Polymarket

EUR/USD traded near 1.1575 after weak US macroeconomic figures and a sharp rise in long term government bond yields across the United States and Europe. Traders are watching 1.1500 support and 1.1650 resistance as Federal Reserve minutes approach.

South Korea has ordered local access to Polymarket blocked, citing alleged violations tied to gambling activity. The move places the country among a growing group of jurisdictions restricting the prediction market platform.

Crypto startups raised $11.2 billion in the first half of 2026, with disclosed capital flowing toward regulated, permissioned businesses. Payments and stablecoins, prediction markets, and trading platforms led the fundraising as major financial institutions backed licensed market infrastructure.

President Donald Trump is expected to attend a White House innovation meeting with executives from crypto, prediction markets and artificial intelligence. The gathering is set to precede the inaugural event of a new Commodity Futures Trading Commission advisory committee focused on innovation and regulatory priorities.

Kalshi is discussing a funding round of at least $750 million that could value the prediction-market platform at $40 billion. The talks come after a $1 billion raise at a $22 billion valuation in May and as the company weighs a potential IPO in 2027.

AUD/USD has climbed to its highest level since June 17 as markets reassess the outlook for Australian and US interest rates. Traders are watching whether RBA caution and softer US labor data can keep momentum pointed toward 0.7150.

Polymarket is shifting short-dated crypto contracts from single-price snapshots to time-weighted average pricing after complaints and academic research highlighted possible settlement manipulation. The change is designed to make last-second price pushes harder and more expensive in fast-moving bitcoin markets.

Polymarket is reportedly pursuing a new funding round at a $20 billion valuation, months after closing capital at a $15 billion valuation. The move comes as prediction markets draw deeper interest from crypto platforms, brokerages and regulated competitors.

Fun CEO Alex Fine says standalone crypto onramps and bridge interfaces are likely to disappear as applications embed payments into their own products. The shift would move Web3 closer to a Web2 style experience, where users focus on the app action rather than the payment plumbing underneath.

New York has sued Kalshi, alleging the prediction-market platform offers sports and event wagers without a gaming license. The state is seeking to bar the company from operating what officials describe as an unlicensed gambling business, while pursuing restitution, damages and civil penalties.

EUR/USD advanced to its strongest level since July 16 after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and markets reassessed the path for policy. Technical traders are now focused on whether the pair can break higher or retreat toward the lower side of its channel at 1.1372.

Bitcoin remained locked in a nearly two month consolidation as traders awaited the July Federal Reserve interest rate decision. Technical traders are watching whether BTC/USD can clear $66,820 after recovering from this month’s low of $57,200.

A federal judge has granted a preliminary injunction blocking Minnesota’s prediction market ban from taking effect against Kalshi, Polymarket and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The court found the challengers are likely to succeed in arguing that federal commodities law preempts the state statute.

Fanatics has agreed to acquire Water Street Labs and CX Clearinghouse from BGC Group, giving the sports company control of federally regulated prediction market infrastructure. The transaction strengthens its ability to list, clear and settle event contracts as competition grows across sports, finance and crypto-linked platforms.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has cautioned prediction market operators that broad, template-style event contract certifications can fall short of regulatory requirements. The advisory underscores growing scrutiny of a fast-expanding market that includes political, sports and other event-based contracts.

Bitcoin options traders have built a major concentration of open interest around the $70,000 and $72,000 strikes on Deribit. The positioning is heavily tilted toward calls, though some bullish bets have recently been trimmed as CLARITY Act expectations cooled.

Bitcoin traded near $65,500 as higher oil prices, rising Treasury yields and renewed geopolitical tension weighed on risk appetite. Crypto sentiment also weakened after key Senate Democrats criticized the latest Digital Asset Market Clarity Act draft, pushing passage odds down to 38%.

Polymarket traders lifted the implied odds that the Clarity Act becomes law this year to about 43%, up from 32% on Friday. The move followed unconfirmed reports that President Trump accepted an ethics provision, while Democrats have not yet seen bill text and no text has been publicly released.

AUD/USD is hovering near 0.7000 after rebounding from this month’s low, but technical resistance and geopolitical oil risks are keeping traders cautious. Australian jobs data due Thursday could shape the next move as market participants watch 0.7050 and 0.6865.

Hyperliquid is preparing an enhancement to its HIP-4 upgrade that would allow permissionless deployment of prediction markets on the decentralized exchange. The feature is slated to reach testnet before mainnet, while deployers would need to stake HYPE and operate within validator-approved templates.

France’s gambling regulator has ordered internet service providers to block Polymarket after classifying the prediction market as an unauthorized gambling site. The move follows concerns over real time odds, user access from France, weather related bets and consumer protection gaps.

Polymarket traders now assign the CLARITY Act a 32% chance of passing by the stated deadline, the lowest level since the market opened in January. Senate negotiations remain stuck on bipartisan ethics language, even as crypto executives press Congress for clear SEC and CFTC boundaries.

Bitcoin’s latest advance has lost momentum as investors reassess the meaning of softer U.S. inflation data for Federal Reserve policy. With producer price data due later today and oil prices pressuring the inflation outlook, crypto traders are watching macro signals closely.

Prediction markets posted a record breakout during the first month of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with Kalshi, Polymarket and Rothera drawing massive volume and new users. The surge showed how event contracts are moving deeper into mainstream sports wagering and institutional trading circles.