Long-Term Breakout and Base Formation
Bitcoin (BTC) broke out of a long-term basing pattern to a new trend high in November 2024. The base formed into a cup-with-handle, which is characteristically seen during trend continuations in strong bull phases. After the breakout, BTC reached $109,936 in December 2024 before pulling back, setting the stage for a higher swing low. That pivot developed in April 2025 at $74,458, where price tested both a prior resistance zone and the 50-week moving average before reversing higher. The rally carried BTC to a record high of $124,501 in August, confirming the strength of the larger trend.
Moving Averages Reinforce Bullish Structure
History shows that each significant pullback since March has found support around the 50-week moving average, including corrections in August and September 2024, and again in April 2025. A lower uptrend line now connects from the April 2025 swing low, with the 50-week average closely tracking the trendline. Together, these levels form dynamic support at the bottom boundary of a rising trend channel.
Support Test and Weekly Reversal
Following August’s record high, BTC retraced to retest support, establishing a pullback low at $107,265 in early September. This level aligned with prior resistance from December 2024 and the rising 20-week average at $110,150, highlighting a healthy support zone. A bullish weekly reversal began the week of September 8, with confirmation requiring a close above $113,392. Notably, the breakout also cleared a two-week high, providing further indication of strength.
Acceleration in Momentum
The recent reversal from the 20-week average, rather than the longer-term 50-week, suggests acceleration in the uptrend. Such behavior is often seen when momentum builds within a broader bullish structure. This pullback is the first corrective phase since the new high breakout in July, setting BTC up to challenge and potentially exceed its $124,501 record high from August.
Fibonacci Extensions and Pattern Targets
Upside targets emerge from measured moves and Fibonacci extensions. The 161.8% extension of the September correction projects $129,323 as the first key level. Beyond that, the $135,146 – $136,170 zone marks a stronger area of confluence, combining a 100% measured ABCD pattern with a long-term Fibonacci projection derived from the November 2024 correction. This overlap increases the credibility of the target as a potential resistance zone.
Rising Channel Adds to Outlook
A parallel trend channel drawn from April’s swing low frames Bitcoin’s advance. The channel’s center line has repeatedly acted as resistance since May and could again serve as a technical ceiling in the next rally. Importantly, the $135,000 target area aligns below this mid-line, implying demand may be strong enough to reach that zone before facing the next layer of resistance. Together, these technical elements reinforce the view that Bitcoin remains firmly in a long-term bull trend, with upside potential extending toward and beyond $135,000.
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