Bearish Pressure Builds Across Precious Metals

What to Know

• Gold rejected again near 100-day moving average resistance
• Bearish moving average crossover reinforces gold downside risk
• Gold support zone aligns with key Fibonacci retracements
• Silver shows stronger relative structure than gold currently
• Rising 200-day averages remain critical downside targets

Bearish Continuation Patterns Strengthen

Precious metals are aligning in bearish continuation patterns. Both spot gold (XAU) and silver (XAG) have begun to weaken after testing resistance near the 100-day moving average. Although silver is showing relative technical strength, both metals continue to encounter resistance near the 100-day line. Notably, the 100-day average previously acted as dynamic support for each asset, highlighting the significance of the current rejection.

Gold Faces Reinforced Resistance

Gold completed a test of support at the 200-day moving average during the latest bearish correction. The sharp bullish response following that successful test confirmed the line’s significance as a long-term trend indicator for gold. However, the subsequent rebound found resistance near the 100-day and 50-day moving averages. That process continued this week with Thursday’s advance to a high of $4,765 failing to sustain a reclaim of the 20-day moving average.  A potentially bearish shooting star candlestick pattern further validated weakening short-term demand and fading upside momentum. 

This put gold in a position to continue its bearish correction that began following the January peak of $5,598. Resistance emerged as the 50-day average crossed below the 100-day average, reinforcing the bearish outlook. With the 50-day average now closer to current price action, it also provides a second layer of dynamic resistance.  

Fibonacci Levels Highlight Gold Support Zone

A lower swing high is likely, which increases the chance for a drop below the recent swing low at $4,501. That would put gold on track for another test of support at the 200-day moving average, now near $4,316 and rising. That level also sits roughly between the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $4,401 and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $4,268, creating a broader potential support zone. A sustained advance above the 100-day moving average would invalidate the bearish thesis.

Silver Shows Relative Strength

Silver is in a similar technically bearish position, but overall downward pressure appears less severe. This can be seen by lower swing highs that show the angle of descent improving, as price has declined overall. Gold, however, continues to show a steepening downward trajectory, reflecting relatively stronger selling pressure. 

A high of $82.13 was reached this week as silver attempted to reclaim the 100-day moving average, currently at $80.44. That high may establish a lower swing high, which would be bearish. Nonetheless, that level will represent key resistance, as a decisive rally above it would open the possibility for a recovery toward the prior lower swing high at $83.05. That would trigger a bullish reversal for the intermediate trend. 

200-Day Moving Average Remains Key for Silver

The 200-day moving average has not been tested recently for silver. A corrective low of $61.00 was reached in March, completing a 49.9% decline from the $118.50 peak. That decline also completed a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the prior upswing. Since then, silver has stabilized above that low, but the 200-day moving average remains the key downside target. It has risen above the prior low and is currently near $63.70 and rising. That increases the likelihood of a future test, while also raising the possibility that support may eventually form around a higher swing low. The 200-day moving average has not been tested as support since price began to rise away from the average after it was reclaimed in June 2025. 

Metals Approach Critical Near-Term Test

Overall, both gold and silver remain vulnerable to further downside pressure following failed rallies into key moving averages. While silver continues to show relative resilience versus gold, each metal is approaching a potentially important test of longer-term support zones that could help determine whether the current bearish corrections deepen further or begin to stabilize. 

For more daily precious metals forecasts and expert technical analysis on gold and silver, visit the Commodities Forecasts section to stay ahead of market trends.