Bear Market

Bitcoin has closed above its 50-week moving average for the first time in 45 weeks, a technical development widely watched by long-term chart traders. The move has strengthened hopes that the latest bear-market low may already be in place, though the signal depends on BTC holding above the key average in the weeks ahead.

Spot gold is under heavy pressure after falling through its 200-day moving average, a level technical traders now view as potential resistance. A hawkish shift in rate expectations has added momentum to the selloff, with markets repricing the path for policy into September and December.

Spot gold edged lower after failing to extend Wednesday’s powerful advance, with recovering Treasury yields and profit-taking weighing on momentum. Technical traders are watching the 200-day moving average, nearby support, and Fed policy signals for the next directional break.

Bitcoin is trading near $64,000 after spending 307 days inside the $60,000 to $70,000 band, one of the longest range-bound stretches in its history. On-chain data shows a major cost-basis cluster between $58,000 and $64,000, reinforcing why traders are watching current levels closely.

Bitcoin is still trading below several important technical and onchain valuation markers, a sign that buyers have not yet regained control. Historical bear market behavior suggests the next major bottom could come closer to $45,000 if weakness deepens.

Bitcoin’s slide to around $59,100 pushed a record 10.83 million BTC into loss, underscoring how sharply the latest decline has reset market sentiment. Even so, long-term holders now control a record 14.8 million coins, signaling that conviction remains intact despite the drawdown.

Bitcoin’s realized price sits near a level that has historically been lost in major bear markets before a cycle bottom formed. Whale cost bases now cluster in a tight range, highlighting a possible support zone.

Bitcoin’s long-running bear market behavior has repeatedly aligned with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from its 2010 base. If that pattern repeats, prices could revisit the $48,215 area from current levels near $64,000.