What to Know

  • December E mini Nasdaq 100 Index futures are trading sharply higher in a rebound rally, but the main trend remains down on the daily swing chart.
  • A move through 29053.00 would reaffirm the downtrend, while a move through the record high at 31616.50 would turn the main trend up.
  • The minor trend is also down, though a trade through 30225.00 would shift the minor trend higher and point momentum to the upside.
  • The long term retracement zone at 29555.25 to 29068.75 was successfully tested early in the session at 29226.00.
  • The first upside target zone is 30032.25 to 30334.75, followed by the key target area at 30421.25 to 30703.25.
  • The 50 day moving average at 30175.22 is controlling momentum and may act as resistance while futures trade below it.
  • CoreWeave rose about 6% after Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock, following a 25% decline last week.
  • Credit default swaps on CoreWeave reached distress levels during the selloff, leaving its debt profile central to the AI trade.
  • Meta Platforms and Tesla report this week, placing earnings in the spotlight after elevated put activity on Friday.

Nasdaq 100 Futures Rebound, But the Broader Trend Still Points Lower

December E mini Nasdaq 100 Index futures are staging a sharp rebound, giving technology bulls some relief after a difficult stretch for artificial intelligence linked shares and high growth names. The move is being driven by renewed buying interest in chip stocks, helped by a favorable Intel call that has encouraged traders to revisit areas of the market that were hit hard last week.

Even so, the technical backdrop remains cautious. The main trend is still down on the daily swing chart, which means the current advance is best viewed as a rebound inside a broader corrective structure rather than a confirmed trend reversal. For that view to change, futures would need to clear the record high at 31616.50. Until then, sellers may continue to treat rallies as opportunities to reduce exposure or rebuild short positions.

The downside marker is also clear. A trade through 29053.00 would reaffirm the main downtrend and signal that last week’s selling pressure has not fully run its course. That level sits close to the lower side of the broader retracement area that buyers defended early in the session, making it an important reference point for both directional traders and short term risk managers.

Key Technical Zones Define the Rebound

The early session test at 29226.00 was important because it confirmed demand inside the long term retracement zone stretching from 29555.25 to 29068.75. Buyers responding in that area helped stabilize the contract and created the foundation for the current rebound. In market structure terms, that zone has become the first major support band to monitor if volatility returns.

On the upside, the intermediate retracement zone at 30032.25 to 30334.75 is the first target area. If the rebound continues, technical traders are likely to watch how price behaves there. A decisive push through that band would show that buyers are regaining control in the near term, while hesitation or rejection could suggest that the bounce is running into supply.

The short term retracement zone from 30421.25 to 30703.25 is the more important resistance area if momentum strengthens further. This zone is viewed by some chart watchers as a possible area where sellers could reemerge and attempt to form a secondary lower top. If that happens, the broader downtrend would remain intact and the rebound could lose force quickly.

The 50 day moving average at 30175.22 adds another layer of resistance. Since the index is currently trading on the weak side of that indicator, it remains a key momentum barrier. A move above it would not automatically end the bearish structure, but it would improve the near term tone. Failure near that average would keep the market vulnerable to renewed selling.

Intel Upgrade Brings Buyers Back to Chip Stocks

The Intel upgrade has helped revive interest in semiconductor names, a group that has been central to both the Nasdaq 100 rally and the recent correction. Chip stocks have become a focal point for the artificial intelligence investment theme, and any shift in sentiment toward the group can have an outsized effect on index futures.

AMD and Micron joined the move, reflecting a broader rebound in shares that absorbed pressure last week. The first wave of buying has appeared in names that were recently marked down, suggesting that some market participants are looking for value after the pullback rather than chasing fresh highs. That type of buying can fuel sharp counter trend rallies, particularly when positioning has become defensive.

Still, renewed demand for chip stocks does not remove the market’s larger concerns. The AI trade has increasingly shifted from enthusiasm about revenue growth to questions about spending, balance sheets, financing needs, and the sustainability of capital intensive infrastructure buildouts. That is why the Nasdaq rebound is being watched closely rather than celebrated as a clean return to risk appetite.

CoreWeave Recovery Keeps AI Debt Concerns in Focus

CoreWeave was up about 6% after Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock, a move that helped stabilize sentiment around one of the more closely watched AI infrastructure names. The rebound follows a difficult week in which the stock fell 25%, marking its largest weekly decline since November 2025. That decline left traders focused not only on the stock price but also on the company’s credit profile.

Credit default swaps on CoreWeave reached distress levels during the selloff. That detail matters because it shows that concern extended beyond equity volatility and into the debt market. For an AI infrastructure company tied to heavy capital spending, debt pricing can become a major driver of investor confidence.

The stock’s recovery on Monday suggests that some investors are willing to step back in after the drop, especially after an upgrade from a major Wall Street firm. However, the debt trade remains in front of the market. If credit stress remains visible, equity rallies may struggle to gain broad conviction. If credit conditions stabilize, the stock could become a stronger support for the AI infrastructure theme.

Earnings Must Carry the Next Phase

The rebound now faces a major test from earnings. Meta Platforms and Tesla report this week, and their results may help determine whether the Nasdaq 100 can extend its recovery or whether sellers regain control. In a market shaped by AI expectations, capital spending plans, and valuation questions, earnings commentary may matter as much as headline results.

Friday’s put volume was the second highest of the year, according to Goldman, signaling elevated demand for downside protection. That defensive positioning can amplify short term moves in either direction. If earnings reassure investors, hedges may be reduced and help fuel further upside. If results disappoint or guidance raises spending concerns, those hedges may prove justified and pressure could return quickly.

Anthropic posted 16.8 billion in third quarter revenue after reporting 11.6 billion in the second quarter. While that kind of growth supports the broader AI demand narrative, traders had already moved to the spending side of the AI trade last week. In other words, strong top line expansion is no longer the only question. Investors also want to know how much capital is required, who is financing it, and whether returns can justify the scale of investment.

Broader Stock Moves Show Selective Risk Appetite

Amazon was also higher after Morgan Stanley named the stock a top pick and raised its price target. That move contributed to the improved tone across large technology and growth shares. Datadog gained after a Bernstein upgrade, adding to the sense that analyst support is helping bring buyers back to selected names.

Cleveland Cliffs rose more than 10% after topping third quarter earnings estimates, showing that the day’s strength was not limited to mega cap technology. Still, the Nasdaq 100 remains especially sensitive to the performance of chip, cloud, and AI infrastructure shares because those groups have carried much of the market narrative.

Monday’s screen is greener than last week’s, but the recovery is still selective. Stocks that were punished most heavily are receiving the first bids back, which is common after a sharp risk reduction phase. The key question is whether this buying develops into sustained accumulation or merely reflects a short term rebound from oversold conditions.

Nasdaq 100 Forecast: Resistance May Decide the Next Move

For December E mini Nasdaq 100 Index futures, the near term bias remains to the downside while the main trend is down and the contract trades on the weak side of the 50 day moving average. The successful test of the retracement zone at 29555.25 to 29068.75 is constructive, but it does not yet reverse the larger trend.

Counter trend momentum could carry futures into 30032.25 to 30334.75. If buyers clear that area, attention would shift to 30421.25 to 30703.25. Those zones are likely to determine whether the rebound can broaden or whether sellers return to defend the downtrend.

If sellers reemerge in those resistance areas and form a secondary lower top, the downtrend would likely resume. In that case, traders would again focus on the 29555.25 to 29068.75 support band, followed by 29053.00. A break through 29053.00 would reaffirm downside momentum and increase the risk of another leg lower.

If buyers can drive the contract above 30225.00, the minor trend would turn up and momentum would shift to the upside. That would improve the short term picture, particularly if price also holds above the 50 day moving average at 30175.22. However, the larger main trend would still require a move through 31616.50 to turn up.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Why are Nasdaq 100 futures rising?

December E mini Nasdaq 100 futures are rising in a rebound rally as buyers return to chip stocks and other technology names that were hit during last week’s selloff. An Intel upgrade helped improve sentiment across semiconductors.

Is the Nasdaq 100 trend bullish now?

Not yet. The main trend remains down on the daily swing chart. A move through 31616.50 would be needed to change the main trend to up, while a move through 29053.00 would reaffirm the downtrend.

What level would shift short term momentum higher?

A trade through 30225.00 would change the minor trend to up and shift momentum to the upside. Traders are also watching the 50 day moving average at 30175.22 as a key momentum barrier.

What are the key Nasdaq 100 resistance zones?

The first target zone is 30032.25 to 30334.75. If the rebound extends, the next key target area is 30421.25 to 30703.25, where sellers could attempt to form a secondary lower top.

Why does CoreWeave matter to the AI trade?

CoreWeave is closely tied to the AI infrastructure theme. Its stock rose about 6% after an upgrade, but its recent 25% weekly decline and distress level credit default swaps have kept debt risk in focus.

Which earnings reports are important this week?

Meta Platforms and Tesla report this week. Their results and commentary may influence whether the Nasdaq 100 rebound continues or whether concerns around AI spending and valuation return to the forefront.

What did Friday’s put volume signal?

Friday’s put volume was the second highest of the year, according to Goldman. That suggests traders were actively seeking downside protection before the rebound, making positioning an important factor for near term price action.

What support zone matters most for Nasdaq 100 futures?

The long term retracement zone from 29555.25 to 29068.75 is the key support band after it was successfully tested at 29226.00. A break below 29053.00 would reaffirm the main downtrend.

Could the rebound still fail?

Yes. If futures stall near 30032.25 to 30334.75 or 30421.25 to 30703.25, sellers could reemerge and attempt to resume the downtrend. The rebound remains vulnerable while price trades below major resistance and the main trend stays down.