Seasonality

Bitcoin is on pace to close July, August and September in positive territory, a sequence that has appeared only once before in its trading history. The prior case in 2012 was followed by an October pullback and then a major rally, though today’s market structure makes direct comparisons uncertain.

The S&P 500 is approaching a pivotal technical test as seasonal weakness lines up with a possible Elliott Wave decline. A break below 7,638 could shift attention toward the 7,100–7,200 area, while a hold may keep the bullish case alive.