Prediction Markets Top $50 Billion as World Cup Trading Challenges Sportsbooks

What to Know

• Prediction market platforms Kalshi, Polymarket and Rothera combined for more than $50 billion in monthly notional volume as the 2026 FIFA World Cup began.
• Kalshi recorded $31 billion in total notional trading volume in June, up more than 70% from May, with sports contracts representing around 85% of activity.
• Kalshi said World Cup-specific volume on its platform reached $22.42 billion, while its World Cup markets generated $7.4 billion in June before the group rounds were complete.
• Polymarket’s international exchange reached $10.8 billion in monthly volume, while its regulated U.S. platform logged $3.5 billion, nearly double May’s total.
• Rothera, a joint venture between Robinhood and Susquehanna International Group, processed $2 billion in its debut month and captured 7% of the U.S. prediction market.
• U.S. legal sportsbooks were projected to handle between $2.8 billion and $4.3 billion across the tournament’s 104 matches, while global World Cup wagering is projected to exceed $50 billion.
• Kalshi and Polymarket together represented 78.5% of betting app installs across six major platforms tracked through June, compared with roughly 6% a year earlier.
• Kalshi’s female users grew 106% during the tournament, more than twice the 54% growth rate among male users, lifting female share to 33.3% by late June.
• Institutional trading firms are increasingly treating prediction markets as financial derivatives, with dedicated desks and cross-platform arbitrage strategies emerging.

Prediction Markets Break Into the World Cup Mainstream

Prediction markets moved from niche trading venues to a central World Cup storyline as Kalshi, Polymarket and Rothera recorded a combined breakout that challenged the long-standing dominance of traditional sportsbooks. The first month of the 2026 FIFA World Cup delivered more than $50 billion in monthly notional volume across the leading platforms, turning event contracts into one of the most closely watched corners of the betting and trading landscape.

The shift is significant because prediction markets are not structured like standard sportsbook wagers. Instead of simply placing a bet with a bookmaker, users buy and sell contracts tied to the outcome of real-world events. Prices can move continuously as information changes, and traders can enter or exit positions before final settlement. That structure makes the products look more like financial derivatives than conventional sports bets, especially when liquidity is deep enough for active market-making and arbitrage.

Kalshi led the surge with $31 billion in total notional trading volume in June, marking a more than 70% increase from May. Sports contracts accounted for around 85% of its trading activity, underscoring how the World Cup became the platform’s defining growth catalyst. Kalshi said World Cup-specific volume reached $22.42 billion, and its World Cup markets alone generated $7.4 billion in June before the group rounds had been completed.

Polymarket and Rothera Add to the Record Month

Polymarket also set new highs during the tournament. Its international exchange posted $10.8 billion in overall monthly trading volume, while its regulated U.S. platform logged $3.5 billion, nearly double May’s total. The split between the global exchange and the U.S. app remains important because the two products operate under different rules, funding methods and access conditions.

Rothera added another major data point to the market’s rapid expansion. The platform, launched in June as a joint venture between Robinhood and Susquehanna International Group, processed $2 billion in notional volume in its first month. It also captured 7% of the U.S. prediction market on debut, a notable entrance for a new venue built through Robinhood’s January acquisition of exchange operator MIAXdx. Robinhood routed World Cup contracts through Rothera from day one, immediately placing the platform in front of a large retail trading audience.

The timing of Rothera’s launch shows how major financial and trading firms are positioning for prediction markets to become a lasting asset class rather than a temporary World Cup novelty. Susquehanna’s involvement also highlights the appeal for sophisticated market participants accustomed to pricing risk, managing spreads and operating in fast-moving derivatives environments.

Traditional Sportsbooks Still Set Records, But the Field Has Changed

Traditional sportsbooks also benefited from the tournament. U.S. legal sportsbooks were projected to handle between $2.8 billion and $4.3 billion across the tournament’s 104 matches, and operators indicated that activity exceeded even optimistic internal expectations. Final state-level reporting had not yet fully arrived, but early signals suggested the World Cup produced record-type handle across major books.

The U.S. team’s round-of-16 match against Belgium became the most-bet soccer game in the history of several major American books. BetMGM said the match drew more bets than any 2026 College Football Playoff game except the championship, as well as more than the men’s college basketball final or any title-series game from the NBA, NHL or MLB. DraftKings reported handle running at approximately five times its 2022 levels.

Several conditions supported that outcome. Legal mobile sports betting is now available in 39 states, compared with 19 in 2022. North American hosting created prime-time kickoffs for domestic audiences. The U.S. team’s run to the round of 16 generated broad interest in a sport that has often struggled to sustain betting attention in the American market. Caesars said 81% of handle on the U.S. knockout match was on the Americans to advance.

Even with those sportsbook records, the broader story changed. Prediction markets were no longer a side channel. They became major venues in their own right, with enough volume to produce prices that experienced traders considered credible. Market participants also watched the near-identical World Cup winner odds across Kalshi, Polymarket and major sportsbooks, viewing that alignment as evidence of efficient arbitrage between venues.

Kalshi’s User Growth Signals a Broader Audience

Kalshi’s growth was not limited to volume. App data showed that by June 30, Kalshi’s daily active users were 36% above their June 15 level. Over the same period, DraftKings declined 36% from its tournament peak, FanDuel dropped 41%, and BetMGM and Caesars each fell 32%. Traditional sportsbook apps spiked early and faded, while prediction market activity built steadily through the month.

Kalshi and Polymarket together accounted for 78.5% of betting app installs across six major platforms tracked through June. A year earlier, the two prediction market platforms represented roughly 6% of the same audience. That dramatic change suggests the World Cup did not merely amplify existing users; it introduced prediction markets to a much wider consumer base.

The demographic data was especially notable. Kalshi’s female users increased 106% during the tournament, compared with 54% growth among male users. By late June, 33.3% of Kalshi’s user base was female, compared with 22 to 23% for DraftKings and FanDuel. Kalshi attributed at least some of the growth to interest around the reality television program Love Island, while some of the surge was tied to World Cup markets.

The platform’s visibility also improved beyond trading and betting circles. Kalshi appeared among brands gaining the most consumer momentum during the World Cup, standing alongside names such as Coca-Cola, Pepsi and Visa. It also outranked Fox, the tournament’s primary broadcaster, in that consumer momentum ranking. For a prediction market platform, that kind of mainstream recognition marked a major brand breakthrough.

Polymarket’s U.S. Access Story Remains Complex

Polymarket’s position in the United States has evolved from a straightforward restriction into a more layered market structure. The company was fined $1.4 million by the CFTC in 2022 for operating unregistered event-based derivatives and agreed at that time to stop serving U.S. customers. In late 2025, it returned through a regulated route after acquiring a CFTC-licensed exchange for $112 million, receiving an Amended Order of Designation from the regulator in November and launching a U.S. iOS app in December. The waitlist was removed in May 2026.

Americans can now use Polymarket legally through the regulated U.S. product, but that app differs substantially from the global platform. The U.S. version requires full identity verification, uses registered futures commission merchants for funding and settles in U.S. dollars. The global platform remains geoblocked for U.S. IP addresses, has no identity checks, settles in USDC and offers a wider range of markets.

Onchain analysis firm Allium found that U.S.-linked wallets traded $571 million on Polymarket’s political markets over the past year, more than any other country, ahead of Hong Kong’s $422 million. That activity referred to the global platform and reflected wallet behavior rather than IP addresses, meaning virtual private networks could obscure location access while transaction patterns still showed U.S.-linked footprints.

Wall Street Treats Event Contracts Like Derivatives

The World Cup also accelerated institutional interest. DRW, the Chicago-based trading firm, has been building a dedicated prediction market desk targeting Polymarket and Kalshi. The approach applies cross-platform arbitrage techniques commonly used in derivatives markets, where traders look for pricing gaps across venues and move capital to close them.

That institutional participation matters because it can deepen liquidity, tighten spreads and improve market efficiency. Prediction markets have long faced criticism for thin liquidity, especially outside major political cycles or headline events. The World Cup showed that large sports markets can attract enough volume to support active trading strategies and credible pricing signals.

For traditional sportsbooks, the rise of prediction markets creates a strategic challenge. Sportsbooks typically manage customer bets, set lines and earn through hold. Prediction markets operate as exchanges, where participants trade with one another and prices update through supply and demand. As more users become comfortable with event contracts, the boundary between wagering, trading and hedging may continue to blur.

The User Flow Question

One of the most important signs from the tournament was the direction of user flow. App data indicated that sportsbook users increasingly sampled Kalshi during the World Cup, while the share of Kalshi users opening sportsbook apps declined. That pattern complicates the idea that prediction markets will simply serve as a feeder into traditional sports betting.

Instead, Kalshi users appeared to remain inside the prediction market ecosystem. If that behavior continues beyond the World Cup, sportsbooks may face a new form of competition from platforms that offer not only sports contracts but also markets tied to elections, economic data, entertainment and other real-world outcomes. Kalshi and Polymarket both carry contracts beyond sports, including political elections, economic releases and reality television outcomes.

The 2026 FIFA World Cup was expected to be a landmark betting event on American soil. What emerged was bigger than a sportsbook boom. Prediction markets used the tournament to demonstrate scale, mainstream appeal and institutional relevance. Whether the momentum persists after the final whistle will depend on liquidity, regulation, user retention and the ability of platforms to keep audiences engaged across non-sports events.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

How much volume did prediction markets record during the World Cup breakout?

Kalshi, Polymarket and Rothera combined for more than $50 billion in monthly notional volume as the first month of the 2026 FIFA World Cup unfolded.

Which platform had the largest volume?

Kalshi led the group with $31 billion in total notional trading volume in June, up more than 70% from May. Sports contracts accounted for around 85% of that activity.

How much World Cup volume did Kalshi generate?

Kalshi said World Cup-specific volume on its platform reached $22.42 billion. Its World Cup markets generated $7.4 billion in June before the group rounds were complete.

What was Polymarket’s monthly volume?

Polymarket’s international exchange reached $10.8 billion in monthly trading volume, while its regulated U.S. platform recorded $3.5 billion, nearly double May’s total.

What is Rothera?

Rothera is a joint venture between Robinhood and Susquehanna International Group. It launched in June, processed $2 billion in its debut month and accounted for 7% of the U.S. prediction market.

Are prediction markets the same as sportsbooks?

No. Sportsbooks generally take bets directly from customers, while prediction markets operate more like exchanges where users buy and sell contracts tied to event outcomes.

Why did female user growth at Kalshi stand out?

Kalshi’s female users grew 106% during the tournament, more than twice the 54% growth rate among male users. By late June, female users represented 33.3% of Kalshi’s user base.

Can Americans use Polymarket legally?

Americans can use Polymarket through its regulated U.S. platform, which requires identity verification, uses registered futures commission merchants for funding and settles in U.S. dollars.

Why are institutional trading firms interested?

Institutional firms see prediction markets as event-based derivatives with opportunities for market-making and arbitrage. Higher liquidity during the World Cup made these venues more attractive to experienced traders.

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