Bitcoin’s Split From Record-High Stocks May Not Last as AI Rotation and Halving Cycle Shape Market

What to Know

• Bitcoin is trading just below the $62,000 mark after a lackluster year, even as U.S. equities have reached record highs.
• The cryptocurrency is down over 50% from its peak price in October, creating a notable gap between digital assets and the broader risk rally.
• Hashdex’s Samir Kerbage argues that artificial intelligence, IPO pipelines and macro positioning around rate expectations are absorbing capital that might otherwise flow into crypto.
• Crypto’s underlying usage has continued to expand, with stablecoin transaction volume in the first half of the year already exceeding all of 2025.
• Tokenized real-world assets have grown more than 60% year to date, while crypto ecosystem transactions reached record highs during the second quarter.
• Charles Schwab’s Jim Ferraioli says bitcoin’s recovery remains broadly consistent with prior post-halving cycles.
• Ferraioli estimates that production costs for less efficient miners are roughly $95,000, while the average investor cost basis is near $80,000.
• Market participants see those levels as potential areas of selling pressure if holders seek to exit after recovering losses.

Bitcoin Lags as Stocks Ride the AI Trade

Bitcoin’s recent underperformance has become one of the more visible divergences across global risk assets. While U.S. technology shares have benefited from enthusiasm around artificial intelligence, the world’s largest cryptocurrency has struggled to rebuild momentum and remains just below the $62,000 mark. That leaves BTC down over 50% from its peak price in October, even as equity benchmarks have moved to record highs.

For crypto investors, the gap has been especially frustrating because bitcoin is often treated as a high-beta expression of global liquidity, risk appetite and technology adoption. In earlier cycles, strong demand for growth-oriented assets often supported digital assets as well. This year, however, capital has concentrated heavily in AI infrastructure plays, public offering pipelines and positioning tied to rate expectations, leaving crypto markets with less of the narrative force that has historically driven major upside phases.

Samir Kerbage, chief investment officer at Hashdex, framed the weakness as a question of attention rather than a breakdown in the digital asset thesis. His view is that capital follows dominant market stories, and the dominant story has shifted toward artificial intelligence. Crypto has benefited from similar waves of attention in the past, but the current allocation cycle has favored AI-linked equities and related macro trades.

Capital Rotation Does Not Necessarily Mean Crypto Deterioration

The distinction matters because price weakness can be interpreted in very different ways. A falling or stagnant bitcoin price may suggest deteriorating conviction if network usage, institutional access and regulatory progress are weakening at the same time. But the market picture outlined by Hashdex points to a more complicated backdrop: prices remain subdued even as several structural indicators continue to improve.

Institutional infrastructure around crypto has continued to expand across banks, brokers and payment providers. That development is important because bitcoin and the broader digital asset market have increasingly depended on reliable custody, trading, settlement and compliance systems to attract larger pools of capital. The expansion of this infrastructure does not automatically create immediate buying pressure, but it can deepen the foundation for future participation when investor attention returns.

Regulatory clarity in the United States has also improved, with the potential for further progress if Congress passes the CLARITY Act this summer. For institutional investors, legal and compliance uncertainty has often been a major obstacle to deeper involvement in digital assets. Any movement toward clearer rules can reduce friction, even if markets do not immediately price that development into BTC.

On-Chain Activity Points to a Wider Fundamental Gap

One of the strongest arguments against treating bitcoin’s weakness as a simple deterioration story is the continued growth in crypto usage. Stablecoin transaction volume in the first half of the year has already exceeded all of 2025, underscoring how dollar-linked tokens remain a major source of activity across crypto rails. Stablecoins are widely used for settlement, trading, payments and cross-border transfers, making their transaction growth a meaningful signal for the broader ecosystem.

Tokenized real-world assets have also grown more than 60% year to date. This area has become a key theme for institutions exploring blockchain-based settlement, collateral management and asset issuance. Tokenization does not always translate directly into bitcoin demand, but it can strengthen the broader case for blockchain infrastructure by showing that traditional assets can be represented and moved on-chain.

Hashdex also noted that crypto ecosystem transactions reached record highs during the second quarter. That creates a notable contrast with market capitalization, which has not kept pace with on-chain activity. Kerbage described the gap between market value and network fundamentals as unusually wide, suggesting that a disconnect of this scale may be difficult to sustain indefinitely if usage continues to expand.

For FXCOINZ readers, the key takeaway is that bitcoin’s price action is not moving in isolation from the rest of the crypto economy. BTC remains the flagship asset, but the broader ecosystem includes stablecoins, tokenized assets, payment networks and financial infrastructure. If those components continue to grow while prices lag, some market participants may begin to view the current environment as a valuation gap rather than a permanent decoupling.

Schwab Sees a Familiar Post-Halving Pattern

Charles Schwab’s digital asset view arrives at a similar conclusion from a different angle. Rather than focusing mainly on capital rotation into AI, Schwab’s director of digital currencies research and strategy, Jim Ferraioli, examined bitcoin’s historical market cycles. His argument is that bitcoin’s prolonged recovery is broadly consistent with previous post-halving periods, even if many investors believed institutional adoption and spot exchange-traded funds would permanently alter the familiar cycle.

Bitcoin halvings reduce the pace at which new BTC enters circulation through mining rewards. In market lore, that supply shift has often been associated with major cycle narratives, even though the timing and magnitude of price responses have varied. Ferraioli stopped short of describing the four-year cycle as a market law, but he argued that the so-called bitcoin halving cycle has become embedded in investor psychology.

That psychology can influence behavior even when the mechanical effect of each halving becomes less dramatic over time. Traders, miners and long-term holders often anchor expectations around prior cycles, which can shape when they buy, hold or sell. As bitcoin matures and volatility declines, the impact of each cycle may diminish, but the pattern can still matter if enough participants continue to act around it.

Cost Basis Levels Could Shape the Next Phase

Ferraioli highlighted two price levels that may help explain why bitcoin has struggled to accelerate. He estimates that bitcoin has historically taken more than a year after bear market bottoms to reclaim levels above the production costs of less efficient miners, which he currently places at roughly $95,000. That level can matter because miners with higher operating costs may face pressure when prices remain below their break-even zones.

He also noted that the average investor’s cost basis sits near $80,000. That figure is important because it may create potential selling pressure as holders who have been underwater look to exit positions once losses are recovered. In many markets, prior cost basis zones can become resistance because investors use rebounds to reduce exposure after a difficult drawdown.

Technical traders often monitor these areas not because they guarantee a reversal, but because they represent potential concentrations of supply. If BTC moves toward levels where large groups of holders can sell at break-even, the market may need stronger demand to absorb that supply. Conversely, a decisive move through such zones could signal that buyers are strong enough to overcome overhead resistance.

Why the Disconnect May Be Temporary

The case for bitcoin’s disconnect from record-high stocks eventually narrowing rests on two overlapping ideas. The first is that capital rotation is cyclical. AI-linked assets have commanded attention, but market leadership can shift as valuations, earnings expectations and macro conditions evolve. If investor focus broadens beyond the AI trade, digital assets could again compete for risk capital.

The second is that bitcoin may still be working through a recognizable post-halving recovery structure. If the market is following a slower cycle rather than entering a new bearish regime, subdued performance below the $62,000 mark may be less surprising. That does not mean a recovery is guaranteed, but it does suggest the current lag can be interpreted within a historical framework rather than as a complete break from bitcoin’s prior behavior.

Still, the outlook remains conditional. BTC would likely need improved flows, stronger sentiment and the ability to absorb selling near major cost basis zones before a durable recovery becomes clearer. Institutional infrastructure, regulatory clarity and on-chain activity may support the long-term thesis, but price confirmation remains essential for traders focused on market timing.

For now, FXCOINZ sees a market caught between weak headline performance and improving ecosystem fundamentals. Bitcoin’s failure to match record equity highs has raised questions, yet the combination of AI-driven capital rotation, growing blockchain usage and a familiar post-halving rhythm suggests the divergence may not be permanent. The next test is whether renewed demand can bridge the gap between network activity and market price.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Why is bitcoin underperforming while stocks are at record highs?

Bitcoin is lagging partly because investor attention has shifted toward artificial intelligence, technology stocks, IPO pipelines and macro positioning around rate expectations. Those themes have absorbed capital that might otherwise have flowed into digital assets.

Where is bitcoin trading now?

Bitcoin is trading just below the $62,000 mark. It remains down over 50% from its peak price in October, despite strength in U.S. equities.

Does weak bitcoin price action mean crypto fundamentals are weakening?

Not necessarily. Crypto usage indicators have continued to grow, including stablecoin transaction volume, tokenized real-world assets and broader ecosystem transactions. That creates a gap between market price and network activity.

What happened with stablecoin transaction volume?

Stablecoin transaction volume in the first half of the year has already exceeded all of 2025. This suggests that blockchain-based settlement and dollar-linked token activity remain strong even while BTC price momentum is subdued.

How much have tokenized real-world assets grown?

Tokenized real-world assets have grown more than 60% year to date. This area is closely watched because it connects blockchain networks with traditional financial assets and institutional use cases.

What is the bitcoin halving cycle?

The bitcoin halving cycle refers to the market pattern associated with scheduled reductions in new BTC issuance through mining rewards. Some market participants believe this cycle continues to influence investor psychology, even if its impact may fade as bitcoin matures.

Why does the $95,000 level matter?

Jim Ferraioli estimates that roughly $95,000 represents the production costs of less efficient miners. Historically, bitcoin has taken more than a year after bear market bottoms to reclaim levels above that type of cost threshold.

Why is the $80,000 level important?

The average investor cost basis is near $80,000. If bitcoin approaches that area, some holders may sell after recovering losses, creating potential selling pressure that the market would need to absorb.

Could bitcoin reconnect with the broader risk rally?

It could, but the outcome is not guaranteed. A reconnection would likely require renewed crypto flows, stronger sentiment and the ability to move through key cost basis levels while broader on-chain activity remains supportive.

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