Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Geopolitical Tensions Drive Oil Toward $65, Gas Eyes $4

What to Know

• WTI crude climbs toward $64 amid rising geopolitical concerns in the Middle East.
• Natural gas holds above $3.85 after a rapid recovery from sub-$2 levels.
• Improving global risk appetite supports commodities, but volatility remains elevated.
• Key shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz are under scrutiny for supply disruptions.
• Traders await US inflation and economic data to gauge the next directional move for energy markets.

Macro Overview: Geopolitics and the Dollar Set the Stage

Energy markets have been responding sharply to recent geopolitical developments. Tensions in the Middle East, particularly around shipping lanes such as the Strait of Hormuz, have injected a fresh risk premium into oil prices. This region remains critical, as it channels roughly a third of global oil production and a significant share of LNG shipments. Even minor disruptions could trigger rapid market reactions.

Meanwhile, the US dollar has weakened to near a four-year low, boosting demand for dollar-priced commodities like crude oil and natural gas. A softer dollar makes energy assets more attractive for international buyers and adds upward momentum to prices, especially in the short term.

The combination of geopolitical uncertainty and currency dynamics is driving WTI toward the $64–$65 zone and giving natural gas the support it needs to hold above $3.85.

Natural Gas Outlook: $3.85 Holds as Trendline Offers Support

Natural gas has shown remarkable resilience after climbing sharply from below $2 earlier this month. The $3.85 area has emerged as a psychological and technical support level, with a rising trendline suggesting continued upside potential.

Short-term momentum remains steady, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) pointing to mild bullish conditions without overbought signals. Immediate resistance sits around $4.00–$4.10, corresponding to previous highs and Fibonacci extension levels. Traders looking for opportunities may watch for price reactions near $3.60 for potential entries, while downside protection appears near $3.40 if selling pressure intensifies.

Overall, natural gas is in a consolidation phase, but its upward trajectory remains intact as market participants weigh supply concerns and strong demand fundamentals.

WTI Crude Forecast: Approaching $65 Amid Risk Premium

WTI crude continues its recovery, trading near $64 per barrel, marking the third consecutive gain. Price action has formed a consistent upward channel, with higher highs and higher lows indicating that buyers remain firmly in control.

Key resistance is identified at $64.50–$65.20, aligning with channel tops and short-term Fibonacci extensions. Support lies near $63.40, with a secondary floor at $62.50, which has previously acted as a breakout level. The RSI above 60 confirms buyer strength, although momentum is showing signs of a moderate slowdown — normal for a market digesting a three-day rally.

A decisive break above $65 could open the door to $66–$67 levels, particularly if geopolitical tensions escalate or unexpected supply disruptions arise.

Brent Crude Forecast: UKOIL Targets $68.50 as Recovery Persists

Brent crude has mirrored WTI’s gains, trading in the $68.25–$68.50 range. After surpassing the previous $67.50 resistance, Brent has consolidated above this level, supported by a rising trendline from the $63.30 low.

Near-term technicals indicate bullish control, with the RSI hovering above 60 but not yet overextended. Immediate resistance comes into view around $68.60–$69.40, while support clusters near $67.00–$67.20. The trend remains upward as long as prices hold above these short-term floors, and buyers appear ready to defend these levels.

Risks to the Forecast

• Geopolitical escalation: Any sudden conflict in the Middle East could push oil prices beyond the current forecast range.

• US dollar strength: A rebound in the USD could temper commodity gains, particularly for oil and natural gas.

• Economic data surprises: US inflation or GDP figures could shift market expectations and influence short-term trends.

• Supply-demand shocks: Unexpected production changes from OPEC+, US shale, or LNG disruptions may accelerate price volatility.

Forecast Summary

• Natural Gas: Likely to trade in the $3.85–$4.10 range as support remains intact and upward momentum persists.
• WTI Crude: Approaching $65, with potential upside to $66–$67 if risk premium intensifies.
• Brent Crude: Testing $68.50, with bullish trends likely to continue while holding key support zones.

Energy markets are in a consolidation phase, digesting both geopolitical developments and macroeconomic signals. Traders should watch key technical levels and economic releases for clues on the next directional move.

Frequently Asked Questions (Q&A)

What is driving oil prices higher this week?

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a weaker US dollar have combined to add a risk premium, boosting WTI and Brent crude.

Why is natural gas holding above $3.85?

A strong rising trendline, technical support, and ongoing demand have allowed natural gas to maintain its upward trajectory after a sharp recovery from sub-$2 levels.

Could oil break above $65 soon?

Yes — if geopolitical risks intensify or unexpected supply disruptions occur, WTI crude could move beyond $65 toward $66–$67.

Why is the Middle East so important for oil prices?

The Middle East produces a significant portion of global oil supply and controls major shipping routes. Any threat to production facilities or transport corridors like the Strait of Hormuz can quickly tighten supply expectations, driving prices higher.

What is keeping natural gas prices elevated?

Natural gas is being supported by strong technical momentum following a major rebound, along with a rising trendline and stable RSI readings. The market is consolidating gains rather than showing signs of weakness.

How does the US dollar influence energy prices?

A weaker US dollar generally supports oil and gas prices by making dollar-denominated commodities more affordable for global buyers. Recent dollar weakness has been a key tailwind for energy markets.

Can natural gas realistically return to $4?

Yes, a move back toward $4.00–$4.10 is possible if prices continue to hold above the $3.55–$3.60 support zone. This area combines trendline support and moving average convergence. A clean break above $4.10 would strengthen the bullish case, while a drop below $3.40 would weaken it.

Why are geopolitical tensions impacting oil prices so strongly?

Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, raise concerns about potential supply disruptions. The region produces nearly a third of global oil, and key shipping routes such as the Strait of Hormuz are critical for oil and LNG exports. Any threat to these routes can quickly add a risk premium to prices, even without an actual supply cut.

What are the key levels to watch for Brent crude?

Support: $67.00–$67.20
Resistance: $68.60–$69.40
Holding above support maintains the bullish outlook, while a break below could signal short-term correction.

For more daily forecasts and in-depth analysis on crude oil, natural gas, and broader energy markets, visit our Commodities Forecasts section and stay ahead of market trends.