What to Know

  • Oil prices stayed near a one week high on Tuesday as optimism around a US Iran peace deal weakened.
  • WTI crude oil has moved near $82, while Brent crude oil remains above $90.50.
  • Both major oil benchmarks rose over 5% on Monday after President Donald Trump called for compensation from Iran as part of any agreement.
  • Market participants are keeping a risk premium in crude because future oil supplies may face further regional disruption.
  • Saudi Aramco has pushed back the restart of its 400,000 bpd Jazan refinery, adding pressure to the supply outlook.
  • Exports through the Strait of Hormuz dropped to 3 million bpd in the week ended August 7 from 4.4 million bpd a week earlier.
  • WTI technical traders are watching $87, $93.80, and $97 as key resistance levels, with $100 and $120 in focus if momentum strengthens.
  • Brent is approaching $92 resistance, with $100 and $120 in view if the breakout develops while $81 support holds.

Oil Holds Firm as Geopolitical Risk Stays in the Price

Oil markets remained supported on Tuesday as hopes for a US Iran peace agreement lost momentum and traders continued to price the possibility of supply disruption. WTI crude oil has reached near $82, while Brent crude oil remains above $90.50, leaving both benchmarks close to a one week high. The move follows a sharp rally on Monday, when both benchmarks gained over 5% as political uncertainty around any potential agreement increased.

The key driver remains the risk that regional tensions could affect the flow of crude and refined products. President Donald Trump’s call for compensation from Iran as part of any agreement complicated expectations for a quick diplomatic breakthrough. For energy traders, the issue is not only whether an agreement is possible, but whether the path toward one could remain slow and uncertain enough to justify a higher risk premium in oil prices.

Crude oil often reacts quickly to geopolitical developments because the market is highly sensitive to potential disruptions in major shipping corridors and producing regions. Even when physical supply remains available, the possibility of delays, rerouting, higher insurance costs, or refinery interruptions can raise the cost of moving barrels through the global system. That uncertainty is currently helping to keep WTI and Brent supported in the short term.

Hormuz Flows and Jazan Delay Tighten the Supply Picture

The supply backdrop has become more complicated as Saudi Aramco pushed back the restart of its 400,000 bpd Jazan refinery. A delayed restart at a facility of that size can influence regional product balances and adds another layer of uncertainty for traders already focused on security conditions near major shipping routes.

Shipping risks are also shaping the market mood. Insurance costs have increased, and some ships have been diverted to longer routes because of continued risks in the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el Mandeb. These waterways are closely watched because they form part of the infrastructure that connects regional production with global consumers. When vessels face higher costs or longer routes, traders may assume that global energy flows could remain tight, even if headline production levels are not immediately reduced.

The change in exports through Hormuz has been especially important for sentiment. Exports through the Strait of Hormuz dropped to 3 million bpd for the week ended August 7 from 4.4 million bpd a week earlier. That decline reinforces the view that supply routes are vulnerable to disruption, and it gives crude bulls a near term argument for keeping prices elevated.

Still, the rally is not without risk. Any meaningful progress toward a peace agreement could quickly ease the geopolitical premium embedded in crude prices. Likewise, a reopening or normalization of key shipping routes could reduce concern about short term tightness and pressure prices lower. For now, however, market participants appear unwilling to remove the risk premium while diplomatic and shipping uncertainties remain unresolved.

WTI Forecast: $87 and $93.80 Are the Next Tests

WTI crude oil’s technical picture has improved as prices recover from recent support and attempt to extend the rally. The weekly chart shows strong volatility below the $120 region, with prices trading between $60 and $120 during the past few months following the US Iran war. That broad range reflects a market still attempting to balance geopolitical risk, supply uncertainty, and the possibility that diplomatic progress could reverse some of the recent gains.

Since WTI crude oil reached a low of $67 in June 2026, prices have been attempting to rally back toward the $100 area. Last week, WTI produced a low at short term support of $74 and then recovered above $80.50. For technical traders, that rebound indicates positive momentum toward the $92 region, provided buyers can continue defending higher support levels.

Momentum indicators are also being watched closely. The RSI is attempting to recover above the midline this week. If the RSI moves back above the 50 level, some chart watchers believe it would increase the probability of a stronger rally toward the $100 area. In technical analysis, a move above the RSI midline is often interpreted as a shift toward improving momentum, especially when price is already reclaiming important nearby levels.

Short term price action also points to a constructive structure above $67. Some technical traders see the development as a cup and handle pattern. A break above $97 would confirm that formation and increase the likelihood of a stronger rally toward the $120 area. Until that confirmation occurs, however, the pattern remains a potential setup rather than a completed bullish signal.

As long as WTI remains below $97, consolidation may remain strong. The immediate resistance for WTI crude oil sits at $87. A break above $87 would put $93.80 into focus. If buyers clear $93.80, the next major test would be the $97 area. A move through that level would likely attract additional attention from momentum traders watching for a possible continuation toward $100 and, under stronger conditions, the broader $120 region.

Brent Forecast: $92 Breakout Could Open the $100 Path

Brent crude oil is also showing a constructive technical profile. The daily chart shows price action above the 50 and 200 day SMA, and Brent is now approaching resistance at $92. A break above $92 would likely push Brent toward the $100 region. If Brent then breaks above $100, the next upside area in focus would be $120.

The short term bullish view depends heavily on support holding. As long as Brent crude oil remains above $81 support, technical traders may continue to look for higher levels. That support zone is important because a loss of it would weaken the near term rally structure and could suggest that geopolitical support is fading or that buyers are becoming less aggressive.

Despite strong consolidation over the past few months, the broader price structure in Brent remains bullish. Some chart watchers argue that this construction leaves room for Brent crude oil to push toward the $127 and $200 areas after a few months of consolidation. That view remains a longer range technical projection, not a certainty, and it depends on price continuing to hold key supports while momentum expands.

The monthly RSI is also supporting the bullish interpretation. When the RSI hit the midline, Brent crude oil touched the key level of $72 in June. The rebound above that key level, together with the RSI remaining above the midline, indicates positive momentum in Brent crude oil. For longer term technical traders, that combination can signal that buyers are still active during pullbacks and that the broader uptrend may not be exhausted.

Market Outlook: Bullish Bias With Diplomatic Risk

The oil price outlook remains tilted to the upside in the short term because supply risks have increased while optimism around a US Iran peace deal has weakened. Lower exports through the Strait of Hormuz, the delayed restart of the Jazan refinery, higher insurance costs, and vessel diversions are all contributing to a tighter market narrative.

For WTI, the next important upside levels are $87 and $93.80 if positive momentum continues. Beyond that, $97 becomes the technical threshold that could confirm a more powerful rally structure. For Brent, $92 is the immediate breakout level, followed by the $100 region if buyers maintain control. Holding above $81 remains important for Brent’s short term bullish case.

The main counterweight is diplomacy. If there is progress toward peace or a clear easing of shipping risks, crude could quickly give back part of the risk premium. Oil prices can rise sharply when supply routes look threatened, but they can also reverse quickly when the market believes those threats are fading. For now, the balance of risks is keeping WTI and Brent elevated, with traders focused on whether technical breakouts can confirm the next leg higher.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Why are oil prices rising?

Oil prices are rising because optimism around a US Iran peace deal has weakened, while supply risks in key shipping corridors remain elevated. Traders are also reacting to refinery delays, higher insurance costs, and reduced exports through the Strait of Hormuz.

Where is WTI crude oil trading now?

WTI crude oil has moved near $82 after both major benchmarks rose over 5% on Monday. Technical traders are now watching whether WTI can break above $87 and extend toward $93.80.

Where is Brent crude oil trading now?

Brent crude oil remains above $90.50 and is approaching resistance at $92. A break above $92 would likely put the $100 region in focus if buyers continue to support the move.

What happened to exports through the Strait of Hormuz?

Exports through the Strait of Hormuz dropped to 3 million bpd for the week ended August 7 from 4.4 million bpd a week earlier. That decline has reinforced concerns about tightness in global energy flows.

Why does the Jazan refinery matter for oil prices?

Saudi Aramco pushed back the restart of its 400,000 bpd Jazan refinery. The delay adds pressure to the supply outlook and contributes to concerns that regional energy flows may remain tight in the short term.

What are the key WTI resistance levels?

The immediate WTI resistance level is $87. A break above $87 could push price toward $93.80, while a break above $93.80 would bring the $97 area into focus.

What are the key Brent resistance and support levels?

Brent is approaching resistance at $92. A break above that level would likely push price toward $100, while $81 remains an important support level for the short term bullish outlook.

Could oil prices fall from here?

Yes. If there is progress toward a peace agreement or if key shipping routes normalize, supply concerns could ease and oil prices could move lower as traders remove part of the geopolitical risk premium.

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