across most altcoins, and ETF flows show continued outflows in both bitcoin and ether products. Funding rates have normalized but still reflect cautious leverage profiles on major exchanges.

Volatility Signals Are Rising

Both crypto and traditional volatility gauges are climbing simultaneously — something that hasn’t happened often this year and usually precedes sharp market moves.

On the crypto side, bitcoin’s implied volatility index has pushed to its highest point since the October crash. In equities, Wall Street’s VIX has broken above 22% again, a level rarely reached since May. The synchronized volatility spike points to widespread uncertainty ahead of major events, especially as the market awaits:

• Nvidia’s quarterly earnings
• The Federal Reserve’s October meeting minutes
• The delayed U.S. payrolls report

These events could have a direct impact on risk assets, including crypto.

What to Watch

Crypto Events Today

Firo (FIRO) – Hard fork network upgrade
Avalanche (AVAX) – Granite mainnet upgrade at 11 a.m. ET

Macro Events

2 p.m. ET – Federal Reserve meeting minutes
Nvidia (NVDA) reports earnings after the close

Earnings Estimates

• Bullish (BLSH) – Expected earnings: $0.10
• Nvidia (NVDA) – Expected earnings: $1.25

Token Events

Governance Calls

W to host a community call on ecosystem updates at 12 p.m.

Unlocks

None scheduled for today.

Token Listings

• Datagram Network (DGRAM) — Phemex (DGRAM/USDT)
• GAIB (GAIB) — Bitget (GAIB/USDT)
• Play Solana Token (PLAY) — BTSE (PLAYSOLANA/USDT)

Conference Calendar

• Digital Assets: Compliance, Enforcement & Oversight (New York) – Day 2
• MoneyLIVE Payments Europe (Amsterdam) – Day 1
• Fintech NerdCon 2025 (Miami) – Day 1

Market Movements

Crypto

• BTC: $91,491.64 (24h: -0.16%)
• ETH: $3,085.65 (24h: -0.9%)

Commodities & FX

• DXY: 99.75 (+0.20%)
• Gold: $4,113.10 (+1.15%)
• Silver: $52.10 (+3.14%)

Read more: Gold and Silver Forecast | Precious Metals Hold Key Support Levels Amid High Volatility

Equities

• DJIA: 46,091.74 (-1.07%)
• S&P 500: 6,617.32 (-0.83%)
• Nasdaq: 22,432.85 (-1.21%)

Futures

• E-mini S&P 500: +0.27%
• E-mini Nasdaq-100: +0.32%
• E-mini Dow: +0.11%

Bitcoin Stats

BTC Dominance: 58.91%
ETH/BTC Ratio: 0.03384
Hashrate (7-day average): 1,079 EH/s
Hashprice: $37.95
Total Fees: 3.73 BTC
CME Open Interest: 135,535 BTC

Read more: Bitcoin Hashprice Falls to Five-Year Low as Miner Revenues Tighten

Technical Analysis

ETH/BTC continues pressing against the upper boundary of a multi-month descending channel. A breakout would signal Ethereum outperformance, especially if Bitcoin volatility continues rising. Traders are watching this closely as the ratio approaches a decisive technical area.

Crypto-Related Equities

• Coinbase (COIN): $261.79
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): $25.58
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): $13.94
• CleanSpark (CLSK): $10.81
• Core Scientific (CORZ): $15.43

Crypto Treasury Holdings

• MicroStrategy (MSTR): $206.8
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): $21.51
• SharpLink Gaming (SBET): $10.55

ETF Flows

Spot Bitcoin ETFs

Daily Flows: –$372.8M
Cumulative Flows: $58.21B
Total BTC Held: ~1.32M

Spot Ethereum ETFs

Daily Flows: –$74.2M
Cumulative Flows: $12.89B
Total ETH Held: ~6.28M

While You Were Sleeping

Risk positioning in Bitcoin derivatives has reversed sharply, with traders rotating from calls to puts as downside hedging picks up into year-end. Meanwhile, Hyperliquid announced major fee reductions through HIP-3, a growth-focused upgrade designed to expand trading markets. Globally, rising bond yields in Japan and large ETF outflows in the U.S. are contributing to a risk-off tone across markets.

Final Takeaway

The crypto market enters the day in a fragile but stabilizing position. With Bitcoin holding key levels and volatility building across markets, today’s macro catalysts could determine the next major move. Traders should stay alert, especially heading into earnings and Fed minutes.

Q&A: What Traders Are Asking Today

Will Bitcoin reclaim $100,000 before year-end?

Options markets assign around a 30% probability, meaning sentiment is cautious but not dismissive. A favorable macro backdrop, strong Nvidia earnings, or renewed ETF inflows could improve odds.

Is the market nearing a bottom?

Oversold conditions and renewed whale buying suggest temporary relief, but the overall trend remains vulnerable to macro data and volatility spikes.

Is ETH preparing for a breakout against BTC?

The ETH/BTC ratio is testing a major channel boundary. A breakout would indicate Ethereum strength into December, but confirmation is still required.

What could trigger the next big move?

Nvidia earnings, the Federal Reserve minutes, and U.S. payroll data are the primary catalysts expected to shape near-term direction this week.

When do the new rules take effect?

The regulations take effect on February 2, and existing firms have nine months from that date to comply.

How much capital must crypto firms hold?

Firms must maintain between 10.8 million and 37.2 million reais ($2–7 million), depending on their size and operational scope.

Do the rules apply to international companies?

Yes. Any foreign company serving Brazilian clients must establish a local legal entity and comply with Brazilian regulations.

Which transactions fall under the new framework?

All cross-border crypto transfers, stablecoin operations, self-custody wallet movements, and crypto-fiat exchanges are included.

What happens to firms that don’t comply?

They risk losing their license or being barred from operating in the Brazilian market.