Oil Rebounds From Two-Month Low as Hormuz Risks Persist, Natural Gas Hits Four-Week High

What to Know

• Crude oil rose on Wednesday after falling to a two-month low in the previous session, with attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz keeping supply risk elevated.
• Thirty-seven ships were attacked in October, the highest monthly total since the start of the war, and recent data showed little sign of fewer attacks in November.
• Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Navy said two tankers caught fire after hitting naval mines on an unauthorized route in the strait.
• The EIA raised its Brent price forecasts to an average of $97 a barrel in 2026 and $86 in 2027, up from $96 and $84 a month earlier.
• The EIA expects Brent to average around $100 a barrel in November and December, citing falling global inventories, attacks on oil tankers and fewer available tankers.
• US crude stocks rose by 9mn barrels in the week ended November 6, according to American Petroleum Institute data cited by Reuters.
• Russian oil refining capacity has been reduced by about 30% since late October after renewed Ukrainian drone attacks, according to industry sources cited by Reuters.
• US natural gas prices climbed to around $3.24/MMBtu on Tuesday, their highest level in four weeks.
• LNG export flows have run at a record 19.3bn cubic feet per day so far in November, while Lower 48 output averaged 112.1 bcfd, down from 113.4 bcfd in October.
• WTI is trading near $86.52 on the 4-hour chart, with support at $83.99 and resistance at $91.84.
• January Brent futures are trading near $92.43, with $93.28 as a key pivot and $100.70 as the next upside level if buyers regain control.
• Natural gas is trading near $3.29/MMBtu after moving above its $3.25 pivot, with $3.40 and $3.52 in focus as resistance levels.

Oil Markets Rebound as Hormuz Risk Remains Central

Oil prices recovered on Wednesday after the previous session’s slide to a two-month low, as persistent danger around the Strait of Hormuz continued to challenge expectations for a swift easing in regional tensions. The waterway remains a key artery for global energy flows, and repeated incidents involving commercial shipping have kept traders focused on the possibility of supply disruptions, higher insurance costs and reduced vessel availability.

The latest market tone reflects a split between diplomatic hopes and physical-market caution. President Trump said on Monday that the war could end “fairly soon” and described new strikes as “quite unlikely,” offering a de-escalation signal that would normally weigh on crude risk premiums. However, an Iranian security official said no talks were taking place between the two sides, keeping uncertainty high. For energy traders, that mix has created a market where headlines can quickly alter short-term direction, but the underlying risk premium has not fully disappeared.

Shipping data remains a major concern. Thirty-seven ships were attacked in October, marking the highest monthly total since the start of the war, and recent data showed little sign that attacks eased in November. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Navy said two tankers caught fire after hitting naval mines on an unauthorized route in the strait. The threat is not limited to immediate cargo damage. Even if diplomatic progress emerges, mine clearance, insurance premiums, tanker availability and shipowner willingness to transit the route could all influence how quickly normal flows resume.

Brent Outlook Strengthens as Supply Risk Persists

The EIA raised its Brent forecasts in its November Short-Term Energy Outlook, pointing to tighter conditions in the global crude market. The agency now sees Brent averaging $97 a barrel in 2026 and $86 in 2027, compared with prior estimates of $96 and $84 a month earlier. The adjustment reflects a combination of falling global inventories, ongoing attacks on oil tankers and fewer available tankers, which have pushed tanker rates sharply higher.

The EIA also expects Brent to average around $100 a barrel in November and December. That forecast underscores how quickly geopolitical disruptions can influence oil-market expectations, particularly when physical inventories are already falling. For refiners and consumers, higher freight costs and reduced vessel availability can matter almost as much as the underlying crude price because both affect delivered energy costs.

January Brent futures are trading near $92.43 on the 4-hour chart, still below a broken rising trendline that had connected higher lows since August. The rebound from near $89.50 is now testing $93.28, which technical traders are treating as a key pivot. Both moving averages remain above price, suggesting sellers have not yet fully surrendered control despite the latest bounce.

Resistance for Brent sits at $93.28, followed by $100.70. Support is located at $87.02, then $82.63. The RSI has recovered to about 35 and moved above its signal line, indicating that downside momentum has eased. Still, some chart watchers maintain a slightly bearish lean while Brent remains below $93.28. A close above that level would shift focus toward $100.70, while a break below $87.02 would put $82.63 back in play.

WTI Faces US Inventory Headwind Despite Global Tension

WTI’s picture is more mixed. While global supply risks remain supportive, domestic inventory data has created a near-term headwind. US crude stocks rose by 9mn barrels in the week ended November 6, according to American Petroleum Institute data cited by Reuters. A build of that size can soften sentiment toward US crude because it suggests available supply has increased, at least in the short run.

At the same time, broader oil-market risks continue to offer support. Russian oil refining capacity has been reduced by about 30% since late October following renewed Ukrainian drone attacks, industry sources said, according to Reuters. Reduced refining capacity can affect product flows and regional balances, adding another layer of complexity to an already volatile market. For WTI traders, the challenge is balancing bearish domestic stock signals against global disruption risk.

WTI is trading near $86.52 on the 4-hour chart and remains below a broken rising channel that had guided prices higher since July. Buyers stepped in just above $83.99, allowing prices to stabilize, but the market remains below $91.84, a key pivot level calculated from the prior period’s high, low and close. Traders often use such pivot points to judge whether momentum favors buyers or sellers.

Support for WTI is at $83.99, followed by $79.45. Resistance is at $91.84, then $96.93. The RSI is near 32 and turning up from near 30, suggesting selling pressure is easing but not yet signaling a decisive bullish reversal. Technical traders are likely to view WTI as vulnerable while it holds below $91.84. A close below $83.99 would open the way toward $79.45, while a move through $91.84 would be needed to challenge the bearish near-term structure.

Natural Gas Climbs on Cooler Forecasts and Record LNG Demand

Natural gas has shown stronger momentum than crude in the near term. US natural gas prices climbed to around $3.24/MMBtu on Tuesday, their highest level in four weeks. The move came as weather forecasts turned cooler across parts of the central and eastern US through November 20, while LNG export demand remained exceptionally strong.

LNG export flows have run at a record 19.3bn cubic feet per day so far in November. Strong export demand can tighten the domestic market because more gas is pulled toward liquefaction facilities and global buyers. At the same time, Lower 48 output averaged 112.1 bcfd so far this month, down from 113.4 bcfd in October. Falling output alongside stronger export flows has helped shift sentiment in favor of buyers.

The EIA’s next storage report is due on Friday, November 13, one day later than usual because of the Veterans Day holiday. Stocks stood 1.4% above the five-year average in the week ended October 30. The key question for the gas market is whether cooler temperatures are strong enough to begin reducing that surplus. If the surplus narrows, bullish conviction could strengthen. If storage remains comfortably above normal, the rally may become more vulnerable to profit-taking.

Natural gas is trading near $3.29/MMBtu on the 4-hour chart after climbing above $3.25, its pivot point. Prices are also above both moving averages, and the faster moving average is turning higher. That structure keeps the near-term technical bias constructive, though momentum is stretched.

Resistance stands at $3.40, followed by $3.52. Support is at $3.25, then $3.09. The RSI is near 80, an overbought reading that suggests prices have risen quickly. In practical terms, that means a pause or short-term pullback would not be surprising, even if the broader setup remains positive. Market participants are likely to stay bullish while gas holds above $3.25, while a close above $3.40 would put $3.52 in focus.

Market Outlook: Geopolitics, Inventories and Weather Drive the Next Move

The energy complex is being pulled by several competing forces. For Brent and WTI, the Strait of Hormuz remains the central risk factor. Any sign that attacks are easing, shipping routes are safer or diplomatic talks are progressing could reduce the geopolitical premium. Conversely, more incidents involving tankers, mines or route restrictions could quickly renew buying pressure.

For WTI, the 9mn-barrel US crude stock build complicates the bullish argument. Domestic inventories can weigh on US prices even when global benchmarks are supported by supply risk. That divergence is one reason traders are watching the $83.99 support and $91.84 resistance levels closely. A break in either direction could help clarify whether the recent rebound is corrective or the start of a broader recovery.

For Brent, $93.28 is the immediate technical battleground. Holding below that level keeps sellers in control, while a close above it would suggest buyers are regaining influence. The EIA’s forecast for Brent to average around $100 a barrel in November and December offers a supportive backdrop, but technical confirmation remains important after the recent drop to two-month lows.

Natural gas is being driven less by geopolitics and more by weather, LNG demand and production trends. Cooler forecasts through November 20, record LNG export flows and lower Lower 48 output have all helped lift prices. However, the market still needs confirmation from storage data. With stocks 1.4% above the five-year average in the week ended October 30, the next phase depends on whether demand can meaningfully erode the surplus.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Why did oil prices rebound from a two-month low?

Oil rebounded because attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz continued to raise concerns about supply risk, tanker availability, insurance costs and the safety of moving crude through a key energy waterway.

What is the main risk for Brent crude right now?

The main risk for Brent is the continuing danger in the Strait of Hormuz. Even if diplomatic signals improve, mine clearance, insurance costs and shipowner willingness to use the route could affect oil flows.

What did the EIA change in its Brent forecast?

The EIA raised its Brent price forecasts to an average of $97 a barrel in 2026 and $86 in 2027, compared with $96 and $84 a month earlier. It also expects Brent to average around $100 a barrel in November and December.

Why is WTI under pressure despite geopolitical risk?

WTI faces pressure from domestic inventory data after US crude stocks rose by 9mn barrels in the week ended November 6. That build is a near-term headwind even as global supply risks remain supportive.

What are the key WTI technical levels?

WTI is trading near $86.52, with support at $83.99 and $79.45. Resistance stands at $91.84 and $96.93. Many technical traders remain cautious while WTI stays below $91.84.

What are the key Brent technical levels?

January Brent futures are trading near $92.43. Resistance is at $93.28 and $100.70, while support is at $87.02 and $82.63. A close above $93.28 would improve the near-term outlook for buyers.

Why did natural gas reach a four-week high?

Natural gas climbed as cooler forecasts through November 20 combined with record LNG export flows and lower Lower 48 output. Those factors supported demand expectations and tightened the near-term supply picture.

What natural gas levels are traders watching?

Natural gas is trading near $3.29/MMBtu after moving above the $3.25 pivot. Resistance is at $3.40 and $3.52, while support is at $3.25 and $3.09.

Why does the next EIA storage report matter for natural gas?

The storage report matters because stocks were 1.4% above the five-year average in the week ended October 30. Traders want to see whether cooler weather and strong LNG demand can start reducing that surplus.