Natural Gas and Oil Forecast | Channel Support Holds as OPEC+ Decision Looms

What to Know

• WTI crude oil dipped to $65 as Kurdish exports resumed, adding up to 190,000 barrels per day.
• OPEC+ is preparing for a 137,000 bpd output hike, raising oversupply concerns.
• Natural gas trades near $3.16, capped by a descending trendline with bearish momentum signals.
• Key support levels: $3.12 for natural gas and $64.90 for WTI crude.
• Resistance zones: $3.20–3.25 for natural gas and $66.40 for WTI crude.

Energy markets are at a critical juncture as traders weigh fresh supply from Kurdish exports, an upcoming OPEC+ output decision, and technical setups in both natural gas and crude oil. While prices are holding above key supports, momentum signals suggest the next breakout will depend on whether bulls or bears seize control in the days ahead.

Market Overview

WTI crude slipped 1% to $65 per barrel after Kurdish oil exports resumed for the first time in more than two years, adding an estimated 180,000–190,000 barrels per day with scope to expand toward 230,000 bpd. This new supply comes just as OPEC+ prepares to approve an additional 137,000 bpd production increase, raising concerns over oversupply.

Geopolitical risks remain a balancing factor, particularly regarding Russian energy flows, keeping traders cautious about sudden disruptions despite the supply growth.

Natural gas markets are showing similar hesitation, caught between weak technical momentum and external shocks that could still upset the balance.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural gas is struggling below a descending trendline that has capped rallies since mid-September. Prices are hovering near $3.16, sandwiched between support at $3.12 and resistance at $3.19.

• Immediate resistance: $3.18 (50-EMA) and $3.20 (200-EMA).
• Support levels: $3.12 and $3.06.
• RSI: 41, signaling weak momentum and a bearish tilt.

A breakout above $3.20–$3.25 could trigger a recovery toward $3.29–$3.35, while rejection at resistance risks a retest of $3.12 or deeper toward $3.06.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude is consolidating within an ascending channel, trading just above $65.00 after retreating from $66.38.

• Key support: $65.00 and $64.90.
• Upside targets: $67.30–$68.20 if $66.40 breaks.
• RSI: 51, showing neutral momentum.

The structure remains constructive as long as price respects channel support, though momentum has cooled. Traders should monitor candlestick patterns at the midline for early signs of direction.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude has stabilized after pulling back from $69.90, with prices consolidating inside a rising channel.

• Support: $68.30, $67.70, and the 200-EMA at $67.83.
• Resistance: $69.30–$69.90 zone, followed by $70.50.
• RSI: 52, suggesting room for either direction.

A push above $69.30 could pave the way for a retest of $69.90 and eventually $70.50, while a break below $68.30 may open the door to a deeper correction.

Q&A

Why did WTI crude fall despite geopolitical risks?

Kurdish exports resuming added nearly 200,000 bpd to supply, easing tightness in the oil market just as OPEC+ prepares to hike output.

Is natural gas bearish or bullish right now?

Natural gas is technically weak under its descending trendline. Unless bulls can reclaim $3.20–$3.25, the bias leans bearish with risks of retesting $3.12 and $3.06.

What should traders watch in Brent crude?

The $69.30–$69.90 resistance zone is critical. A rejection could trigger a pullback, but a breakout above would likely accelerate momentum toward $70.50.

Could OPEC+ trigger a breakout?

Yes. The upcoming decision on production increases will be a key driver. A dovish stance (smaller hike) could support prices, while aggressive supply growth risks renewed downside.

For more daily forecasts and expert analysis on natural gas and oil markets, including price action, trend analysis, and key supply-demand factors, visit our Forecasts section and stay ahead of market trends.