XRP Eyes Third Breakout Attempt from Long-Term Bull Base

XRPUSD — Ripple’s token versus the U.S. dollar — has spent more than six years building a large basing structure since peaking at $3.32 in January 2018.

A Multi-Year Base Still in Play

Over that time, a cup-with-handle basing formation has taken shape, with the beginning of the handle portion testing resistance around the 2018 high earlier this year. In January, XRP reached a slightly higher high of $3.40 before retreating to test the 50.0% retracement zone, which held as support with a low of $2.73. That low likely marked the bottom of the

Momentum then improved, driving XRP to a new all-time high of $3.67 last month in what became the second breakout attempt from the basing pattern. As in January, the move faltered, with July closing back under the prior trend high of $3.40. While both breakouts failed to sustain gains, the overall long-term trend structure remains intact, and the pattern says the bulls remain in charge. 

Inside Month Could Set the Stage

August is on track to form an inside month – a price range contained entirely within July’s range. This kind of pause often precedes price expansion and can define the next key support and resistance levels. Current monthly support sits at $2.73 and the high is $3.38. A decisive break beyond the inside month range could be the catalyst for a renewed push higher.

Fractal Bull Flags on the Daily Chart

Zooming into the daily timeframe reveals a smaller bull flag forming after the August 7 breakout from a larger flag pattern. Interestingly, the smaller flag mirrors the earlier one — a fractal pattern that reinforces bullish probabilities when both align. At least there is a chance of that possibility.

So far, the new flag has held support near the 20-day simple moving average (currently around $3.11). While aggressive traders may anticipate an early breakout, a more conservative approach would be to wait for a clear move above $3.38, the recent short-term trend high. A breakout should ideally be accompanied by strong volume and momentum; otherwise, the risk of another failed attempt increases.

Upside Targets if Breakout Holds

If XRP clears $3.66 — last month’s high — it would mark a confirmed breakout from the long-term base. On the daily chart, the smaller bull flag projects an initial target near $3.79. Above that, Fibonacci analysis highlights $3.92 (127.2% extension) as a secondary objective.

On the broader monthly chart, a sustained breakout opens the way to a longer-term target around $4.19, aligning with the next measured move projection from the cup-with-handle structure.

Long-Term Outlook

While XRP has twice failed to sustain long-term breakouts this year, the persistence of bullish patterns across multiple timeframes suggests the eventual move could be significant. Traders should watch for a decisive break above $3.38 in the near term, with $3.66 as the major line in the sand for confirming a long-term bullish continuation. Until then, consolidation inside the current patterns is likely to dominate price action.

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