Oil Price Forecast: Brent and WTI Volatile as US-Iran Ceasefire Uncertainty Persists

What to Know

• Oil prices remain volatile as uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran ceasefire continues to drive market sentiment and supply concerns.
• Supply risks persist as shipping disruptions, security threats, and logistical delays slow the return of oil flows through key Middle East routes.
• Technical indicators show potential upside momentum, but price direction will depend largely on whether geopolitical tensions escalate or stabilize.

Oil Prices Stay Volatile as Ceasefire Uncertainty Clouds Outlook

Oil prices are experiencing heightened volatility as markets reassess the durability of the ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran. While the announcement of the ceasefire initially eased fears about major supply disruptions, lingering tensions and ongoing regional conflicts have kept traders cautious.

Both Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) are trading above key levels, reflecting the market’s struggle to price in geopolitical risks. Brent crude recently hovered above $98.70 while WTI remained above $96.70, with price swings driven largely by news developments related to security and shipping conditions in the Middle East.

The oil market is highly sensitive to geopolitical developments in the region because the Middle East remains one of the world’s most critical oil-producing and export corridors. Even small disruptions in shipping routes or infrastructure can quickly influence global supply expectations and trigger price volatility.

The current market environment reflects this sensitivity. While the ceasefire reduced immediate fears of widespread conflict, uncertainty about whether the agreement will hold has prevented prices from stabilizing.

Oil Supply Risks Persist Despite Ceasefire Agreement

One of the central issues for oil traders is the slow return of normal shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil transit chokepoints. A significant portion of global oil shipments passes through this narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to international markets.

Although the ceasefire created expectations that shipping would resume normally, many transport companies remain cautious. Security concerns, elevated insurance premiums, and operational uncertainties have caused delays in restoring full shipping capacity.

Iran has implemented new navigation rules and safety measures aimed at improving maritime security in the region. However, these measures have not fully reassured shipping companies or energy traders.

As a result, the market still faces potential supply constraints. Even if oil production remains steady, the ability to transport crude to international buyers remains limited until shipping routes return to normal operations.

This situation means that the global oil market could remain tight in the near term, providing underlying support for prices.

Middle East Tensions Continue to Influence Oil Market Sentiment

Geopolitical tensions across the Middle East remain a key driver of oil price volatility. While the ceasefire between the United States and Iran reduced one source of conflict, other regional tensions have continued to create uncertainty.

Recent developments involving Israel and Lebanon have added another layer of risk to the energy market. Infrastructure attacks or security incidents near energy facilities can quickly impact production, storage, or transportation capacity.

Because of these risks, traders remain highly sensitive to headlines related to the region. Any signs of renewed escalation could quickly push oil prices higher as markets begin pricing in potential supply disruptions.

On the other hand, if tensions ease and shipping routes reopen fully, oil prices could come under pressure. Increased supply availability combined with improved transportation logistics could push crude prices lower.

At the moment, oil markets remain trapped between these two scenarios. The balance between geopolitical risks and potential supply normalization continues to shape price movements.

WTI Technical Analysis – Strong Support Zone Holds

From a technical perspective, WTI crude oil continues to maintain a broadly bullish long-term structure despite recent volatility.

Earlier in March 2026, WTI reached a major resistance level near $120 before pulling back sharply following the ceasefire announcement. Prices subsequently declined toward the $90 region, which has emerged as a critical support zone.

This support area aligns with previous highs recorded in September 2023, making it a technically significant level for traders.

After reaching this support zone, WTI prices began rebounding as renewed geopolitical tensions raised concerns about supply disruptions.

If WTI closes above the $120 level on a monthly basis, it could break a descending channel pattern that has contained prices over the past several months. A confirmed breakout would signal a continuation of the broader bullish trend.

However, if geopolitical tensions ease and supply concerns fade, prices could remain trapped within a consolidation range between $90 and $120.

Brent Crude Technical Analysis – $100 Remains Key Level

Brent crude oil is showing a similar price pattern. After falling toward $92.50 earlier in the week, prices rebounded back above the psychologically important $100 level.

The $100 price area has become one of the most important levels in the global oil market. Over the past month, Brent has fluctuated between roughly $90 and $120, reflecting uncertainty surrounding geopolitical developments and supply expectations.

If Brent crude manages to hold above $100 and break through nearby resistance levels, the next potential upside target could be around $110.

On the downside, the $90 level remains strong support. A break below this area could trigger additional selling pressure, potentially pushing prices toward the $85–$80 range.

Traders are closely watching these levels as the market reacts to new geopolitical developments.

Bottom Line

Oil prices remain highly sensitive to geopolitical developments in the Middle East, and volatility is likely to persist until markets gain greater clarity regarding the stability of the US-Iran ceasefire.

Supply disruptions, shipping delays, and ongoing regional tensions continue to limit the return of normal oil flows. These risks are currently supporting prices despite the potential for improved supply conditions.

At the same time, technical indicators suggest that oil could move significantly higher if key resistance levels break. However, a stabilization of the geopolitical situation and a recovery in shipping activity could quickly reverse the current upward pressure.

For now, traders remain focused on both geopolitical headlines and key technical levels as the oil market searches for direction.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Why are oil prices currently volatile?

Oil prices are fluctuating due to uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran ceasefire, ongoing regional tensions in the Middle East, and concerns about potential disruptions to global oil supply routes.

Why is the Strait of Hormuz important for oil markets?

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most critical oil transit routes in the world. A large percentage of global oil shipments pass through it, meaning any disruption can significantly impact global supply.

What are the key technical levels for WTI crude oil?

WTI has major support near $90 and resistance around $120. A breakout above $120 could signal further upside momentum.

What is the key price level for Brent crude?

The $100 level is currently a critical price point for Brent crude. Holding above this level could support further gains, while a break below $90 could trigger additional downside pressure.

For more daily forecasts and in-depth analysis on Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI), visit our Commodities Forecasts section and stay ahead of market trends.