Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Holds Above $4,800 After Trump’s Greenland U-Turn

What to Know

• Gold remains supported above the $4,800 psychological level
• Improved risk appetite has capped near-term upside
• Technical indicators suggest fading bearish momentum
• Key Fibonacci levels define the short-term trading range
• Upcoming US inflation data could act as the next catalyst

Gold prices are consolidating above the $4,800 level after a volatile trading session, as improving global risk sentiment limits upside momentum while longer-term bullish structure remains intact. The precious metal initially came under pressure amid easing geopolitical tensions and a sharp rebound in equities, yet buyers continue to defend key technical levels, suggesting that the broader uptrend has not been invalidated.

As markets digest shifting political signals from the United States and await critical inflation data, gold now enters a consolidation phase where technical structure and macro drivers will determine the next directional move.

Gold Technical Forecast: Bullish Structure Still Intact

From a technical perspective, gold continues to trade above its 100-period Simple Moving Average, which reinforces the broader bullish bias despite recent pullbacks. The ability of XAU/USD to hold above this moving average suggests that buyers remain active on dips rather than exiting positions entirely.

Momentum indicators point to stabilization rather than trend reversal. The MACD remains in negative territory but shows signs of losing downside momentum, indicating that selling pressure is gradually fading. At the same time, the Relative Strength Index has recovered toward neutral territory, supporting the view that gold is transitioning into a consolidation phase rather than entering a deeper correction.

Fibonacci analysis highlights the $4,805 area as a near-term pivot zone. A sustained move above this level would likely encourage renewed upside attempts toward recent highs. On the downside, initial support emerges near $4,754, with stronger demand expected closer to the $4,710 region if selling pressure intensifies.

Fundamental Outlook: Risk-On Mood vs Structural Support

Fundamentally, gold is facing short-term headwinds as global risk sentiment improves. Recent political developments in the United States, including a softening stance on trade and geopolitical issues, have reduced demand for safe-haven assets. Equity markets have responded positively, drawing capital away from defensive positions such as gold.

However, the broader macro backdrop continues to offer underlying support. Expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a cautious policy stance, combined with lingering concerns about political influence on monetary policy, are preventing the US dollar from staging a sustained rally. This limits downside pressure on non-yielding assets like gold.

In addition, while near-term rate cuts may be off the table, markets continue to price in easing further out on the horizon. This longer-term outlook keeps gold attractive as a hedge against policy uncertainty and potential inflation surprises.

Gold Price Outlook: Consolidation Before the Next Move

Looking ahead, gold appears poised for a period of range-bound trading rather than an immediate breakout. The balance between improving risk appetite and structural macro support suggests that XAU/USD may continue oscillating above $4,700 while struggling to extend decisively beyond recent highs.

A bullish continuation scenario would likely require either a resurgence in geopolitical uncertainty or softer-than-expected US inflation data. Conversely, a sustained break below key technical supports could trigger a deeper corrective phase, though such a move would currently be viewed as corrective rather than trend-ending.

Overall, the medium-term outlook remains constructive, with pullbacks increasingly viewed as potential accumulation opportunities rather than signals of trend exhaustion.

Gold Forecast Summary

Gold’s ability to hold above $4,800 highlights the resilience of the broader uptrend, even as near-term sentiment turns more risk-friendly. While upside momentum has slowed, technical and fundamental factors suggest consolidation rather than reversal, keeping the bullish outlook intact heading into key US data releases.

Gold Frequently Asked Questions (Q&A)

Is gold still bullish above $4,800?

Yes. As long as gold remains above key moving averages and Fibonacci support levels, the broader bullish structure remains intact despite short-term consolidation.

Why has gold upside been limited recently?

Improved global risk sentiment and rising equity markets have reduced demand for safe-haven assets, temporarily capping gold’s upside.

What could trigger the next gold breakout?

A weaker US inflation print, renewed geopolitical tensions, or signs of dovish monetary policy expectations could fuel renewed upside momentum.

Is a deeper correction likely for gold?

While short-term pullbacks are possible, current technical and macro conditions suggest any decline would likely remain corrective unless key supports fail decisively.

About Gold (XAU/USD)

In the forex market, gold behaves like a currency, most commonly traded against the US Dollar (USD). Its internationally recognized code is XAU, and the XAU/USD pair indicates how many dollars are required to buy one troy ounce of gold.

Gold is widely regarded as a safe-haven asset, often sought during periods of market volatility, economic uncertainty, or currency instability. It is also considered a reliable hedge against inflation, as it is not tied to any specific government or central issuer.

Central banks are among the largest holders of gold, using it to diversify reserves and strengthen national currency credibility during turbulent times. The United States possesses the largest official gold reserves globally, reflecting its strategic economic importance.

Gold prices are influenced by a mix of macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. Geopolitical crises, fears of recession, or market turbulence can quickly drive demand higher. Being a non-yielding asset, gold tends to rise when interest rates fall, whereas higher borrowing costs can exert downward pressure. Additionally, because gold is priced in dollars, the strength of the USD plays a major role: a strong dollar can cap gold gains, while a weaker dollar often pushes prices higher.

Key Organizations Affecting Gold (XAU/USD)

• World Gold Council (WGC): Promotes and supports global demand for gold.
• London Bullion Market Association (LBMA): Oversees the wholesale over-the-counter gold and silver market in London, primarily through major banks, refiners, and bullion dealers.
• COMEX (Commodity Exchange): The main trading platform for gold futures, now part of CME Group.
• Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange Society (CGSE): Represents gold trading firms in Hong Kong and facilitates market activity.
• Central banks: Institutions like the Federal Reserve (Fed), European Central Bank (ECB), and People’s Bank of China (PBoC) impact gold prices via monetary policy decisions.

Influential People in the Gold Market

Some notable figures who can sway gold prices include:

• Neal Froneman: Chairman of the World Gold Council.
• Scott Bessent: US Treasury Secretary.
• Xi Jinping: President of China.
• Members of the LBMA: Key decision-makers in the London bullion market.

Key Factors Driving XAU/USD

Traders monitor several variables to understand gold price dynamics:

• Supply and demand: Global production and consumption balance affects pricing.
• Economic uncertainty and currency strength: Gold thrives when markets are volatile or when currencies weaken.
• Industrial and practical use: Applications in technology, jewelry, and manufacturing create steady demand.

Assets That Influence Gold

• Currencies: USD and EUR are the most influential, with other forex pairs like GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD, and USD/CAD also impacting price.
• Commodities: Silver, platinum, and other precious metals have a correlation with gold movements.
• Bonds: US Treasury Notes and German Bunds provide benchmark interest rate influence.
• Indices: Key benchmarks include the HUI (NYSE Arca Gold BUGS), XAU (Philadelphia Gold & Silver Index), and GDM (NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index).
• Exchanges: Gold trades actively on COMEX, Chicago Board of Trade, London Bullion Market, Euronext/LIFFE, Tokyo Commodity Exchange, Bolsa de Mercadorias e Futuros, and Korea Futures Exchange.

For more daily precious metals forecasts and expert technical analysis on gold, visit our Forecasts section to stay ahead of market trends.