Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: WTI Holds Near EMA Support as Hormuz Shipping Risks Intensify

What to Know

• Strait of Hormuz shipping slowed sharply over the weekend, raising uncertainty around Middle East oil and LNG supply flows.
• Kpler data cited by Reuters showed just five vessels crossed the strait on Saturday and none the following day, compared with 31 the previous weekend.
• Iran continues to refuse talks with Washington, while the UAE reported another attack against an ADNOC associated tanker.
• Weaker global demand forecasts are offsetting geopolitical supply disruption concerns in oil markets.
• The IEA expects a drop in global oil demand of 1.6 million barrels a day in 2026 and a 2.8 million barrel a day drop in 2026 compared with 2025.
• OPEC remains more optimistic and, for the fourth consecutive time, is projecting 580,000 b/d growth in demand.
• Qatar’s LNG force majeure continues to pressure Asian buyers, with Petronet in India losing at least 56 cargoes.
• Natural gas is trading around $2.65 after breaking below the important $2.68 support level.
• WTI is trading around $81.76 and remains supported near its $80.94 to $81.29 moving average area.
• Brent is trading around $88.38 and remains technically constructive above the $86.15 to $86.67 support cluster.

Energy Markets Weigh Hormuz Risk Against Softer Demand

Oil and gas markets are entering a delicate phase as supply risk in the Middle East collides with signs of softer demand. The Strait of Hormuz remains the central concern for traders because it is a critical route for crude oil and LNG movements. A sharp slowdown in weekend vessel traffic has intensified questions about whether supply chains could become more fragile if geopolitical tensions worsen.

The most immediate catalyst is the reported decline in traffic through the strait. Kpler data cited by Reuters showed only five vessels crossing on Saturday and none the following day, compared with 31 during the prior weekend. That type of slowdown does not automatically confirm a sustained disruption, but it does raise the risk premium attached to oil and LNG because the market must price the possibility of slower deliveries, rerouting, or replacement buying.

Middle East tensions remain unresolved. There has been little forward movement in U.S.-Iran talks, with Iran still refusing to engage with Washington. At the same time, the UAE reported another attack against an ADNOC associated tanker. For energy traders, these developments are important because even temporary interruptions near a major shipping corridor can force refiners, utilities, and LNG buyers to adjust procurement plans quickly.

Demand Outlook Limits the Bullish Reaction

Despite the worsening supply risk, oil prices have not produced a decisive breakout. A major reason is the weaker global demand backdrop. The IEA predicts a drop in global oil demand of 1.6 million barrels a day in 2026 and a 2.8 million barrel a day drop in 2026 compared with 2025. The agency attributes the decline to high prices and disruptions linked to the Hormuz supply chain.

That demand view is acting as a bearish counterweight to the geopolitical premium. When traders see potential supply disruption, prices often rise quickly. However, when the same market also faces expectations for weaker consumption, rallies can become harder to sustain. In the current setup, buyers have reason to defend key technical supports, but they also need stronger evidence of demand resilience before pushing WTI and Brent through important resistance zones.

OPEC’s outlook is more constructive. The group has adjusted its 2026 demand outlook but, for the fourth time in a row, continues to project 580,000 b/d growth in demand. This divergence between the IEA’s more cautious view and OPEC’s more optimistic projection is helping keep oil prices in a contested range. Market participants are not only trading headlines from the Middle East; they are also deciding which demand path is more credible.

LNG Market Tightens as Qatar Force Majeure Continues

The LNG market is facing a separate but related challenge. Qatar’s force majeure continues to affect buyers in Asia, where replacement cargoes are being sought from alternative suppliers. Petronet in India has lost at least 56 cargoes, and September supply remains unclear. For buyers that rely on scheduled LNG arrivals, the uncertainty can create operational and pricing pressure even when local demand patterns vary.

The Strait of Hormuz had carried a fifth of total LNG trade before the latest disruption concerns. That exposure explains why Asian buyers are looking toward U.S., Omani, Nigerian, and Angolan supplies. Replacement buying can tighten spot availability, especially if multiple buyers compete for similar delivery windows. It can also reshape trade flows as cargoes move toward regions where supply anxiety is greatest.

Still, the global gas picture is not uniformly bullish. U.S. natural gas fundamentals look more comfortable after the latest storage report showed a 36 Bcf injection, alongside a surplus above the 5-year mean of 198 Bcf, even with high electricity demand during the summer. That storage cushion is one reason natural gas has struggled to gain traction despite international LNG supply concerns.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis: Break Below $2.68 Keeps Sellers in Control

Natural gas is trading around $2.65 after breaking below the significant $2.68 support level on the 4 hour time frame. The move has strengthened the bearish technical structure, especially with price still trading below the 50 EMA at $2.74 and the 100 EMA at $2.78. A downward sloping trendline continues to reinforce the pressure, while the latest bearish candles suggest selling has returned after a failed move above $2.80.

The RSI is below the 50 neutral level at 31, indicating natural gas is in oversold territory and that short term downside momentum is stretched. This does not guarantee an immediate reversal, but it does mean sellers may need fresh momentum to continue pressing the market lower. Technical traders are watching whether price can stabilize near the next support levels or whether another breakdown extends the move.

Immediate support is seen at $2.62, followed by $2.55 and $2.50. Resistance is located at $2.68, $2.75, and $2.80. Until natural gas can recover above the $2.68 to $2.75 area, the structure remains bearish. A break below $2.62 could expose $2.55, while a move above $2.75 would be needed to shift the short term structure toward a more constructive outlook.

WTI Technical Analysis: EMA Cluster Supports the Bullish Case

WTI crude oil is trading around $81.76 on the 4 hour chart, consolidating around the 50 EMA at $81.29 and the 100 EMA at $80.95. This moving average zone has become an important technical battleground. Buyers have defended the area, but repeated failures near resistance have limited upside momentum.

Price has recovered from the early August low at $74.38, yet the resistance zone at $84.33 has capped several attempts to extend the move. Recent candles point to sideways trade rather than a decisive reversal. That means the market is waiting for a clearer signal, either through a sustained move above resistance or a break below the EMA cluster.

The RSI is currently at 50, pointing to neutral momentum. Immediate resistance is expected at $84.33, then $86.87 and $90.56. Support is expected at $80.94, followed by $77.81 and $74.38. As long as WTI holds above the EMA cluster, some chart watchers continue to view the bullish scenario as intact. A break below $80.94 would weaken the short term structure, while a recovery through $84.33 would reopen the path toward higher resistance levels.

Brent Technical Analysis: $91.13 Remains the Upside Barrier

Brent crude oil is trading around $88.38 on the 4 hour chart and remains above both the 50 EMA at $86.88 and the 100 EMA at $86.15. The market has recovered sharply from the $78.26 area and is now consolidating beneath the recent swing resistance at $91.13. The recovery remains intact, but momentum has cooled as recent candles have formed within a tighter range.

The RSI is around 54, suggesting slightly bullish sentiment without showing an overly stretched market. Immediate resistance is near $91.13, followed by $95.23 and $99.07. The first significant support sits around $86.67, close to the moving average cluster, with additional support around $82.06 and $78.26.

Brent remains technically constructive above the $86.15 to $86.67 support zone. A sustained break above $91.13 would likely strengthen bullish sentiment and signal that buyers are regaining control. However, a break below the EMA cluster would increase the risk of a deeper pullback, particularly if demand concerns continue to limit the market’s willingness to price a larger geopolitical premium.

Market Outlook: Range Trading Until the Next Catalyst

The current energy market is defined by competing forces. Hormuz disruptions reduce confidence in available oil and LNG supply, while weaker demand expectations and comfortable U.S. gas storage limit the room for a broad price surge. That combination has left WTI and Brent supported but not yet breaking higher, while natural gas remains under pressure after losing a key support level.

For traders, the next directional move may depend on whether supply disruptions deepen or demand concerns become more dominant. If shipping constraints intensify, oil and LNG risk premiums could rise. If demand forecasts continue to deteriorate, rallies may face renewed selling near resistance. Until then, technical levels are likely to remain the clearest guide for short term positioning.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Why is the Strait of Hormuz important for oil and LNG markets?

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical shipping route for energy supplies. When vessel traffic slows or security risks rise, traders become concerned that oil and LNG deliveries could be delayed, rerouted, or disrupted.

What happened to Hormuz shipping over the weekend?

Kpler data cited by Reuters showed five vessels crossed the strait on Saturday and none the following day, compared with 31 the prior weekend. That slowdown increased uncertainty around Middle East supply flows.

Why have oil prices not rallied more strongly?

Supply risks are being offset by weaker demand expectations. The IEA expects a decline in global oil demand in 2026, which is limiting the bullish impact of geopolitical disruption concerns.

What is the key WTI support zone?

WTI is holding near the moving average cluster around $80.94 to $81.29. A break below $80.94 would weaken the short term structure, while holding that zone keeps the bullish scenario alive.

What resistance level matters most for WTI?

The key near term WTI resistance is $84.33. A sustained move above that level would suggest stronger upside momentum and could shift attention toward $86.87 and $90.56.

What is the key Brent support area?

Brent remains technically constructive above the $86.15 to $86.67 support cluster. A break below that area would increase the risk of a deeper pullback.

Why is natural gas under pressure?

Natural gas broke below $2.68 and is trading beneath its 50 EMA and 100 EMA. Comfortable U.S. storage conditions and bearish technical momentum have kept sellers in control.

What are the next natural gas support levels?

Immediate natural gas support is at $2.62, followed by $2.55 and $2.50. A break below $2.62 could keep the downside move active.

How is Qatar’s LNG force majeure affecting Asian buyers?

Qatar’s force majeure has forced Asian buyers to seek replacement cargoes from suppliers including the U.S., Oman, Nigeria, and Angola. Petronet in India has lost at least 56 cargoes, and September supply remains unclear.

Photo by Diego F. Parra on Pexels