What to Know

  • Bitcoin traded near $80,400 after dipping to around $79,300 during the Asian morning, leaving it little changed since midnight UTC.
  • Ether slipped 0.2%, while the DeFi index was the only CoinDesk index to gain.
  • Uniswap rose 1.9% and ethena gained around 1%, despite Maelstrom selling 323,000 UNI and 14 million ENA over the weekend.
  • The Federal Reserve, which raised interest rates in September, is due to decide again on Wednesday.
  • CME’s FedWatch tool showed a 90% chance of no change at the upcoming decision and around an 80% chance of another increase in December.
  • U.S. crude fell around 2% to near $101 a barrel, while Brent slipped to around $110.
  • Spot bitcoin ETF flows stayed under scrutiny after $138 million of outflows on Friday, bringing the two-day exit to $772 million.
  • Crypto futures positioning looked restrained, with open interest rising 0.85% to $139.9 billion over 24 hours while volume fell 1.78%.
  • Liquidations dropped 71% to $153 million, and the long/short taker volume ratio was almost balanced at 50.34% to 49.66%.

Bitcoin steadies as macro caution dominates

Bitcoin held near $80,400 in early trading after briefly falling to around $79,300 during the Asian morning, a move that left the largest cryptocurrency little changed since midnight UTC. The muted action reflected a market waiting for fresh direction from macro events, especially the Federal Reserve decision due Wednesday, while also processing softer oil prices and recent outflows from spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds.

The tone across digital assets was mixed rather than decisively bearish or bullish. Bitcoin’s ability to remain near the $80,000 area suggested that buyers were still defending the market after the Asian-session dip, but the lack of follow-through also showed that traders were reluctant to push aggressively higher before the policy decision. Ether slipped 0.2%, reinforcing the sense of hesitation across major tokens.

Market participants are also weighing whether recent risk reduction by high-profile crypto investors signals a broader defensive turn. Arthur Hayes said over the weekend that his Maelstrom fund sold its entire directional book, including 6,400 ether, citing macro and geopolitical risk. That sale added to caution, though some DeFi tokens still managed to rise, showing that positioning was not uniformly weak across the crypto market.

DeFi tokens outperform while altcoins split

The DeFi index was the only CoinDesk index to gain, making decentralized-finance-linked assets one of the few pockets of resilience. Uniswap rose 1.9%, while ethena gained around 1%, even after Maelstrom sold 323,000 UNI and 14 million ENA on Saturday. The price action suggested that buyers were willing to absorb the headline and that some traders continued to look for relative strength outside bitcoin and ether.

ENA’s move stood out in derivatives markets as well. Open interest rose 16.85% over 24 hours alongside an 8.36% price gain, while volume increased 81.51%. That combination usually indicates that fresh positioning entered the market during the rally. However, the past hour showed a 2.04% fall in open interest, suggesting that some of the money that chased the move had started to exit.

Other altcoin themes were less constructive. AI-linked tokens lagged more broadly, with grass, a data network for AI training, dropping 2.7%, while near lost 1.4%. Those moves coincided with Elon Musk’s Sunday warning that lenders had shut off credit to the 200 or so AI-only cloud providers. While the comment did not target every AI-linked crypto project directly, it added to the cautious backdrop around the broader AI infrastructure trade.

Hyperliquid rose around 1% as traders continued to digest Friday’s decision by Hyperliquid Strategies, the Nasdaq-listed company that holds the token, to more than triple its share buyback to $100 million. The buyback applies to PURR stock only, but the development still remained part of the discussion around HYPE because of the company’s token holdings and the wider market’s focus on balance-sheet-driven crypto exposure.

Fed decision keeps traders defensive

The Federal Reserve remains central to the market narrative. The central bank raised interest rates in September and is scheduled to decide again on Wednesday. CME’s FedWatch tool showed a 90% chance of no change at the upcoming meeting, while pricing also reflected around an 80% chance of another increase in December. That mix leaves traders balancing the possibility of a near-term pause against the risk that tighter policy could still return before year-end.

For bitcoin and other risk assets, the Fed outlook matters because interest-rate expectations influence liquidity, risk appetite and the relative appeal of speculative assets. A no-change decision could calm markets if policymakers avoid signaling an aggressive path ahead. However, the elevated probability assigned to a later increase means investors may remain cautious even if Wednesday brings no immediate rate move.

Traditional markets also reflected a tentative risk tone. S&P 500 index futures rose around 0.3% after Friday’s selloff in U.S. stocks. That modest rebound offered some support for sentiment, though it was not strong enough to produce a broad rally across crypto majors. Bitcoin’s flat trading near $80,400 and ether’s slight decline suggested that crypto traders were waiting for more than a small bounce in equity futures before adding risk.

Oil retreats as geopolitical premium eases

Oil prices moved lower, with U.S. crude falling around 2% to near $101 a barrel and Brent slipping to around $110. The retreat came as Qatari mediators arrived in Tehran on Sunday and President Donald Trump said there would be no strike that day, while keeping the option open. The move lower in crude suggested that some immediate geopolitical premium was easing, though uncertainty remained unresolved.

Lower oil prices can matter for crypto markets indirectly. Energy prices affect inflation expectations, and inflation expectations shape how investors think about central-bank policy. If oil retreats further, some traders may see reduced pressure on inflation. However, because geopolitical risk has not disappeared and the Fed’s future path remains uncertain, crypto markets did not respond with a decisive risk-on move.

Crude derivatives positioning also showed pressure. Crude was the only top-20 market with negative funding, at minus 0.0077%. The price fell 1.55% while open interest dropped 7.37%, indicating that money left as the price declined. Volume jumped 190.88%, and the remaining positions leaned short. That mix pointed to active repositioning rather than a quiet drift lower.

ETF outflows remain a key bitcoin watchpoint

Spot bitcoin ETF flows continued to draw attention after $138 million of outflows on Friday, bringing the two-day exit to $772 million. ETF flows have become one of the most closely monitored gauges of institutional demand because they show whether regulated vehicles are attracting or losing capital during periods of market stress.

Outflows do not automatically determine bitcoin’s direction, but sustained exits can weigh on sentiment, especially when they occur alongside macro uncertainty. In this case, bitcoin’s ability to remain near $80,400 despite the two-day exit showed some resilience. Still, traders are likely to watch whether the outflow streak continues or stabilizes around the Fed decision.

Derivatives show balanced positioning

Crypto futures markets showed limited directional conviction. Open interest rose 0.85% to $139.9 billion over 24 hours, while volume fell 1.78%. Liquidations dropped 71% to $153 million, a sign that forced unwinds were less intense than in more volatile sessions. The long/short taker volume ratio split of 50.34% to 49.66% showed no major tilt between bullish and bearish market orders.

Bitcoin positioning was similarly quiet. BTC rose 0.20% while open interest increased 0.84%, implying that only a small amount of fresh money entered the market. Volume fell 7.21%, reinforcing the picture of a market taking a breather. Ether looked much the same, with open interest up 0.45% while price added 0.23%.

Funding was mildly positive across major cryptocurrencies, with no obvious crowded corner. The 24-hour heatmap for major cryptocurrencies was broadly green, while USDE and TRX sat at the low end. Nobody appeared to be paying a heavy premium to hold long positions, meaning leverage demand was not unusually stretched.

ZEC attracted fresh interest as price and open interest rose together. Open interest increased 8.17% while price advanced 3.84%, suggesting roughly 4% of new money came in. Volume rose 19.11%, and funding of 0.0063% remained modest, meaning the new positions were not expensive to hold. Market-order flow was mixed, with positive OI-normalized cumulative volume delta for XMR, ZEC, GRAM, CC and SOL, while DOGE, LINK, HYPE and XLM showed negative readings.

Options traders still favor downside protection

Bitcoin options markets continued to show demand for puts. The busiest contract was the Oct. 28 $77,000 put, ahead of the Oct. 28 $84,000 call. The one-month skew fell to about 12.5% from about 14.5%, meaning puts still cost more than calls, although the premium was lower than a day earlier. That indicates traders were still paying up for downside protection, but less aggressively than before.

Ether options told a similar story. Four of the top six contracts were puts, led by the Oct. 29 $2,000 strike. The one-week skew dropped to about 8.7% from about 13.3%, again showing that puts remained more expensive than calls, though by a smaller margin. The options market therefore continued to lean cautious even as spot prices avoided a deeper slide.

Altcoin season gauge cools

CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season index stood at 53/100, down from 58 on Friday. The decline suggested that altcoin momentum had cooled, even though selective pockets such as DeFi continued to attract buyers. For traders, that makes market selection increasingly important, as broad altcoin exposure may behave differently from stronger individual themes.

FXCOINZ market coverage points to a crypto market in wait-and-see mode: bitcoin is stable near $80,400, DeFi tokens are outperforming, ETF outflows remain a headwind and derivatives positioning is not strongly one-sided. The next major catalyst is the Fed decision, with traders watching whether policymakers validate current expectations for no change or shift attention more firmly toward the possibility of another increase in December.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Where is bitcoin trading now?

Bitcoin was trading near $80,400 after dipping to around $79,300 during the Asian morning, leaving it little changed since midnight UTC.

Why is the Federal Reserve decision important for bitcoin?

The Fed decision matters because interest-rate expectations influence liquidity and risk appetite. CME’s FedWatch tool showed a 90% chance of no change on Wednesday and around an 80% chance of another increase in December.

How did ether perform compared with bitcoin?

Ether slipped 0.2%, while bitcoin was little changed near $80,400. Ether derivatives also showed only modest changes in price and open interest.

Which crypto sector outperformed?

The DeFi index was the only CoinDesk index to gain. Uniswap rose 1.9%, while ethena gained around 1% despite weekend token sales by Maelstrom.

What happened with spot bitcoin ETF flows?

Spot bitcoin ETF flows remained in focus after $138 million of outflows on Friday, bringing the two-day exit to $772 million.

What did derivatives positioning show?

Crypto futures positioning was balanced. Open interest rose 0.85% to $139.9 billion over 24 hours, volume fell 1.78%, and the long/short taker volume ratio was 50.34% to 49.66%.

Are traders still buying downside protection?

Yes. Bitcoin puts still cost more than calls, with the one-month skew near 12.5% after falling from about 14.5%. Ether puts also dominated trading volume among the most active contracts.

Why did oil prices matter for crypto sentiment?

Oil prices can influence inflation expectations, which feed into central-bank policy expectations. U.S. crude fell around 2% to near $101 a barrel, while Brent slipped to around $110.

What does the Altcoin Season index show?

CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season index stood at 53/100, down from 58 on Friday, indicating that broader altcoin momentum had cooled even as some DeFi tokens gained.