ETF Flows

A historically watched bitcoin strategy tied to halving cycles is pointing to a late November accumulation window and a possible exit around mid-August 2029. Market participants say the signal may be less reliable in an era when U.S. spot bitcoin ETF flows can outweigh miner supply.

Bitcoin steadied near $64,000 after the Federal Reserve kept rates at 3.5%-3.75% in a hawkish 9-3 decision. Market views are divided on whether tighter liquidity bites immediately or whether September becomes the bigger test for BTC.

U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs have posted two straight weeks of inflows, drawing $273 million after an eight-week outflow streak of more than $8 billion. The turnaround has improved sentiment, but the scale remains modest compared with the recent exodus from the funds.

Bitcoin retreated after touching a two-week high of $64,500, interrupting its strongest run of gains since March. Weak ETF flows, a negative Coinbase premium and sliding futures open interest are raising questions about whether the July rebound has durable spot demand behind it.

U.S.-listed bitcoin ETFs recorded $221.7 million in net inflows on Thursday, ending a bruising 10-day run of withdrawals. Fidelity’s FBTC led the rebound even as BlackRock’s IBIT posted an outflow.

U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs have attracted roughly $4.06 billion in net outflows so far in June, setting up the worst month since launch. Last week alone, investors pulled about $1.79 billion from the funds.

Bitcoin’s long-term holders, often called OG investors, have sharply reduced selling activity to the lowest level in nearly two years. The slowdown in profit-taking may be easing a key source of pressure on the market.

Bitcoin briefly moved above $67,000 but failed to keep pace with the broader relief rally in stocks and oil. Traders are waiting for the Iran deal to be signed and for the Federal Reserve’s next move before committing to risk.

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said his instinct is that Bitcoin likely bottomed near $60,000, while stressing that no one can know for sure. He still expects the asset to trade much higher by 2030 despite the latest pullback.

Bitcoin rebounds from $60K support but whale selling of 20,000 BTC and rising inflation fears suggest continued downside risk. Macro conditions and ETF outflows weaken sentiment.