What to Know
- XRP steadied after the Bank of Japan rate hike as fears of a yen carry trade unwind eased.
- XRP-spot ETFs recorded $82 million in weekly inflows, extending the streak to six consecutive weeks.
- Bulls are focused on a breakout above $2, with $2.5–$3 targets gaining traction if ETF demand and U.S. legislation momentum persist.
XRP Holds Firm as Macro Fears Fade
XRP traded in consolidation mode over the weekend after rallying sharply in response to the Bank of Japan’s latest policy move. While the BoJ delivered a long-anticipated 25-basis-point rate hike, its cautious tone reassured markets that policy tightening remains gradual, easing concerns over a disruptive unwind of yen-funded carry trades.
With those fears fading, risk appetite across crypto markets stabilized, allowing XRP to retain most of its recent gains rather than giving them back.
BoJ Decision Calms Markets Rather Than Shocks Them
The BoJ raised rates to 0.75% but emphasized that policy remains well below its estimated neutral range. Importantly, officials avoided signaling an aggressive path toward normalization, leaving room for carry trades to remain attractive — particularly given the still-wide U.S.-Japan rate differential.
Market reactions supported this interpretation. Despite a jump in Japanese government bond yields, the yen weakened rather than strengthened, while Japanese equities moved higher. This combination suggested that capital flows into risk assets remain intact, indirectly supporting crypto demand, including XRP.
ETF Demand Becomes the Dominant XRP Narrative
While macro stability helped, the real support for XRP came from institutional flows. U.S. XRP-spot ETFs recorded approximately $82 million in net inflows over the past week, extending their positive streak to six consecutive weeks.
This steady accumulation stands in contrast to bitcoin ETFs, which experienced significant weekly outflows. The divergence hints at a growing decoupling between XRP and broader crypto benchmarks, driven by XRP’s expanding utility narrative and increasing institutional exposure.
Sustained ETF demand has become a core pillar of the bullish XRP thesis, reinforcing confidence that dips may continue to attract buyers.
Legislative Momentum Adds a Structural Tailwind
Beyond ETFs, developments in U.S. crypto regulation are quietly improving sentiment. Progress on market structure legislation has raised expectations that clearer regulatory frameworks could come into force in 2026.
For XRP, regulatory clarity is especially important, as it would likely broaden institutional participation and strengthen its use as a treasury and settlement asset. Combined with ETF inflows, this creates a more durable demand backdrop than short-term speculative rallies.
Technical Picture: $2 Becomes the Defining Level
From a technical standpoint, XRP remains below its major moving averages, signaling that bearish structure has not yet been fully invalidated. However, fundamentals are beginning to outweigh technical caution.
The $2 level now stands as the critical pivot. A sustained move above this psychological barrier would bring key resistance zones back into focus and open the door to a broader trend shift.
Failure to reclaim $2, on the other hand, could see XRP drift back toward lower support zones as traders reassess momentum.
Outlook: Upside Favored While ETF Flows Hold
As long as ETF inflows persist and macro conditions remain stable, XRP’s short- to medium-term outlook leans bullish. A clean break above $2 would strengthen confidence in higher targets, while deeper pullbacks are likely to attract renewed interest unless fundamentals deteriorate.
Over the coming weeks, ETF flow data, U.S. policy signals, and broader risk sentiment will be decisive in determining whether XRP can transition from consolidation into a sustained uptrend.
Final Takeaway
XRP is entering a pivotal phase. Calmer macro conditions, consistent ETF inflows, and improving regulatory visibility are shifting the balance toward bulls. While technical hurdles remain, the $2 level now represents more than resistance — it’s a potential gateway to a broader trend reversal.
Q&A: What XRP Traders Are Watching
Why is $2 such an important level for XRP?
It is both a psychological barrier and a gateway to reclaiming key technical resistance levels.
Are ETF inflows enough to drive a breakout?
Sustained inflows significantly improve the odds, especially if broader market conditions remain supportive.
What could invalidate the bullish outlook?
ETF outflows, a hawkish shift from major central banks, or setbacks in U.S. crypto legislation.
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