Core Inflation

Bitcoin is again trading about 40% below a major peak as the Federal Reserve restarts rate increases with a 25 basis point move. The comparison with 2022 has traders debating whether a short relief rally could precede deeper pressure if tightening continues.

The European Central Bank is expected to deliver a 25bp increase as euro area inflation pressure remains complicated by energy-market risk. FXCOINZ examines why the Strait of Hormuz, inflation expectations and euro weakness may shape the October and December policy debate.

The European Central Bank is widely expected to raise rates in September as headline inflation accelerates on higher energy costs. The bigger question for markets is whether the move marks the end of tightening or the start of a more restrictive phase.

The US dollar is drawing support from rising short-term Treasury yields as markets reassess the Federal Reserve rate path after Warsh’s speech. Upcoming jobs and inflation data are likely to determine whether the US Dollar Index can challenge the 100 handle or retreat toward 98.

The US dollar is drawing support from rising short-term Treasury yields after Warsh’s speech revived expectations for another Fed rate increase. Upcoming jobs and core inflation data are set to determine whether the dollar index can challenge the 100 handle or retreat toward nearby support.

Japan’s July inflation data strengthened expectations that the Bank of Japan could lift its policy rate in September. Even so, wide rate gaps with the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England may continue to shape the direction of major yen pairs.

Bitcoin remained locked in a nearly two month consolidation as traders awaited the July Federal Reserve interest rate decision. Technical traders are watching whether BTC/USD can clear $66,820 after recovering from this month’s low of $57,200.

The US Dollar Index held near 101.07 as markets assessed FOMC minutes that pointed to sticky core inflation and a cautious Federal Reserve stance. EUR/USD defended the 1.1440 area while GBP/USD held around 1.3388, keeping major pairs locked in two-way technical conditions.