EL Nino

Natural gas futures are under pressure as November loses the $3.00 level and slips below its 50-day moving average. Heavy production, elevated inventories, and weak winter contracts are keeping sellers in control unless storage or weather data deliver a bullish surprise.

October natural gas futures are holding above a key technical line as hotter mid-September forecasts keep power-sector demand elevated. Still, strong production, high storage expectations and a potentially powerful El Niño pattern remain major obstacles for bulls.

Coffee Arabica ended the week near the $292.00 area after a decisive break below $300.00 kept bearish momentum in control. Traders are now watching Brazil crop flows, El Niño uncertainty, shipping constraints and a speculative weekly range between $279.00 and $314.00.

Arabica coffee is hovering near a closely watched breakout zone as delayed harvesting and exceptionally low inventories keep near-term supply concerns alive. Yet forecasts for record Brazil and global coffee output in 2026/27 leave buyers facing a major risk once delayed beans reach the market.

Record-setting heat across Texas is keeping natural gas demand elevated, with traders watching whether ERCOT consumption can remain near peak levels. Supply remains the counterweight as active rigs stay near recent highs, storage remains ample, and new Permian pipeline capacity is set to reach Henry Hub.

Cocoa remains caught between a heavy near-term supply backdrop and a tightening forward crop outlook. Technical traders are watching whether prices can reclaim 6,418 or remain vulnerable to a deeper slide toward the 2,981 to 2,753 band.

Natural gas prices enter a pivotal stretch with above-normal heat still supporting power burn across the central and eastern United States. Yet fading late-July temperature forecasts, storage concerns and El Niño-linked winter expectations continue to keep downside risks in focus.

Natural gas futures remain under pressure as stronger wind generation, elevated production and storage rebuilding weaken the bullish case. Winter demand expectations are also being challenged by increasingly confident El Niño forecasts that point to milder conditions across key northern demand regions.

Natural gas futures are holding near key technical support as traders await the latest EIA inventory reading. Strong production, soft consumption and elevated inventories continue to favor sellers, though European LNG demand remains a potential bullish wildcard.