Oil Price Forecast | WTI Struggles Near $61 as OPEC+ Hike Speculation and Weak Demand Weigh

What to Know

• WTI crude slipped to $61.62, holding above critical support but failing to regain key moving averages.
• OPEC+ may consider a 500,000 bpd production hike in November, stoking bearish sentiment.
• Russia extended its gasoline export ban and tightened diesel restrictions, while Kurdish flows returned to the market.
• Weak U.S. economic data and the ongoing government shutdown fuel concerns over future demand.
• Technical levels remain bearish, with resistance at $63.08–$63.62 and support between $61.61 and $60.77.

Oil Market Overview

Crude oil prices extended their decline midweek, with WTI futures briefly touching $61.62 before stabilizing above a key support zone. That technical cluster, stretching from $61.61 to $60.77, continues to act as a critical defensive line for bullish traders. Despite this, WTI remains below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, positioned at $63.62 and $63.08 respectively, which have now turned into layers of resistance. At 10:37 GMT, WTI was trading at $62.27, down 0.16% on the session.

OPEC+ Speculation Keeps Market on Edge

Speculation over future OPEC+ policy is weighing heavily on sentiment. Reports suggest the group may raise output by as much as 500,000 barrels per day in November, tripling the scale of its last adjustment. Traders interpret this as an attempt by Saudi Arabia and its allies to defend market share, even as demand indicators soften. While OPEC publicly denied the reports and described them as misleading, the possibility of an aggressive supply increase has already capped upside momentum in crude prices.

Geopolitical Supply Shifts Offer Limited Relief

Geopolitical supply dynamics remain in focus, though their impact has been muted compared to demand pressures. Russia extended its gasoline export ban through the end of the year and tightened restrictions on diesel shipments in response to infrastructure attacks. Meanwhile, Kurdish exports through Turkey resumed, bringing additional barrels to the market. While these developments provide temporary support, they have not offset the broader bearish tone tied to global consumption trends.

U.S. Shutdown Clouds Demand Outlook

Demand concerns are accelerating as the U.S. government shutdown weighs on both consumers and policymakers. Nearly 750,000 federal workers face furloughs, threatening household spending at a time when energy demand is already under strain. The shutdown has also paused the release of critical economic data, including jobs and inflation reports, leaving the Federal Reserve without a clear policy guide ahead of its October 29 meeting. The lack of visibility and weaker consumption outlook continue to erode confidence in future oil demand.

Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude remains locked in a bearish structure while trading below the major moving averages. Unless prices reclaim the 200-day average near $63.08 or break decisively below support at $61.61, the market is likely to remain range-bound with a downside bias. Any confirmation of an OPEC+ supply increase would reinforce the bearish case, particularly if U.S. demand deteriorates further under the weight of the shutdown. For now, the balance of risk leans to the downside, with rallies facing strong resistance at $63.00–$63.60 and downside levels to watch near $61.60 and $60.80.

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