This is Crypto Shift Daily Outlook, your essential morning read for daily developments in the crypto world. Published every weekday before the markets open, it offers a fast, curated look at key overnight moves, upcoming catalysts, and broader sentiment driving digital assets. If you track Bitcoin, altcoins, or crypto policy, this briefing helps you stay one step ahead.
What to Know
- Traders on prediction markets assign a 55% chance that bitcoin drops below $100K by year-end.
- Economic data signals U.S. stagflation and recession risks impacting crypto sentiment.
- Options markets show mixed views, with short-term bearish bets rising on bitcoin.
- Ether gains regulatory clarity, boosting hopes for spot ETH ETFs with staking.
- Altcoins lag behind majors amid broader market risk-off behavior.
Bitcoin Bears Gain Momentum Amid Economic Uncertainty
Crypto traders are increasingly cautious as concerns about a U.S. stagflation scenario take center stage. Data released over recent weeks has shown weakening manufacturing and service sector indexes, signaling an economic slowdown. On Polymarket, a decentralized platform for prediction contracts, the consensus has shifted to a majority that bitcoin will drop below the psychologically important $100K level before the end of 2025.
Polymarket’s contract titled “Will bitcoin dip below $100K before 2026” is currently priced around 55 cents, reflecting a 55% implied probability of this outcome. This shift highlights growing unease about economic growth and inflation persistence, which tend to dampen risk appetite.
Stephen Innes, Managing Partner at SPI Asset Management, commented on this gloomy backdrop:
“With both manufacturing and services ISMs now weaker than even the most pessimistic forecasts, the labor market could be heading for a sharp slowdown.”
He warned that non-farm payrolls could fall by over 100,000 jobs monthly — a clear sign of recession risk.
Despite inflation sticking around stubbornly, market participants are increasingly pricing in Federal Reserve rate cuts to counter the slowdown. However, the relationship between rate cuts and crypto prices remains complex in the current environment.
Options Markets Reveal Cautious Sentiment
While traditionally, lower interest rates can encourage investments in risk assets like bitcoin, current dynamics are nuanced. Wall Street traders appear to anticipate some short-term pain, leading to a rise in bearish momentum trades.
Deribit options data shows short-term put options (which profit from price declines) are more expensive than calls, signaling a tilt toward downside protection. However, the options market is less bearish than the prediction market; December’s $100K put has a delta of -0.25, suggesting a roughly 25% chance of finishing in-the-money, lower than Polymarket’s 55%.
Ether Benefits from Regulatory Clarity
Unlike bitcoin, ether is enjoying positive regulatory developments that could boost its market prospects. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) recently clarified that certain staking activities and receipt of tokens do not constitute securities offerings under specific conditions. This pivotal guidance clears the way for potential approval of spot ether ETFs featuring staking.
This development positions ether as a “yield-generating” crypto asset, sometimes likened to an “internet bond,” which could attract more institutional capital and long-term holders seeking passive income.
Altcoins Continue to Lag
Despite occasional rallies, altcoins broadly have been weaker compared to bitcoin and ether. This reflects heightened risk aversion among investors who favor major tokens during uncertain periods.
Key Industry Moves and Market Sentiment
- Japan’s SBI, the country’s largest bank, announced an ETF linked to both bitcoin and XRP, signaling growing institutional adoption in Asia.
- The MetaMask community is considering launching “MetaMask USD,” a native stablecoin developed through a partnership with Stripe’s payments infrastructure, which could broaden DeFi usability.
- On traditional markets, S&P 500 futures point to a modest positive open (+0.2%), while the dollar index remains stable near 98.70, reflecting mixed global risk sentiment.
What to Watch
Crypto Events
- Aug. 7, 10 a.m.: Circle hosts a webinar on the GENIUS Act and the U.S. federal stablecoin framework.
- Aug. 15: Record date for FTX claims distribution for eligible holders.
- Aug. 18: Coinbase Derivatives launches nano SOL and nano XRP perpetual futures.
Macro Events
- Aug. 6, 2 p.m.: Fed Governor Lisa Cook speaks on the U.S. and global economy.
- Aug. 7, 12:01 a.m.: New U.S. reciprocal tariffs take effect, impacting trade partners.
- Aug. 7, 8 a.m.: Mexico releases July CPI data.
- Aug. 7, 3 p.m.: Banco de México announces monetary policy decision.
- Aug. 8: Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler’s resignation becomes effective.
Earnings Calendar
- Aug. 7: Block, CleanSpark, Coincheck Group, Cipher Mining, Hut 8 reports earnings.
- Aug. 8: TeraWulf reports.
- Aug. 11-12: Exodus Movement, Bitfarms, and Fold Holdings report.
Market Snapshot
Top Cryptos
- BTC: $114,105.72 (+0.24%, 24h: -0.55%)
- ETH: $3,626.69 (+1.39%, 24h: -1.34%)
Other Metrics
- ETH CESR staking rate: 2.93%
- BTC funding rate (Binance): 0.0086% (annualized 9.37%)
- BTC Dominance: 61.82% (unchanged)
- ETH/BTC ratio: 0.03177 (+0.38%)
- Hashrate (7-day avg): 952 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $56.64
- Total BTC Fees (24h): 3.67 BTC / $418,957
- CME Futures Open Interest: 137,790 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 33.7 oz
- BTC vs gold market cap: 9.53%
Technical Analysis
The ETH/BTC pair has formed a classic bull flag pattern on the daily chart — a technical formation signaling a potential continuation of ether’s outperformance relative to bitcoin. A breakout above the flag’s upper boundary could mark the next rally phase for ETH against BTC, attracting traders focused on relative strength.
Frequently Asked Questions About Bitcoin’s Price Outlook
What is driving traders to bet on bitcoin falling below $100K this year?
Recent economic data points to a weakening U.S. economy, including soft manufacturing and service sector indexes, along with sticky inflation. These factors increase fears of stagflation and recession, causing traders to expect bitcoin prices to dip below $100K.
How reliable are prediction markets like Polymarket in forecasting bitcoin’s price?
Prediction markets aggregate collective sentiment and often reflect near-term probabilities. While useful, they are not guarantees. Polymarket currently signals a 55% chance of sub-$100K bitcoin, but this can change with new data and market shifts.
Why is the options market less bearish than prediction markets?
Options traders use metrics like delta to gauge probabilities. Currently, the delta on December $100K puts suggests about a 25% chance of finishing in-the-money, indicating less bearishness compared to Polymarket’s 55%. This difference reflects varied risk appetites and time horizons.
How does SEC guidance on staking affect ether?
The SEC clarified that certain staking activities and token receipts don’t qualify as securities offerings. This regulatory clarity opens the door for spot ETH ETFs with staking, boosting ether’s attractiveness as a yield-generating asset.
Why are altcoins underperforming bitcoin and ether?
Amid economic uncertainty, investors tend to favor major cryptocurrencies with more liquidity and perceived stability. Altcoins generally carry higher risk and have lagged during recent risk-off sentiment in the broader crypto market.
Want this update delivered every morning? Subscribe to the FXCOINZ Crypto Shift Daily Outlook for your daily edge.
Comments (0)
Loading...