What to Know

  • Crude rose on Friday and is on track for a fourth straight monthly gain, the strongest run since July.
  • Brent is up nearly 14% in October, while WTI is up about 15% and is set for its first monthly close above $100 since April.
  • The Houthis claimed attacks on Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura and Rabigh refineries and an Aramco facility at Abqaiq.
  • Abqaiq is significant because it processes most Saudi crude before export.
  • US crude inventories fell 1.9mn barrels in the week to October 23, marking a fourth straight weekly decline.
  • Russian refinery runs rebounded by 350,000 barrels a day last week to 4mn bpd, offering partial relief for diesel supply.
  • The EIA reported an 80 Bcf natural gas storage injection for the week to October 23, above expectations.
  • Natural gas inventories reached 3,724 Bcf, 38 Bcf above the five year average but 147 Bcf below last year.
  • WTI is trading near $103.40, while January Brent futures are near $112.30 and December natural gas is near $2.90/MMBtu.

Crude Extends October Rally as Supply Risk Dominates

Oil markets entered the final stretch of October with upward momentum intact, as crude rose on Friday and remained on course for a fourth straight monthly gain. The move has been driven by a mix of geopolitical risk, tightening visible inventories, and resilient technical trends that continue to keep buyers active on dips. Brent has advanced nearly 14% in October, while WTI has gained about 15%, placing the US benchmark on track for its first monthly close above $100 since April.

The latest catalyst came from the expansion of Houthi attacks across Saudi Arabia’s energy system. The group claimed strikes on the Ras Tanura and Rabigh refineries, along with an Aramco facility at Abqaiq. The market reaction reflects the importance of the targeted infrastructure, particularly Abqaiq, which processes most Saudi crude before export. When risk centers on facilities tied directly to export flows, traders tend to price in a larger security premium because any disruption could affect barrels moving into the global market.

The attack claims also arrived as diplomatic signals remained uncertain. A senior Iranian official dismissed a Qatari draft deal as unacceptable, while President Trump played down Vice President JD Vance’s letter to Tehran, saying it concerned medical supplies. That left market participants with little reason to remove the geopolitical premium from crude prices. MST Marquee’s Saul Kavonic said doubts over a viable diplomatic path are keeping prices elevated in expectation of escalation in the coming weeks.

Security Concerns Reach Energy Industry Calendar

The broader sense of caution is not limited to futures screens. ExxonMobil and Chevron cancelled executive travel to the UAE’s biggest oil show next week over security concerns, sources told Reuters. While conference travel decisions do not directly change crude supply, they signal that major industry players are treating regional risk as a serious operational consideration. For traders, that reinforces the view that current tensions are not merely headline noise but a factor that could influence planning across the energy sector.

In oil markets, risk premiums can build quickly when the potential disruption involves major producing or exporting regions. Saudi Arabia remains central to global crude flows, and infrastructure such as processing plants, refineries, and export linked facilities sits at the heart of supply confidence. Even when physical flows continue, the possibility of interruption can raise prompt prices as refiners, trading houses, and financial participants reassess exposure.

WTI Supported by Falling US Stocks

WTI has also found support from tightening US inventory data. The EIA said US crude stocks fell 1.9mn barrels in the week to October 23, marking a fourth straight weekly decline. Repeated drawdowns can indicate that supply is not keeping pace with demand or that export and refinery dynamics are pulling barrels out of storage. In either case, declining inventories tend to underpin prices when geopolitical risk is already elevated.

There was one partial offset in the broader supply picture. JPMorgan said Russian refinery runs rebounded by 350,000 barrels a day last week to 4mn bpd. That could add to global diesel supply after months of strikes on Russian plants. Still, the improvement appears to be a limited easing factor rather than a full reversal of the tighter oil backdrop. With US crude stocks continuing to fall and Middle East risks rising, the market’s bias remains sensitive to any further signs of disruption.

WTI Technical Picture: $103.94 Remains the Breakout Line

On the technical side, WTI is trading near $103.40 on the 4 hour chart, up about 1.4% today. The contract briefly moved above $103.94 to $104.64, then slipped back below that ceiling. That marks the third test of the same resistance area in a week, making $103.94 an important near term level for technical traders.

Prices remain inside a rising channel that has guided the market higher since early October. Resistance is seen at $103.94, then $107.38. Support is located at $99.61, followed by $95.41. RSI is near 60 and above its signal line, pointing to positive momentum without suggesting that the move is excessively stretched. Some chart watchers remain bullish while WTI holds $99.61, but a close above $103.94 would be needed to confirm a breakout and open the way toward $107.38. A brief spike through resistance is not enough for confirmation.

Brent Holds Bullish Lean Despite Failed Spike

January Brent futures are trading near $112.30 on the 4 hour chart, up about 1.4% today. Brent jumped to $114.07, briefly moving above the $112.20 ceiling that had capped prices for a week, but quickly gave back most of the gain. The retreat shows that sellers are still active near upper resistance, even as the broader channel continues to point higher.

The first resistance for Brent is $114.37, followed by $116.81. On the downside, $112.20 is the first support, with $109.17 below it. RSI is near 60 and rising, which keeps momentum constructive but not extreme. Technical traders see Brent maintaining a slight bullish lean while it holds $109.17. A close above $114.37 would strengthen the breakout case and bring $116.81 into focus.

Natural Gas Turns Lower After Storage Build

Natural gas moved in the opposite direction from crude after the EIA reported an 80 Bcf injection for the week to October 23. The build was above expectations and ended a 10 week run of below average injections, according to NGI. Inventories reached 3,724 Bcf, standing 38 Bcf above the five year average but 147 Bcf below last year. That leaves the storage cushion normal rather than ample.

The South Central region accounted for more than half the build. That region matters because it includes Gulf Coast salt caverns that supply LNG plants. Storage activity there can be especially important when LNG export demand is expected to rise. On the demand side, NextDecade expects to introduce gas into its Rio Grande LNG terminal before year end, which would add a new buyer just as winter starts.

For now, however, the larger than expected build has shifted the near term tone lower. December natural gas is trading near $2.90/MMBtu on the 2 hour chart, down about 1.8% today. The recent rebound stalled near $3.08, and prices have fallen back below $3.00. Both moving averages are falling above price, a structure that typically signals pressure from overhead supply.

Natural Gas Technical Picture: $2.80 Comes Into Focus

The first support for natural gas is $2.80, this week’s low, followed by $2.64. Resistance sits at $3.00, then $3.12. RSI is near 31, close to oversold, which means prices have fallen quickly. Oversold readings can sometimes produce short term rebounds, but they do not automatically end a downtrend when resistance remains intact.

Some chart watchers view natural gas as bearish below $3.00. A close below $2.80 would open $2.64, while a recovery above $3.00 would be the first sign that sellers are losing near term control. The market now has to balance a normal storage cushion, the approach of winter, and the possibility of additional LNG related demand before year end.

Market Outlook: Oil Risk Premium Versus Gas Supply Cushion

The split between crude and natural gas highlights two very different market narratives. Oil is being pulled higher by geopolitical uncertainty, repeated US inventory draws, and firm technical structures in both Brent and WTI. Natural gas, by contrast, is under pressure from a larger storage injection and bearish chart signals, even though inventories are not excessive relative to recent history.

For crude, the immediate focus is whether Brent can close above $114.37 and whether WTI can secure a close above $103.94. Those levels would help confirm that buyers have converted recent intraday strength into a more durable breakout. For natural gas, the key question is whether $2.80 holds or gives way to $2.64. Until those levels resolve, energy markets may continue to show a clear divergence between oil strength and gas weakness.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Why did oil prices rise on Friday?

Oil prices rose as expanded Houthi attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure increased concerns about supply security. The move added to existing support from falling US crude inventories and strong October momentum.

How much have Brent and WTI gained in October?

Brent is up nearly 14% in October, while WTI is up about 15%. WTI is also set for its first monthly close above $100 since April.

Why is Abqaiq important to oil markets?

Abqaiq is important because it processes most Saudi crude before export. Any threat to that facility can raise concern about the reliability of global crude supply flows.

What are the key WTI price levels to watch?

WTI resistance is at $103.94, then $107.38. Support is at $99.61, followed by $95.41. Technical traders are watching for a close above $103.94 to confirm a breakout.

What are the key Brent price levels to watch?

Brent faces resistance at $114.37, then $116.81. Support is at $112.20, followed by $109.17. A close above $114.37 would strengthen the bullish technical case.

Why did natural gas prices fall?

Natural gas fell after the EIA reported an 80 Bcf storage injection for the week to October 23. The build was above expectations and ended a 10 week run of below average injections.

How large are US natural gas inventories?

Inventories reached 3,724 Bcf. That is 38 Bcf above the five year average but 147 Bcf below last year, leaving the cushion normal rather than ample.

What natural gas price levels matter now?

Natural gas support is at $2.80, followed by $2.64. Resistance is at $3.00, then $3.12. Some chart watchers view the market as bearish below $3.00.

Could LNG demand affect natural gas later?

Yes. NextDecade expects to introduce gas into its Rio Grande LNG terminal before year end, which would add a new buyer as winter begins. That potential demand matters, even though the current technical tone remains weak.