IEA

Crude prices eased as Qatari mediation raised hopes of de-escalation between the US and Iran, but continued Houthi attacks on Saudi targets kept supply risk elevated. WTI is holding near key support around $100.60, Brent is testing the $109.13 area, and natural gas remains under pressure after breaking below $2.68.

Commodity markets are sharply outperforming equities, with the S&P GSCI Commodity Index up 60.03% year-to-date against 14.16% for the S&P 500. Market participants say the move reflects a wider repricing of scarcity across energy, freight, metals and agriculture rather than a single isolated rally.

WTI crude is holding firm near $95.82, with traders watching whether buyers can force a break above $98.23 and open the door toward $99.23 and $100.14. Natural gas also remains in focus after a 67bcf storage build came in below expectations, while LNG demand and a pipeline outage may limit injections ahead of winter.

Natural gas pushed higher as improved weather forecasts and short-covering supported the rebound. WTI and Brent oil also recovered from session lows as traders focused on potential supply risks tied to activity around the Strait of Hormuz.

Gold opened the week sharply lower, trading near $4,331 after losing about $77, as a reported diplomatic meeting that supported Friday’s risk bounce failed to materialize. WTI crude moved back above $102 as Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline shutdown revived concerns over a major export bypass route.

Oil markets are balancing tighter Middle East supply risk against a weaker global demand outlook, leaving WTI and Brent in consolidation zones. Natural gas has broken key support as U.S. storage conditions and technical selling keep pressure on prices.

Silver’s advance stalled after a move to $66.80 as a resilient dollar offset support from softer inflation data and lower September rate-hike expectations. Traders are now watching whether the metal can reclaim upside momentum or slip back toward key moving-average support.

Spot gold eased Thursday after reaching $4,449.83, its highest level since June 5, as buyers struggled to extend the rally despite softer inflation signals and lower Treasury yields. Technical traders are watching whether a bearish closing price reversal develops, with resistance near $4,481.78 and $4,501.24 and support clustered around the 50-day moving average.

Energy markets are caught between a sharp U.S. crude inventory build, softer demand expectations and uncertain Gulf supply flows. WTI, Brent and natural gas remain technically constructive, but buyers still need confirmation at key resistance levels.