$1.7B Bitcoin Bet Targets $100K Year-End Rally Without Pushing New ATHs

What to Know

• A $1.7B Bitcoin options bet targets a rally above $100K by year-end.
• The strategy uses a long-dated call condor with four strike prices.
• Profits are expected if BTC finishes between $106K and $112K, capping gains above $118K.
• Spot ETFs are seeing outflows despite the ongoing Bitcoin rebound.
• The trade highlights nuanced, large-scale institutional strategies rather than speculative bets.

Block Trader Bets $1.7B on Measured Bitcoin Rally

On Monday, a significant block trade signaled renewed optimism for Bitcoin’s year-end price trajectory. A trader executed a long-dated call condor options strategy worth roughly 20,000 BTC in notional value, or $1.76 billion, betting on a continued rebound to above $100,000 without pushing to fresh all-time highs.

Bitcoin (BTC), currently trading near $87,000, has rebounded from last week’s lows around $80,000. The bounce has been partially fueled by renewed expectations of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut in December, although institutional appetite for spot ETFs has yet to pick up. On Monday alone, the 11 spot-listed Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $151 million, according to SoSoValue.

Read more: Why the SEC Dropping Crypto from Its 2026 Exam Priorities Is a Big Deal and Why It’s Risky | Opinion

Understanding the Call Condor Strategy

The trader’s approach involved a four-legged call condor with the following structure:

• Buy one call at $100K
• Sell two calls at $106K and $112K
• Buy one call at $118K

This setup allows the trader to profit if BTC ends the year between the middle strikes of $106K and $112K. Gains are capped above $118K, signaling a structured, measured bullish outlook rather than an expectation of an explosive breakout past prior all-time highs near $126K.

In essence, this trade shows that sophisticated investors are betting on a controlled year-end rally while avoiding the risk of overstretching price expectations.

Spot ETFs Lag Despite BTC Rebound

Despite the large block trade signaling bullish sentiment among seasoned traders, spot-listed ETFs have yet to mirror this optimism. Monday’s data revealed net outflows totaling $151 million across 11 ETFs. This indicates that, while advanced trading strategies are in play, broader institutional adoption is still cautious, and traditional ETF inflows have not fully returned.

Why Block Trades Matter

Block trades are large-scale orders executed privately between two parties to minimize market impact. Often facilitated by specialized platforms, these trades allow institutional investors and high-net-worth traders to manage significant positions efficiently without disrupting the market price.

The $1.7B Bitcoin trade underscores the growing sophistication of market participants. Rather than simple directional bets on price, these investors are calibrating their expectations for a measured rally, demonstrating a nuanced approach to managing risk and potential returns.

Outlook: A Controlled Year-End Rally

This block trade suggests that advanced traders anticipate a year-end rally but within defined limits. BTC may climb above $100K and potentially reach the $106K–$112K range, but traders are not positioning for record-breaking highs above $126K.

For the broader market, the move highlights an emerging distinction between highly sophisticated, large-scale strategies and retail or ETF-driven demand. If BTC maintains momentum, it could set the stage for a steady, manageable rally heading into year-end, with large traders carefully managing exposure along the way.