XRP Forecast: ETF Inflows Support Bullish Bias Despite Bitcoin Pressure

What to Know

• XRP trades below the $2.0 psychological level as bearish EMAs continue to cap upside momentum.
• Seven consecutive weeks of XRP-spot ETF inflows are supporting a cautiously bullish short- to medium-term outlook.
• Weakness in Bitcoin and $589 million in BTC-spot ETF outflows remain a short-term drag on XRP price action.
• Weekly XRP-spot ETF inflows of $64 million hint at a potential XRP–BTC decoupling if institutional demand persists.
• A sustained breakout above $2.0 could reverse XRP’s 16% H2 decline and reopen upside targets at $2.5 and $3.0.

XRP continues to trade below the $2.0 psychological level, but the broader price structure remains constructive despite ongoing pressure from Bitcoin and bearish technical signals. While short-term momentum has softened, sustained institutional demand through XRP-spot ETFs and renewed optimism around U.S. crypto legislation are preventing deeper losses and keeping the medium-term outlook intact.

Bitcoin’s weakness has capped upside across the crypto market, yet XRP is beginning to show early signs of divergence as ETF inflows persist even during broader risk-off phases.

ETF Flows Highlight Growing XRP–Bitcoin Divergence

Bitcoin remains a dominant influence on XRP price action, but recent ETF data suggests that relationship may be weakening. In the week ending December 26, U.S. XRP-spot ETFs recorded $64 million in net inflows, extending their streak to seven consecutive weeks. Over the same period, U.S. Bitcoin-spot ETFs posted $589 million in net outflows, reflecting waning institutional appetite for BTC in the near term.

Despite this demand, XRP closed the week lower, highlighting that ETF inflows have not yet translated into a meaningful supply-demand shift. Bitcoin continues to dictate broader sentiment, especially during periods of market stress, leaving XRP more exposed to downside volatility.

Still, the persistence of XRP inflows during Bitcoin weakness strengthens the case for a delayed but meaningful decoupling.

Legislative Momentum and Utility Support a Structural Repricing

Progress toward crypto-friendly regulation remains one of the most important catalysts for XRP. Earlier this year, the passage of the Market Structure Bill in the U.S. House triggered a sharp XRP rally, underscoring how sensitive the token is to regulatory clarity. Delays caused by the government shutdown reversed much of that optimism, contributing to XRP’s 16% decline in the second half of 2025.

If the Senate advances the bill in early 2026, XRP stands to benefit disproportionately. Regulatory clarity would reinforce XRP’s non-security status, validate its real-world utility, and expand institutional access through ETF products and treasury use cases.

Institutional interest also remains selective. Large-cap assets with liquidity, regulatory clarity, and defined use cases are expected to lead inflows — characteristics that position XRP favorably relative to smaller altcoins.

Short-, Medium-, and Long-Term XRP Outlook

Despite near-term volatility, the broader outlook remains constructive.

• Short term (1–4 weeks): XRP faces resistance below $2.0 but remains supported above $1.75. A cautious bullish bias remains intact.
• Medium term (4–8 weeks): A sustained break above $2.0 would likely open the path toward $2.5, particularly if ETF inflows persist.
• Longer term (8–12 weeks): Improving macro conditions and legislative progress could support a move toward $3.0.

Failure to reclaim $2.0 would keep XRP range-bound, but the absence of heavy ETF outflows limits downside risk.

Technical Structure Still Fragile but Stabilizing

XRP remains below both the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, confirming a bearish technical bias in the short term. However, price action has stabilized above key support, suggesting sellers are losing momentum.

Key levels to watch:

• Support: $1.75, then $1.50
• Resistance: $2.0, $2.5, $3.0, $3.66
• 50-day EMA: $2.06
• 200-day EMA: $2.37

A clean breakout above $2.0 would shift momentum decisively and bring the 50-day EMA into focus. Rejection at that level would delay, but not invalidate, the broader bullish structure.

What Could Derail the Bullish XRP Outlook

Several risks remain on the horizon:

• A hawkish Bank of Japan neutral rate triggering yen carry trade unwinds
• U.S. data reducing expectations for a March Fed rate cut
• XRP-spot ETF outflows
• Delays or rejection of U.S. crypto legislation
• MSCI removing digital asset treasury exposure

Any of these could push XRP back toward $1.75 and reintroduce downside momentum.

Outlook: XRP’s Inflection Point Approaches

XRP remains caught between bearish technicals and strengthening fundamentals. ETF inflows, legislative momentum, and growing institutional interest continue to build beneath the surface, even as Bitcoin weakness suppresses short-term price action.

A confirmed break above $2.0 would likely mark the beginning of a broader trend reversal. Until then, XRP remains in accumulation mode, with medium-term upside scenarios firmly in play.

XRP Frequently Asked Questions

Why is XRP underperforming despite strong ETF inflows?

Bitcoin continues to dominate market sentiment. While XRP-spot ETFs show strong demand, BTC weakness limits broader risk appetite, delaying XRP’s upside response.

Can XRP decouple from Bitcoin?

Yes. Persistent ETF inflows during BTC outflows suggest early decoupling signs. Regulatory clarity and increased utility would accelerate this process.

What level must XRP reclaim to turn bullish?

A sustained move above $2.0 is critical. It would shift momentum, invalidate the current bearish structure, and open the path toward $2.5.

Are XRP-spot ETFs enough to drive price higher?

Not alone. ETF inflows help absorb supply, but price acceleration typically requires a supportive macro environment and positive regulatory developments.

What is the biggest risk to XRP’s bullish outlook?

A hawkish global central bank shift or delays in U.S. crypto legislation could undermine sentiment and push XRP back toward key support.

For more daily crypto forecasts and expert technical analysis on assets like XRP, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), visit our Cryptocurrency Forecasts section and stay ahead of market moves.