Bear Market

Spot gold edged lower after failing to extend Wednesday’s powerful advance, with recovering Treasury yields and profit-taking weighing on momentum. Technical traders are watching the 200-day moving average, nearby support, and Fed policy signals for the next directional break.

Bitcoin is trading near $64,000 after spending 307 days inside the $60,000 to $70,000 band, one of the longest range-bound stretches in its history. On-chain data shows a major cost-basis cluster between $58,000 and $64,000, reinforcing why traders are watching current levels closely.

Bitcoin is still trading below several important technical and onchain valuation markers, a sign that buyers have not yet regained control. Historical bear market behavior suggests the next major bottom could come closer to $45,000 if weakness deepens.

Bitcoin’s slide to around $59,100 pushed a record 10.83 million BTC into loss, underscoring how sharply the latest decline has reset market sentiment. Even so, long-term holders now control a record 14.8 million coins, signaling that conviction remains intact despite the drawdown.

Bitcoin’s realized price sits near a level that has historically been lost in major bear markets before a cycle bottom formed. Whale cost bases now cluster in a tight range, highlighting a possible support zone.

Bitcoin’s long-running bear market behavior has repeatedly aligned with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from its 2010 base. If that pattern repeats, prices could revisit the $48,215 area from current levels near $64,000.