Natural Gas And Oil Forecast: Inventory Surge Caps Crude as Geneva Talks Add $10 Risk Premium,

What to Know

• WTI crude is consolidating above $65.20 support in a tightening triangle.
• A 16 million barrel U.S. inventory build far exceeded the 1.5 million forecast.
• Analysts estimate roughly a $10 per barrel geopolitical risk premium is priced into crude.
• Brent is capped below $71 while holding $70.22 support.
• Natural gas has broken below $2.85, exposing $2.75 support.

Energy markets are walking a tightrope.

On one side, escalating Middle East tensions and high-level diplomacy in Geneva have injected a sizable geopolitical premium into crude prices. On the other, a massive U.S. inventory build is acting as a ceiling, preventing oil from breaking decisively higher.

The result: tightening triangle patterns across WTI and Brent charts, with traders waiting for a catalyst.

Geopolitics Inject a $10 Risk Premium Into Crude

Crude futures are edging higher, but gains remain restrained.

Brent is hovering near $71, while WTI trades around the mid-$65 range. Much of that strength appears linked to geopolitical uncertainty, particularly concerns over potential supply disruptions tied to Middle East tensions.

Market participants estimate that roughly $10 per barrel of current pricing reflects risk premium rather than pure supply-demand fundamentals.

If diplomatic efforts in Geneva were to fail, WTI could rapidly test — or even clear — the $70 level. However, upside momentum is being checked by domestic supply data.

A surprise 16 million barrel build in U.S. crude inventories — vastly exceeding the expected 1.5 million increase — has reinforced concerns about near-term oversupply.

At the same time, OPEC+ is reportedly considering a modest production increase of around 137,000 barrels per day beginning in April, a move aimed at stabilizing global supply amid geopolitical friction.

Institutional flows suggest traders see Iranian supply risks as the primary upside catalyst, but swollen U.S. stockpiles as the dominant near-term cap.

Natural Gas Forecast: Breakdown Below $2.85 Puts $2.75 in Play

Natural gas futures are trading near $2.82 on the 2-hour chart, slipping below the key $2.85 horizontal support.

Recent candles show consecutive bearish bodies with minimal lower wicks — a technical signal that sellers remain in control rather than facing aggressive dip buying.

The 200-EMA near $2.90 has flipped into resistance, while the 50-EMA around $2.95 continues to act as a ceiling.

If price fails to reclaim $2.85 quickly, the next major support level sits at $2.75. A deeper breakdown could expose $2.66.

Momentum indicators remain subdued, reinforcing the near-term bearish bias unless bulls regain control above former support.

WTI Crude Oil Forecast: $65.20 Support Anchors Tight Triangle

WTI crude is consolidating near $65.45 after failing to break through the $66.80–$67.20 resistance zone.

Price action shows smaller candle bodies and repeated upper wicks near $66, indicating persistent selling pressure around the 0.236 Fibonacci level near $65.99.

However, bulls continue defending the 0.382 Fibonacci level at $65.20, which aligns with a prior breakout zone and horizontal support.

A rising trendline originating near $61.86 remains intact, creating a tightening triangle structure on the 2-hour chart.

The 50-period EMA near $65.30 is acting as dynamic support, while RSI fluctuates in the neutral 45–50 range — signaling consolidation rather than directional momentum.

A sustained move above $66 could open the path toward $67.20, while a break below $65.20 would weaken the bullish structure.

Brent Crude Outlook: Compression Below $71 Signals Imminent Break

Brent crude is trading around $70.70, trapped between $70.22 support and $71.02 resistance at the 0.236 Fibonacci level.

Repeated upper wicks below $71 suggest strong supply at that level. Still, price remains supported by the 0.382 Fibonacci level near $70.22, which also marks a prior breakout area.

An ascending trendline from $66.84 continues to guide price higher, forming another tightening triangle pattern.

The 50-EMA near $70.60 provides dynamic support, while RSI remains neutral around 48–50.

As compression intensifies, a decisive breakout appears increasingly likely.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Why hasn’t oil broken above $70 despite geopolitical tensions?

A massive 16 million barrel U.S. inventory build has offset much of the bullish geopolitical risk premium, limiting upside momentum.

How much geopolitical risk is priced into crude?

Market estimates suggest roughly $10 per barrel reflects geopolitical concerns tied to Middle East tensions.

What level is critical for WTI?

Support at $65.20 is key. A break below would weaken the current bullish triangle structure.

What’s the outlook for Brent?

Brent remains capped below $71 but supported at $70.22. A breakout from this tightening range could determine short-term direction.

Is natural gas turning bearish?

Yes, in the short term. A sustained move below $2.85 shifts focus to $2.75 as the next support level.

For more daily forecasts and in-depth analysis on crude oil, natural gas, and broader energy markets, visit our Commodities Forecasts section and stay ahead of market trends.