XRP Price Update | Key Fed and U.S.–China Talks Could Spark Next Rally

What to Know

• XRP remains above $2.6, showing strong support despite October losses.
• Fed rate cut expectations and U.S.–China trade talks are key near-term catalysts.
• XRP-spot ETF approvals and institutional adoption could drive the next rally.
• Technical indicators signal a tightening pattern, pointing to a possible breakout soon.

XRP held steady above $2.6 on Tuesday, signaling strong support despite selling pressure, as investors brace for potential catalysts that could drive the token toward $3. The ongoing U.S. government shutdown, approaching its 28th day, has delayed the launch of XRP-spot ETFs, stalling optimism in the market. Meanwhile, expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and upcoming U.S.–China trade talks are adding fuel to potential bullish momentum.

XRP Holds Firm Amid Political and Market Uncertainty

After briefly climbing to $2.6927 on Monday, XRP retraced amid profit-taking and broader market pressure. The token remains resilient, supported by institutional demand and market sentiment, maintaining its $2.6 handle. October has been challenging, with XRP down 7.86%, but the strong support levels indicate underlying bullish pressure.

The prolonged U.S. government shutdown has slowed regulatory approvals, leaving the SEC with limited staff to review XRP-spot ETF applications. Six of seven issuers have already seen their deadlines pass, but market data suggest robust inflows once approvals occur. For instance, the REX-Osprey XRP ETF (XRPR) has reported $124.9 million in net inflows since its September 18 launch, highlighting persistent institutional interest.

Fed Policy and Global Trade Talks as Key Catalysts

Markets are closely watching the Federal Reserve ahead of its rate decision on Wednesday, October 29. A 25-basis-point rate cut is widely expected, with the possibility of an additional cut in December. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s guidance on ending quantitative tightening (QT) will also be critical. Positive signals could increase liquidity and drive demand for risk assets such as XRP.

Simultaneously, President Trump’s anticipated meeting with Chinese President Xi on October 30 could accelerate trade agreements, further supporting XRP’s upside potential. Analysts suggest that if both the Fed’s policy and U.S.–China trade talks align favorably, XRP could reclaim the $2.8–$3.0 range.

Technical Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels

XRP closed Tuesday at $2.6059, above the 200-day EMA but below the 50-day EMA, indicating a near-term bearish bias. Key levels to watch include:

• Support: $2.62, $2.35, $2.2, $2.0, $1.9
• Resistance: $2.8, $3.0, $3.66

The token has formed higher lows recently, with volatility contracting in a tightening triangle pattern, signaling a potential breakout ahead of major economic and political events.

Bullish Scenario

XRP could surge if the Fed signals a December rate cut, ends QT, and U.S.–China trade talks progress positively. Approval of XRP-spot ETFs and institutional adoption as a treasury reserve asset could push XRP toward $2.80–$3.00, with a potential move toward its all-time high of $3.66.

Bearish Scenario

Delays in ETF approvals, a continuation of the government shutdown, or lack of Fed support for liquidity measures could push XRP below $2.62, exposing lower support levels at $2.35 and $2.2.