Bitcoin Price Forecast | 3 Key Levels That Could Decide BTC’s Next Move

Bitcoin (BTC) entered the new week under heavy selling pressure, briefly dropping below $112,000 before regaining some ground. Analysts now point to three critical price levels that could make or break the cryptocurrency’s short-term direction as volatility returns to the market.

What to Know

• Bitcoin slid to $111,717 before recovering to $112,600, down 1.7% on the day.
• Analysts highlight $112,000, $111,400, and $110,000 as the most important support levels.
• Swissblock’s Bitcoin Risk Index signals stable sentiment, despite recent declines.
• Glassnode warns that trading below the short-term holder cost basis could trigger further selling.

Bitcoin Sell-Off Intensifies

Bitcoin’s decline over the past 24 hours has caught the attention of traders, with prices briefly slipping under $112,000 before bouncing back. The sell-off, though relatively moderate, has reignited concerns about whether BTC can maintain its bullish momentum or if a deeper correction is on the horizon.

Swissblock Technologies identified $112,000 as the first line of defense for bulls. “As long as $112,000 holds and the Risk stays stable, BTC can rebuild strength,” the firm noted on X.

Swissblock’s Risk Index Suggests Optimism

The company’s Bitcoin Risk Index, which combines on-chain valuation and cost-basis data, helps measure market risk appetite. A higher reading signals increased volatility and risk aversion, while lower or stable levels suggest confidence among buyers.

On Monday, the index hovered near zero, pointing to resilient sentiment despite the day’s price drop. This indicates that traders are still holding a positive outlook, provided that key support levels remain intact.

$110,000 Remains the Lifeline Support

Beyond $112,000, Swissblock pointed to $110,000 as a critical “lifeline” support zone. Historical price action between December and January showed that bulls struggled to keep Bitcoin above this level, making it a zone worth monitoring closely in the coming days.

If BTC falls below $110,000, it could mark a breakdown in structure and open the door to further losses.

The Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $111,400

Another crucial price reference comes from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, which tracks the short-term holder cost basis (STH-CB)—the average price at which wallets purchased Bitcoin in the past 155 days.

Currently sitting at $111,400, this level is often seen as a battleground between bulls and bears.

• When BTC trades above it, buyers are generally in profit, fueling bullish conviction.
• A sustained break below this level, however, could signal mounting selling pressure and a possible shift toward a more bearish market outlook.

Glassnode warned on X: “Sustained trading below this level could signal a shift toward a mid- to long-term bearish market structure.”

Outlook Ahead

Together, the three levels—$110,000, $111,400, and $112,000—create a tight support zone that will likely define Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory. If bulls manage to defend this area, BTC could regain momentum. But if these supports fail, the market may be preparing for a deeper pullback.

For more daily forecasts and expert analysis on Bitcoin price trends, including short-term movements, long-term outlooks, and market drivers, visit our Forecasts section and stay ahead of market trends.

Q&A

Why is $112,000 such an important level for Bitcoin?

Because it represents the first major support identified by analysts. Holding this level could allow Bitcoin to rebuild strength and prevent further declines.

What is the Bitcoin Risk Index?

It’s a proprietary indicator from Swissblock Technologies that measures volatility and investor sentiment by combining on-chain valuation with cost-basis data.

Why is $111,400 important?

It marks the short-term holder cost basis. Staying above it shows strong market conviction, while trading below it could signal bearish sentiment.

What happens if Bitcoin falls below $110,000?

This is considered the “lifeline support.” A breakdown below $110,000 could trigger further selling pressure and confirm a bearish market structure.

For more daily forecasts and expert analysis on Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies, visit our Forecasts section and gain insights into the next market trends.